对建立和完善我国失地农民社会保障制度的探讨

本文分析了我国失地农民社会保障的现状,认为我国失地农民社会保障还存在覆盖面窄、保障水平低、资金来源不足、远期社会保障机制不到位等问题。在此基础上,从明确政府的主导地位和发挥财政政策作用两方面提出了支持建立失地农民社会保障体系的实现途径。     

Toward performance-based compensation: a study of the gaps between organizational practices and employee preferences with regard to compensation criteria in the state-owned sector in China

This study seeks to explore the gaps between employees' preferences of compensation criteria and compensation criteria adopted in the state-owned sector in China. A survey among 772 employees from a large state-owned enterprise shows that employee preferences were at variance with organizational practices in that employees emphasized performance-oriented (i.e. task- relevant and collaboration-relevant) criteria more, and personal background criteria less, than did organizational practices. These gaps were moderated by employees' education level and tenure. Employees with higher education and shorter tenure showed larger gaps between preferred criteria and those used in the organization. Interviews of employees further substantiated the quantitative findings and provided some reasons for the existence of the gaps. Theoretical and practical of the results are discussed.     

KEYNES,KEYNESIANISM AND KRUGMAN

Short courses in economics carry an implicit warning: superficial analysis leads to simplistic conclusions. Where textbooks might be forgiven, a Nobel‐Prize‐winning economist who builds upon that superficiality deserves a reprimand.     

THE PORTUGUESE MALAISE: STRUCTURAL CAUSES OF THE CRISIS AND LESSONS FOR THE EUROZONE

The analysis of the structural causes of the Portuguese crisis points to a mix of internal and external factors that reinforced each other. Among the external factors were the perverse incentives posed by the current institutional setting in the EU and the single currency. These have wider implications for the eurozone in that the long‐term sustainability of the eurozone will require more effective operation of internal adjustment mechanisms. Additionally, the implementation of monetary competition in the eurozone is suggested as an alternative to the current path towards greater centralisation.     

产业结构调整中的政策效应:财政诱导与金融跟进

采用不变系数模型对2003～2009年中国东、中、西部面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示:现阶段财政政策结构调控的综合效应高于金融政策,各政策工具效应排名依次为税收政策、信贷政策、支出政策与直接融资政策;在促进产业结构调整中存在金融职能的财政化,且东部地区表现得更为明显。鉴于此,构建两者调结构的良性互动机制,需要遵循财政杠杆作用为先、差别化金融调控为主的搭配原则,最终形成以财政诱导来撬动金融资源定向流动、以社会融资总量为参考拓宽多样化融资渠道的调控模式。     

The Economics of a Reduction in VAT*

We explore the effects of a temporary cut in VAT, identifying three possible effects: an income effect as people benefit from a lower cost of living during the period of the reduction, a substitution effect as people bring their consumption forward and an arbitrage effect as people buy non‐perishable goods before the end of the period of low VAT for consumption after the VAT rate has been raised. International evidence suggests a clear overall impact on consumption, although the nature of the pattern depends on the way in which the data are analysed. However, the key policy issue is the impact of the VAT change on output and, to examine that, a simulation model of the whole economy is needed. Evidence from the National Institute's Global Economic Model suggests that the impact of the recent VAT reduction is likely to build up during the course of 2009. The reduction in VAT from 17½ per cent to 15 per cent is likely to result in consumption being augmented by less than 1 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2009. However, GDP is likely to be raised by less than half a per cent relative to what would have happened without the VAT increase. After the temporary reduction is over, both consumption and GDP are depressed as a result of the policy.     

The Cost of a Structural Change: A Large Automobile Plant in the State of Bahia

SUMMARY

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the costs and benefits associated with establishing a large automobile plant in the Brazilian state of Bahia, in one of the poorest macro-regions of the country. It is argued that behind Ford's decision to establish a plant far from the economic center of the country are not only the large incentives package offered at the Federal and State levels, but also the 1999 Southern Common Market (Mercosur) crisis and the company's own global strategies. The incentives package given to Ford at the state level is estimated at about R$ 2,642 billion, or 75% of the total investment. Although high in absolute terms, when the total incentives are divided by the investment, they appear to be similar to the incentives given by other Brazilian states to automobile assemblers during the 1990s. It is shown that the largest part of the incentives resulted from tax breaks, which represented more than three quarters of their total value. Despite the large absolute number of jobs created by the assembler and first tier suppliers, it is argued that the main benefit associated with the project is a likely structural change in the state's economy as a result of the backward and forward linkages to be created. The strength of these linkages, however, depends upon the success of the project itself, but the state government actually has little control over this issue.

RESUMEN. El objeto de este estudio es evaluar los costos y beneficios asociados al establecimiento de una gran fábrica automotriz en el estado brasileño de Bahía, en una de las regiones macroeconómicas más pobres del país. Se suele decir que, por detrás de la decisión de la empresa Ford de establecer su planta lejos del centro económico del país, no se esconde apenas el atractivo paquete de incentivos fiscales ofrecidos en los distintos niveles federal y estatal, sino también la crisis de 1999 sufrida por el MERCOSUR–Mercado Común del Cono Sur, y las propias estrategias globales de la empresa. El paquete de incentivos otorgado a Ford en esos niveles gubernamentales ronda los 2.642 mil millones, o 75% de la inversión total. Los incentivos otorgados, a pesar de ser altos en términos absolutos, no difieren mucho de los otorgados por otros estados brasileños a los ensambladores automotrices durante los años 1990, al dividir el total de los incentivos por la inversión. El estudio muestra que la porción más grande de los incentivos provenía de ventajas fiscales, que representaban más de la tercera parte de su valor total. Sin embargo, a pesar del gran número absoluto de empleos creados por la montadora y por los proveedores de primera línea, queda en discusión si el mayor beneficio asociado con el proyecto es un probable cambio estructural en la economía del estado, como resultado de los vínculos progresivos y regresivos que tendrán que crearse. Por otra parte, la fuerza de dichos vínculos depende del éxito que logre el propio proyecto, auque el gobierno del estado tenga en realidad poco control sobre esta cuestión.

RESUMO. Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar os custos e benefícios associados à criação de uma montadora de automóveis grande no estado brasileiro da Bahia, em uma das macrorregiões mais pobres do país. Argumenta-se que por trás de decisão da Ford de criar uma montadora longe do centro econômico do país estão não apenas o grande pacote de incentivos oferecidos nos níveis federal e estadual, mas também a crise de 1999 do Mercado Comum do Sul (Mercosul) e as próprias estratégias globais da empresa. O pacote de incentivos oferecido à Ford no nível estadual está estimado em cerca de R$ 2.642 bilhões, ou 75% do investimento total. Embora alto em termos absolutos, quando os incentivos totais são divididos pelo investimento, parecem semelhantes aos incentivos oferecidos por outros estados brasileiros às montadoras de automóveis durante a década de 1990. Mostra-se que a maior parte dos incentivos resultou de brechas fiscais, que representaram mais de três quartos de seu valor total. Apesar do grande número absoluto de empregos criados pela montadora e pelos fornecedores de primeiro nível, argumenta-se que o benefício principal associado ao projeto é uma provável mudança estrutural na economia do estado como resultado dos vínculos progressivos e regressivos a serem criados. A força desses vínculos, porém, depende do sucesso do próprio rojeto, mas o governo do estado na verdade tem pouco controle sobre esta questão.     

Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Private Consumption： Evidence from China

In the present paper, we use the Markov‐switching model to test the nonlinear effects of government expenditure and taxes on private consumption in China. The results show that fiscal policy in China has a significantly nonlinear effect. In years 1978–1980 and 1984–1997, the effect of government consumption on private consumption is non‐Keynesian. During the same periods, the effect of taxes is also non‐Keynesian, but the effect is not significant. The effect of government investment is linear but asymmetric. After retesting the reasons for the existence of nonlinear effects, we find that in China initial fiscal conditions and the magnitude of fiscal consolidations are not related to the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy. The government should pay close attention to the characteristics of commodity and labor markets to identify the conditions and regimes associated with nonlinear effects.     

股权激励下经营者综合业绩评价指标研究

介绍了股权激励下企业经营者业绩考核指标的现状和问题,在此基础上从绩效产出、胜任素质和行为表现三方面出发,构建了基于股权激励的经营者综合业绩考核指标体系以及评价标准,运用模糊综合评价方法量化了定性指标。     

No direct influence of EU on domestic consolidation and reform: two fiscal ‘hardliners’, Netherlands and Estonia

ABSTRACT

In the Netherlands and Estonia, the European Union (EU) did not exert direct influence on domestic fiscal consolidation. They managed to resolve their fiscal crises and balance their budgets without external financial assistance, thanks to strict fiscal discipline. Yet, domestic consolidations in both countries were to some extent influenced by the EU. The Netherlands was subject to excessive deficit procedure. Estonia was indirectly influenced because of its top priority to join the Eurozone. This paper begins with a conceptual look at EU influencing. Then, fiscal discipline and consolidation in the Netherlands and Estonia are explored, especially their similarities and differences.