An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.     

我国金融业“营改增”的现实考量和路径选择

我国金融业税负偏高、重复课税比较严重，不利于金融企业专业化分工协助和国际竞争力提高，也影响了增值税抵扣环节的完整性。金融业“营改增”是规范金融业流转税制的必然选择，可以避免货物和其他劳务重复课税，是解决税负不公、促进金融业发展的内在要求。金融业“营改增”应该合理确定应税项目和税基，合理确定税率和课税时点，合理确定税收收入的划分和归属。     

Business Incubators in China: A Financial Services Perspective

The business incubation industry in China has been booming since the mid-1990s. However, the lack of a well-developed financial services sector has become a major bottleneck to the growth of the industry. Based on our visits to 12 Chinese business incubators around the country and interviews with their executives, we present our perspective on the state of the incubator industry in China with special emphasis on incubators' financial services for their incubatees.     

金融生态平衡与我国的金融自由化模式分析

政府与市场的矛盾仍然是造成我国金融压抑的主要原因,转变金融自由化模式意义重大。本文从金融生态平衡的视角,理论分析了我国金融自由化改革的一般模式及其作用机制,研究表明金融生态平衡模式能够通过政府行为内生化、市场机制基础化和提供地位判断标准三个途径有效地协调政府行为和市场效率的矛盾,提高金融结构秩序合理性、金融自调节能力柔韧性和金融与经济的匹配性,是推动我国金融自由化改革的有效模式。     

Risk reporting quality: implications of academic research for financial reporting policy

In this paper, I survey empirical research on the relevance of firms’ financial report information for the evaluation of their risk. I recommend that financial reporting policymakers require or encourage firms to enhance their risk reporting quality in four ways. First, firms should report comprehensive income statements that: (1) use fair value or a similarly information-rich accounting measurement attribute and (2) separate the components of comprehensive income that are primarily driven by variation in cash flows from those that are primarily driven by variation in costs of capital. Such comprehensive income statements would provide users of financial reports with the flexibility to calculate alternative summary accounting numbers and to perform different types of risk assessment analyses. Second, firms should conduct and disclose the results of back-tests of prior significant accrual estimates, indicating any identified trends in and drivers of revisions to those estimates, and describing the effects of those revisions on current or future summary accounting numbers. Third, firms should aggregate and present risk disclosures in tabular or other well-structured formats that promote the usability of the information. Identifying existing best disclosure practices and encouraging new best practices are the most natural way to do this. Fourth, for model-dependent risk disclosures, firms should disclose the primary historical and forward-looking attributes of the models and their implementation in practice, sensitivity of the model outputs, and benchmarking of the models to standard portfolios of exposures.     

浅谈企业绩效评价中的财务指标体系

随着我国经济体制改革的深入,以财务数据为主的企业绩效评价指标的弊端逐步暴露。针对企业财务指标评价体系的局限性,应从增加非财务分析指标、引进现金流量指标以及实现企业价值最大化的目标入手,完善财务指标体系。     

金融资产规模、公允价值会计 与管理层过度自信

本文以2004-2009年持有证券资产的A股上市公司为样本，对金融资产规模的决定因素进行了理论和实证研究，得到以下研究结论：（1）公允价值会计是上市公司金融资产规模显著增加的解释因素；（2）管理层过度自信在成本计量模式下与金融资产规模只有弱相关性，但在公允价值会计下却与金融资产规模显著正相关；（3）受政府控制的公司、大股东持股比例高的公司在成本计量模式下有显著更低的金融资产规模，但在公允价值会计下，特别是当管理层过度自信时，金融资产规模却呈现为显著增加。上述结论解释了会计理念、管理层行为与金融风险的内在关联性：公允价值计量模式遵循的是价值相关性原则，要求把证券持有利得也计入资产价值和会计收益，这个未来价值理念激励了公司管理层和控股股东的金融投资行为。     

金融危机对我国银行理财产品影响及应对之策初探

由华尔街次贷危机引发的全球金融危机正在由虚拟经济向实体经济蔓延．由发达国家向发展中国家蔓延，中国也将不可避免的受到影响和波及，银行业理财产品市场也遭受了极大的考验。文章在对金融危机对我国银行理财产品影响分析的基础上，提出了应对之策。     

中国农民专业合作社金融支持研究——基于石家庄市的个案分析

近年来，在中央及地方政府的扶持倡导之下，中国农民专业合作社得到了迅速发展。但由于缺乏有效金融支持，中国农民专业合作社的持续发展受到很大制约。文章选取作为河北省省会的石家庄市的农民专业合作社进行个案研究，分析其金融支持不足的现状及成因，以点透面，为我国农民合作事业金融支持问题提供参考建议。     

企业集团财务结算中心模式研究——以厦门国际航空港集团有限公司为例

近年来,企业集团不断加强对资金的管理,逐步建立起一套新型的资金管理模式。文章以厦门国际航空港集团有限公司为例,详细分析了企业集团运用财务结算中心模式的优势,并通过实证分析加以说明。