我国地区间的财力差异——基于地方税体系与转移支付体系的比较分析

和谐社会的建设客观上要求各地居民享有相对均等的公共服务水平,各地公共服务水平的差异主要是由以财政支出量为指标的财力差异决定的。我们测算了地方税收入各项目和转移支付体系各项目对地区间财政支出差异的相对贡献,以期为缩小地区财力差异和优化财政转移支付体系结构提供科学依据。     

The Long-run Effects of the Italian Pension Reforms

The paper analysesthe reforms of the Italian mandatory pension scheme for employeeslegislated in the 1990s. To assess the effects of the reforms,a microsimulation model calibrated on cross-section data is developed.The model is aimed at estimating the average income of a memberof a cohort, as well as the average per capita income of allindividuals alive in a given year. The long-run effects of thereform are analysed, comparing the characteristics of alternativefinancing schemes. A substantial improvement of the equity aswell as the long-run sustainability of the Italian public pensionschemes emerges. However, the dreary demographic scenario callsfor further tightening of eligibility rules sometime in the nextdecades if long-run sustainability of public debt is to be achieved.On the basis of sensitivity analysis, some changes aimed at hedgingthe system against unexpected shocks are suggested.     

Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone: an SVAR analysis

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import taxes) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2000Q1-2016Q4), in order to understand how the values can vary according to the public debt level, the pace of economic growth, and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks, the results showed that government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.44, whereas tax multipliers presented negative signs: the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at ?0.11 and ?0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the spending multiplier showed a higher value for countries with lower levels of public debt, during recessions, and in countries with negative output gaps. On the other hand, tax shocks seemed to be recessive in highly indebted countries and those facing positive output gaps.     

支持资源枯竭型城市转型的财政政策探讨

随着主体资源的不断减少,资源枯竭型城市必然面临转型的路径选择。在转型的过程中资源枯竭型城市受到资源匮乏、产业结构单一、生态环境恶化、社会矛盾突出等问题的困扰,需要用产业政策、财税政策、环境保护政策、社会保障政策等构建公共政策支持系统,破解城市在转型中的困境,财政政策是其中重要的因素之一。     

积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异——基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析

本文利用面板数据模型分别考察了积极财政政策对我国东、中、西部私人投资增长和差异的影响.分析表明,积极财政政策对东、中、西部的私人投资具有一定的正向影响,从而证实了积极财政政策的有效性.本文通过地方财政各项支出对私人投资产生的影响分析,表明东、中、西部要根据自身的经济发展水平来安排财政支出的结构.     

我国主体功能区生态补偿的横向转移支付制度探析

随着城市化的快速发展,我国当前面临的首要问题之一就是生态环境恶化。国家"十一五"规划明确提出了推进主体功能区建设的要求,按照该要求,作为生态补偿主要形式的财政转移支付目标应与主体功能区的功能定位和经济发展目标相一致。基于主体功能区生态补偿的横向转移支付制度的建立,有利于促进主体功能区的生态环境建设,走上环境友好型城市化之路。     

人口年龄结构、财政政策与中国高储蓄率

论文以１９９９-２００９年的省际面板数据为样本,对人口年龄结构、财政影响与高储蓄率的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现：（１）影响我国高储蓄率的主要因素不是人口年龄结构,而是经济体的转型特征。（２）人口年龄结构对我国储蓄率的影响存在着明显的城乡差异,其中少儿抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正;老年抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负。（３）财政收支比重对城乡居民储蓄率的影响也存在着明显的差异,税收规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负;支出规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正。上述发现对于中国未来的改革取向具有重要的启示。     

从财政支出结构解读中性财政政策

许多文献已论证财政政策在实现经济长期增长中的作用,本文试图从政府财政支出结构入手,来研究我国的财政支出项目与GDP的关系,分析财政支出的各个项目对经济的影响,指出当前中性财政政策的着力点应优化我国财政支出结构。     

Fiscal Equalization and Tax Enforcement

In many countries organized as federations, fiscal equalization schemes have been implemented to mitigate vertical or horizontal imbalances. Such schemes usually imply that the member states of the federation can only partly internalize (marginal) tax revenue before redistribution. Aside from the internalized marginal revenue, referred to as the marginal tax‐back rate, the remainder is redistributed. We investigate the extent to which state‐level authorities in such federation under‐exploit their tax bases. By means of a stylized model, we show that the member states have an incentive to align the effective tax rates on their residents with the level of the marginal tax‐back rate. We empirically test the model using state‐level and micro‐level taxpayer data, OLS regressions and natural experiments. Our empirical findings support the results from our theoretical model. Particularly, we find that states with a higher marginal tax‐back rate exploit the tax base to a higher extent.     

地方财政压力与投资多样性——基于所得税分享改革的研究

利用企业所得税分享改革构建强度倍差模型,使用1997—2012年全国地级市数据,检验了地方财政压力对于投资多样性的影响及相关传导机制。结果表明,地方财政压力不利于投资多样性的提高;在财政压力下,地方容易形成偏向房地产行业的投资倾向。然而,不同地区地方财政压力对投资结构的影响存在异质性。经济发展水平较低的地区在财政压力下更容易降低投资多样性;而经济发展水平高的地区应对财政压力时,更倾向于通过多元化投资的方式做大税基、减轻财政压力。优化分税制结构、建立地方性税种能缓解地方财政压力,对于改变地方“房地产集中型”投资结构有一定的积极作用。