阿里巴巴并购饿了么的动因和财务风险分析

在经济全球化的背景下,为扩大企业经营规模,并购成为企业很好的选择。论文以阿里巴巴收购饿了么为例,研究阿里巴巴收购饿了么的动因,分析并购为阿里巴巴这个典型的互联网企业带来的财务风险,并为互联网企业的并购提供宝贵的建议。     

浅析企业战略成本管理存在的问题及对策

基于新冠肺炎疫情对企业的影响,做好战略成本管理工作对提高企业适应当前市场环境的能力、规避财务风险具有重要意义。论文结合工作实践经验,以战略成本管理的概述作为切入点,剖析企业战略成本管理的现状及存在的问题,提出解决战略成本管理问题的具体对策。     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

我国金融监管法律制度的反思与改造

作为部门行政法律制度建构的一部分,金融监管法律制度在国家经济生活中具有十分重要的作用。目前我国的金融监管法律制度还存在着较大的缺陷,突出表现在金融监管立法不完备,法律、法规混杂、重复、遗漏及空白之处甚多,对监管主体的规定存在缺失,央行的独立监管地位弱化,关于金融监管的手段、方法的规定不完善,以致造成执法缺乏力度。在国外资金大量涉入国内、国际金融及监管规则约束国内的金融机构之前,必须完备我国的金融监管法律制度。     

绿色财务管理的短期均衡分析

当前,生态问题日趋严重,这种状况的形成主要是人类自身行为造成的,人们虽然已经越来越多地认识到其危害性,但是在经济利益的驱使下,人类的这种破坏行为并没有真正停止或减少。作为微观经济主体的企业,它的行为对生态问题的影响非常重要,所以必须改变企业的经济行为。作为经济主体其目标就是为了获取经济利益,只有保证其有一定经济利益的情况下,来改变其行为以利于解决生态问题才是可行的。鉴于此,本文从市场上各类企业的经济行为特点入手,来探讨解决问题的途径。     

我国金融生态系统发展现状及其优化策略

金融体系是一个具有很多生态学特征的系统。本文运用系统论的观点，首先简述了金融生态系统概念与特征，然后分析了当前我国金融生态系统发展现状及其问题，最后提出了建设我国良性金融生态系统的基本策略思路。     

开放资本市场与国家金融安全

要成为一个经济强国，其资本市场一定要开放。资本市场一开放，将对该国的金融安全产生威胁。资本市场开放使国家减弱了对汇率、利率的调节能力。我国的国民经济高速发展，国际收支状况良好，人民币汇率稳定，证券市场有了一定的发展，因此具有一定的抗冲击能力。但目前，我国在资本市场抗冲击能力上仍存在不少问题。要提高资本市场抗冲击能力，就要选择有限制的直接开放模式。     

An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth.     

关于我国财政政策导向调整的研究

近年来我国实施的积极财政政策确实在很大程度上促进了经济和社会的发展。但是随着经济市场化程度的不断提高和经济环境的变化，这种积极财政政策也表现出诸多的不适应性。因此应适时调整财政政策导向以适应经济和社会发展的新要求。拟从我国近年来实施的积极财政政策的成效分析出发，阐述了当前调整财政政策导向的必然性，并提出了今后我国财政政策的调整方向。     

The optimal portfolio for the two-pillar mandatory pension system: the case of Poland

In the recent decade, there has been observed across the Central and Eastern European states the regulatory trend towards the increase of the non-financial (first) pension pillar size at the expense of the financial (second) pillar. It tends to question the consequences of this shift for the future retirement benefits. Applying the portfolio approach we address this issue by running a series of simulations to find out how to allocate pension contributions between both pillars in an optimal way. Our study contributes to the existing literature as follows. First, we do not perform the assessment of the predetermined regulatory solutions, but we look for an optimal one. Moreover, we allow our optimal rule to be time-varying, if necessary, which would be a true novelty in this research area. Second, we do not base our estimates on historical trends; rather, we apply the long-term economy’s projection to account for the society’s ageing impact, which is a crucially important factor for the solvency of the pension system. Adapting some of the simulation assumptions to fit the Polish case, our results confirm that current regulations underestimate the role of the capital pillar and the optimal allocation between both pillars should be time-varying.