Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets

We examine the presence or absence of asymmetric volatility in the exchange rates of Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY), all against US dollar. Our investigation is based on a variant of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model, using daily realized variance and return series from 1996 to 2004. We find that a depreciation against USD leads to significantly greater volatility than an appreciation for AUD and GBP, whereas the opposite is true for JPY. Relative to volatility on days following a positive one-standard-deviation return, volatility on days following a negative one-standard-deviation return is higher by 6.6% for AUD, 6.1% for GBP, and 21.2% for JPY. The realized volatility of EUR appears to be symmetric. These results are robust to the removal of jump component from realized volatility and the sub-samplings defined by structural-changes. The asymmetry in AUD, GBP and JPY appears to be embedded in the continuous component of realized volatility rather than the jump component.     

伪满时期东北农业雇工研究

伪满时期,由于日本帝国主义的入侵,影响和改变了东北农村的社会经济结构和农民的生存环境.雇工(或雇农)作为东北农民社会的一个阶层,在这期间经历了极为显著的变化,诸如雇农数量激增;雇农内部结构发生变化;雇佣劳动在农业劳动中所占比率上升;雇农群地域分布的不平衡性;雇工形态及雇工工资的变化;雇工家庭生活水平的下降等.     

旅行社的旅游线路优化设置问题探讨

尽管在旅游线路的设计过程中需要解决的问题很多,但从优化的角度而言,如何设计出一条能实现出发地与目的地间的最短路径目标,便是其中的最为关键性的一个问题。由于不同的交通方式的不同组合能对应着不同的路程、时间与成本问题,因而,如何通过有效的选择来形成最佳的旅游线路也就有了相当的必要性。此外,在旅游线路设计与安排过程中,旅行社除了要合理安排和规划旅游线路的长度以力求不走回头路、不走冤枉路和形成有效的闭合回路外,还需充分考虑到其中的线路在时间安排上的合理问题;否则,再好的线路安排也会失去其内在的价值与影响力。     

Generalized piecewise linear histograms

We extend the concept of piecewise linear histogram introduced recently by Beirlant, Berlinet and Györfi. The disadvantage of that histogram is that in many models it takes on negative values with probability close to 1. We show that for a wide set of models, the extended class of estimates contains a bona fide density with probability tending to 1 as the sample size n increases to infinity. The mean integrated absolute error in the extended class of estimators decreases with the same rate n^–2/5 as in the original narrower class.     

现代企业财务风险的测定和防范

在市场竞争环境下，现代企业面临的各种风险不断增多，财务风险作为企业特有的风险日益突出，是企业利用融资财务杠杆的直接后果，企业必须重视财务风险的测定和防范，以增强企业财务实力。     

战后日本对外贸易发展的动态比较优势分析

二战后日本经济从一片废墟中迅速崛起成功跻身于发达国家行列，其对外贸易在战后的50多年间一直保持着稳定的增长。日本出口商品结构沿着劳动密集型、资本密集型、知识和技术密集型的轨迹发展，逐步升级，顺应了世界经济产业结构调整的步伐，为其对外贸易的持续发展奠定了坚实的基础。日本对外贸易遵循的是动态比较优势原理，其经验对我国当前外贸发展具有重要的借鉴意义。     

西气东输工程用感应加热弯管技术条件探讨

在对国外X70管线弯管技术条件进行调查分析与研究的基础上，对其中的几个关键技术问题包括母管成分，弯管的制造工艺和技术路线，强度与韧性要求，屈强比，Cu污染问题等进行了讨论。一些观点在西气东输感应加弯管技术条件中得到应用。     

油品测试用规格仪器国产化回眸

指出规格仪器是油品测试方法标准化的基础，总结了油品测试用规格仪器国产化的过程，并对今后的发展方向加以分析。     

论科研选题应注意的几个问题

科研选题要善于把握选题的原别和导向，注意课题的研究动态，把握课题的研究范围，发挥出科研人员的优势，设计出切实可行的研究路线。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.