The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

基于可拓工程的征地区片划分研究

研究目的:现有研究方法难以全面反映征地区片的差异性及其性质的可变性,探索征地区片划分的有效方法。研究方法:可拓工程方法。研究结果:构建了征地区片划分的因素指标和量化方法,运用可拓理论建立征地区片划分的可拓模型。研究结论:浙江省玉环县征地区片划分的应用实践表明该可拓模型能反映征地区片的动态性和可变性,从而提高区片划分的科学性与客观性。     

创新机制 转变方式 努力开创森林保护和经营新局面

湖南省紧紧围绕国家林业局采伐管理改革具体部署:推进采伐分类管理,使采伐管理范围更加明确;编制森林经营方案,使限额管理更加科学;创新分配机制,使采伐指标分配更加公平;简化审批程序,使采伐指标申请更加便捷;加强监督管理,使采伐秩序更加规范。     

EXPLAINING FIRM CAPITAL STRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF AGENCY THEORY VS. TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS

The study of capital structure has increasingly gained importance in strategic management research. Paradigms derived from organizational economics have also gained popularity in explaining firm actions. Agency theory and transaction cost economics represent two such paradigms that rely on the notion of market imperfections. Notwithstanding the similarities between them, these two offer different explanations of the role of debt and equity in a firm. The governance abilities of the financing structures and the nature of assets of the firm provide two key sources of differences. Viewing capital structure from transaction cost economics gives rise to predictions that are contradictory to those presented by agency theory. It is argued that the extant evidence mainly supports the transaction cost viewpoint. Two organizational phenomena—leveraged buyouts and product diversification—are used to highlight the comparison.     

STRATEGY AND CONTROL IN SUPPLIER–DISTRIBUTOR RELATIONSHIPS: AN AGENCY PERSPECTIVE

This paper examines the influence of competitive strategy on the relationship between suppliers and their distribution networks. Drawing on agency theory, hypotheses are developed specifying the appropriate match between manufacturer strategies and systems of control within distribution channels. Cluster analysis is used to show distinct differences in channel management and structure for the three generic strategies of cost leadership, differentiation and focus. Results suggest that variation in control relationships may be explained by the demands posed by manufacturers' competitive strategies. This study therefore extends the applicability of Porter's typology to the specific structure of distribution channels and shows that agency theory can provide insights into the economic basis of interorganizational relationships.     

AN EVOLUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE ON DIVERSIFICATION AND CORPORATE RESTRUCTURING: ENTRY,EXIT, AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DURING 1981–89

This study proposes a theoretical perspective that firms engage in continuous search and selection activities in order to improve their knowledge base and thereby improve their performance. This general framework is applied to the context of corporate evolution. Entry and exit activities are understood as search and selection undertaken by the firm to improve their performance. One of the compelling features of this framework is that firms learn from their past entry experience and approach the next entry in a more focused and directed manner over time. Also, firms acquire additional knowledge from each entry event while applying their existing knowledge base. With a longitudinal (1981–89) data base on entry and exit activities of all publicly traded manufacturing firms in the United States, this study shows that applicability of the firm's knowledge base plays an important role in predicting which businesses a firm enters or exits. Firms sequentially enter businesses of similar human resource profiles and firms are more likely to divest lines of business of different profiles. Corporate-level analysis shows that such well-directed entry and exit contribute to the improvement of a firm's profitability.     

基于演化博弈论的知识联盟动态复杂性分析

知识联盟是企业间为共同创造知识和进行知识共享而建立的联盟。本文从演化博弈论的角度,探讨了进行知识联盟的企业交互活动的复杂性可能对异质知识流的扩散和知识联盟稳定性造成多重可能结果。分析表明：一个企业实施知识流的更新（如建立知识联盟）和顺利扩散,取决于不同因素的作用,并表现出不同的复杂演化结果。对于已建立知识联盟的企业来说。这些不同的结果会对知识联盟的稳定性产生影响。如果企业最终都达到主动变流知识的策略选择状态,则异质知识得以在企业间扩散,从而强化企业间的知识联盟,但如果企业最终没有达到这一状态,则企业知识联盟的稳定性将被削弱。     

农民工城镇医疗保险与新型农村合作医疗的衔接

现阶段我国正加强社会保障的制度建设.在城镇,今后社会保障的一个重要内容是将农民工纳入社会保险,首先保障其大病(住院)医疗和工伤;在农村,正试点新型农村合作医疗,主要通过大病统筹的方式解决农民的医疗风险.农民工是一特殊群体,他们多数流动于城市和农村之间.他们是只参加城镇的社会医疗保险体系或新型农村合作医疗?抑或可以两者同时参加?本文作者根据大量的调查和我国社会保障制度的设计,提出了自己的观点:鉴于两者的保障程度有限,近期不宜作出硬性规定,两者的结合可以提高农民工医疗保障的程度.     

进城农民工需要满足的行为选择模型

进城农民工能否实现城市化,取决于其行为选择,而这又与进城农民工的需要满足直接相关.本研究以量表测试进城农民工需要状况,再通过因素分析分别从量表中提取因子,用相关分析法找出相关因子,最后用多元回归分析的逐步进入法算出因子间的相关系数和回归系数,根据回归方程建立了模型.     

怎样看待当前的货币信贷形势——基于科学发展观的一个视角

针对当前我国经济领域中存在的货币信贷快速增长和固定资产投资反弹现象,本文从科学发展观视角全面剖析了当前货币信贷的运行轨迹,并就货币信贷快速增长与固定资产投资反弹可能引发的相关问题进行了思考.本文认为,当前我国货币信贷快速增长的根源在于人民币汇率的错配与国内实行的低利率甚至负利率所致,因此,当前我国的政策应当重点从加快利率市场化改革、加快汇率市场化改革、加快推进金融体制改革和加快推动金融市场建设等4个方面入手.