Predicting uncertainty: the impact of risk measurement on value of real estate portfolios

This paper presents a theoretical framework for an assessment and valuation of real estate assets and funds, based on modern stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) models, which accurately captures the nature of related risks. We show that an accurate risk-adjusted valuation is particularly difficult for real estate investments, due to practical limits to diversification and difficulties in approximating total risk with systematic risk. We develop a risk assessment framework that includes idiosyncratic risk but focuses on insolvency risk related to a specific cash flow profile. We also present a methodology of rating this risk, using forecasts and simulations. We conclude that simulation techniques are a valuable tool in property risk assessment. Further, we show that cost of capital and value of assets depend on diversification of specific risks, investors can achieve in their portfolios.     

How training and innovation link to farm performance: a structural equation analysis

The complexity of modern farm management places great demands on the skill, knowledge and capability of farm managers and their families. Keeping abreast of emerging technologies and innovations that can affect each key farm enterprise, and knowing how best to marshal the resources required for profitable farm production, are key tasks of farm management. This study draws on a longitudinal data set of 240 broadacre farmers to compare and analyse their farm performance over a decade. Using structural equation modelling, we examine relationships between the farm family's involvement in training, their human capital, their use of various innovations and ultimately the linkages of these factors to farm financial and productivity performance. Several statistically significant inter‐relationships are found, and some factors are shown to have significant positive links to farm performance. We find that training undertaken by the farm family, the farm family's human capital and their use of innovations, particularly key cropping innovations, have significant beneficial impacts on farm performance. The farmer's skills in time and organisational management, their engagement in business planning and the unique environmental characteristics of the farm also significantly and positively influence farm performance.     

社会资本参与水利建设的典型模式及操作要点

水利是国民经济和社会发展的重要基础设施,也是国家创新投融资机制、鼓励社会资本发展的重要领域。通过大量的实地调研和案例收集整理,对当前国内社会资本参与水利工程建设运营的典型模式进行总结,重点分析了股权投资、特许经营、购买服务、设立融资平台4种不同模式下政府和社会资本合作的方式和途径,指出每种模式的主要特征、适用项目类型以及相应的操作要点。     

城市工业用地产出率影响因素及区域比较—— 地级城市面板数据分析

研究目的:发现城市工业用地产出率影响因素及其影响程度和区域差异,提出相应对策以促进工业集约用地。研究方法:根据土地功能理论和经济主体动力学关系导向原则构建城市工业用地产出率双向固定效应模型,利用地级城市面板数据估计并检验工业用地产出率影响因素及作用程度并进行区域比较。研究结果:城市工业用地投资强度、就业密度和全要素生产率对1999年来城市工业用地产出率增长的贡献率分别为21.3%、-7%和85.7%;它们对工业用地产出率的边际贡献由于东中西部工业用地集约度、产业类型、劳动素质不同而呈现出区域差异。研究结论:应遏制各地尤其是中西部工业新区建设中粗放用地行为、促进工业投资并加强工业区生活配套以提升投资强度和就业密度,应在工业用地配置和评价中更加重视全要素生产率指标,应推动中西部地区工业升级并在营商环境、基础设施等方面缩小与东部的差距。     

湖南省5市农地流转对农户增收及收入分配的影响

研究目的:从农户微观收入视角和收入差距变化视角,分析湖南省农村土地流转对不同参与农户增收及收入分配的影响。研究方法:统计分析法、多元线性回归模型和基尼系数测算法。研究结果:(1)农地流转有效增加了参与流转的农户家庭人均总收入,且转出户家庭人均收入的增长幅度高于转入户。(2)农地流转对转入户家庭人均收入、人均种植业收入增长具有显著正向影响的关键因素有家庭纯务农比例、单位面积土地收益、农业投入增加值;对转出户家庭人均收入、非农收入增长具有显著正向影响的关键因素有家庭在外打工比例、固定资产值、补偿金支付;其中土地流转面积和签订转租合同对流转户收入均具有显著正向影响。(3)家庭财富水平和人力资本水平的差异在农地流出后逐渐明显,拉大了转出户的收入差距;转入土地后农户家庭实现规模化经营和生产效益的增值,使转入户的收入差距缩小。研究结论:应针对不同类型农户制定差异化的政策,积极引导农户进行土地流转,提高流转效率,促进农户增收,缩小农户收入差距。     

The Antecedents and Consequences of Travelers' Need for Uniqueness: An Empirical Study of Restaurant Experiences

Dining out at a restaurant is one of the most important parts of travelers' tourism experience. The purpose of this research was to examine the antecedents and consequences of travelers' need for uniqueness (CNFU) in their restaurant experiences. Based on a literature review, three theoretical antecedents (perceived firm innovativeness (PFI), perceived firm uniqueness, and brand prestige) and three theoretical consequences (utilitarian value, hedonic value, and behavioral intentions) were proposed. During this process, it was theorized that consumers' uniqueness-seeking behaviors can be strengthened and/or weakened by three psychological moderators: attention to social comparison information (ATSCI), face consciousness, and materialism. By integrating the theoretical arguments, a structural model was proposed. The proposed model was tested using data collected from 379 travelers who had dined out at a luxury restaurant in the past three months. According to the data analysis results, PFI, perceived firm uniqueness, and brand prestige were all confirmed to be important factors in enhancing CNFU. Furthermore, it was determined that CNFU bears a positive impact on behavioral intentions, an impact that is mediated by perceived value. Lastly, the moderating roles of ATSCI and materialism were found to be significant. In the latter part of this research, managerial implications derived from the data analysis results are discussed.     

全球海运铁矿石市场承压解析与行业影响

世界钢产量峰期出现在2000年以后,其高速增长动力主要来源于中国,而中国铁矿石原矿资源禀赋的劣势,愈发刺激了中国对国际海运铁矿石的需求,致使中国铁矿石需求的对外依存度较高,与此同时,作为铁矿石纯进口国的中国难以主导铁矿石定价权。2011年国际铁矿石市场正值高位运行,大部分铁矿石生产商在高价驱使下,选择大幅增加投资成本扩建产能,海运铁矿石市场供需基本面开始倒转。2015年以来,铁矿石中国到岸价大幅下跌,铁矿石生产巨头由于低廉的现金生产成本也只能勉强盈利或者维持在盈亏平衡线附近,高成本矿被实质性挤压出局。而美国量化宽松政策收紧乃至退出,导致金融流动性降低,进一步巩固了全球铁矿石市场"供强需弱"的格局。由于国内高成本铁矿项目的退出,中国铁矿石需求对外依存度将会进一步升高。     

Citizens’ e-participation on agenda setting in local governance: Do individual social capital and e-participation management matter?

Although a growing body of literature has touted e-participation as a means of facilitating greater citizen participation in policy decision-making processes, little is known about the driving forces behind citizens’ use of e-participation. Based on a literature review of social capital and citizen participation, this study develops and tests a model proposing that three dimensions of social capital and three dimensions of citizen participation management should be positively associated with e-participation in agenda setting. Using data from a Korean e-participation survey conducted in 2009, we found that citizens tend to be more active e-participants when they have greater trust in government and are weakly tied to offline social groups. We also found that citizen participants’ perception of government responsiveness to their input can facilitate their e-participation. The study findings imply that local governments should pay more attention to the function of public trust in local government and provide quality feedback in response to citizen input. They should also be sensitive to how the social factors of e-participants can facilitate involvement in agenda setting.     

国有资本经营预算能够提高地方国有企业投资效率吗？

以A股地方国有上市公司为研究对象,从投资效率的角度考察国有资本经营预算制度的实施效果,并进一步检验其对企业价值的影响。研究发现,国有资本经营预算能够显著抑制地方国有企业的非效率投资,尤其是抑制过度投资行为,并且这种影响对处于市场化程度较低地区的地方国有企业更加显著。进一步研究发现,国有资本经营预算能够通过抑制非效率投资来促进地方国有企业价值的提升。     

The impact of earnings expectations on corporate downsizing

Research Summary: We propose that due to financial market pressures, managers are forward‐looking in their search and decision processes and focus on meeting performance targets set by the financial community. Using panel data on S&P 100 companies, we find that pressure felt by management to meet the analyst consensus earnings estimate influences the extent of corporate downsizing. Moreover, our results show that high levels of institutional investor stock ownership and CEO power attenuate managers’ sensitivity to financial market pressures, while high levels of analyst coverage increase their sensitivity. Managerial Summary: In this study we examine how financial market pressures influence managers’ downsizing decisions. We argue that investment analysts’ earnings estimates represent important performance targets to which managers aspire. If firms fail to meet analysts’ expectations, the stock price will suffer. This study shows that managers utilize corporate downsizing to address the potential shortfall between a firm's future performance and the analyst consensus earnings estimate. In addition, we find that managers’ concerns over meeting analysts’ earnings estimates are influenced by various contextual factors such as institutional investor stock ownership, CEO power, and high levels of analyst coverage.