Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。     

Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany

A crucial condition for the existence of a credit channel through bank loansis that monetary policy should be able to change bank loan supply. This papercontributes to the discussion on this issue by presenting empirical evidence fromdynamic panel estimations based on a dataset that comprises individual balancesheet information on all German banks. It shows that the average bank reduces itslending more sharply in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy measure the lowerits ratio of short-term interbank deposits to total assets. A dependence on its size canonly be found if explicitly controlled for this dominating effect. Overall, the evidenceis compatible with the existence of a credit channel but the results indicate that it is weakened by the network structures that exist in the German banking system.     

我国金融监管法律制度的反思与改造

作为部门行政法律制度建构的一部分,金融监管法律制度在国家经济生活中具有十分重要的作用。目前我国的金融监管法律制度还存在着较大的缺陷,突出表现在金融监管立法不完备,法律、法规混杂、重复、遗漏及空白之处甚多,对监管主体的规定存在缺失,央行的独立监管地位弱化,关于金融监管的手段、方法的规定不完善,以致造成执法缺乏力度。在国外资金大量涉入国内、国际金融及监管规则约束国内的金融机构之前,必须完备我国的金融监管法律制度。     

对称双支柱模式:当代金融体系发展的新趋向

经验分析表明：金融体系正在从不对称的双支柱模式或者单支柱模式向对称双支柱模式演变。对银行和资本市场功能的分析也支持了这一结论。在这一转变过程中，金融体系还表现出了“非银行化”特征。但是“非银行化”并不是金融体系发展的最终方向，而只是对称双支柱模式转变中的一个附属物。     

绿色财务管理的短期均衡分析

当前,生态问题日趋严重,这种状况的形成主要是人类自身行为造成的,人们虽然已经越来越多地认识到其危害性,但是在经济利益的驱使下,人类的这种破坏行为并没有真正停止或减少。作为微观经济主体的企业,它的行为对生态问题的影响非常重要,所以必须改变企业的经济行为。作为经济主体其目标就是为了获取经济利益,只有保证其有一定经济利益的情况下,来改变其行为以利于解决生态问题才是可行的。鉴于此,本文从市场上各类企业的经济行为特点入手,来探讨解决问题的途径。     

我国金融生态系统发展现状及其优化策略

金融体系是一个具有很多生态学特征的系统。本文运用系统论的观点，首先简述了金融生态系统概念与特征，然后分析了当前我国金融生态系统发展现状及其问题，最后提出了建设我国良性金融生态系统的基本策略思路。     

开放资本市场与国家金融安全

要成为一个经济强国，其资本市场一定要开放。资本市场一开放，将对该国的金融安全产生威胁。资本市场开放使国家减弱了对汇率、利率的调节能力。我国的国民经济高速发展，国际收支状况良好，人民币汇率稳定，证券市场有了一定的发展，因此具有一定的抗冲击能力。但目前，我国在资本市场抗冲击能力上仍存在不少问题。要提高资本市场抗冲击能力，就要选择有限制的直接开放模式。     

An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth.     

论我国商业银行金融风险预警指标体系

当今，我国金融体制改革日益深化，商业银行风险日趋增大，因此，建立健全商业银行金融风险预警机制已成为当务之急，所探讨的预警指标体系正是借鉴了国外的先进经验，并结合我国商业银行的实际业务而设计的，它共包含八大部分，涵盖了商业银行的主要经营业务，对于有效监控我国商业银行金融风险，提高其抵御风险的能力具有重要意义。