劳动力供给变化影响制造业升级的机理及政策研究

人口结构转变背景下人口老龄化加速,劳动力供给数量趋减,劳动者受教育程度提高,新生代劳动力择业行为转变,低端劳动力成本攀升,这将对我国制造业发展产生深远影响。基于1952-2014年中国人口、劳动力和制造业发展相关数据,本文对劳动力供给变化影响制造业升级的机理深入展开探讨,认为劳动力供给数量下降会倒逼制造业升级,知识型劳动力占比提速会顺推制造业升级,新生代劳动者择业行为转变会促进制造业升级。因此,我国应顺沿劳动力供给变化,既要通过技术技能双提升、人才培养模式创新和科技创新驱动制造业升级,又要通过政策促推制造业向和劳动力供给动态变化相协调的价值链高端和结构高端升级。     

深化我国财政体制改革的思考

对改革开放以来我国财政体制的演变历程进行了简要回顾，对分税制改革所取得的成效进行了简单小结。在此基础上，分析了目前分税制存在的问题，并提出了继续推进改革的方向。     

城市土地利用政策的伦理分析

土地利用是一个伦理问题,城市土地利用政策必须遵循效率、公平、生态、利义统一的伦理原则。针对目前城市土地利用政策中伦理缺失现象,必须在城市土地利用规划过程中扩大和完善公民参与,完善节约集约用地型土地利用政策体系,更加注重公平理念,加强政策主体的职业伦理建设。     

Economic Causes and Cures of Social Instability in China

China＇s leaders have often expressed concerns about social instability, viewed as a threat both to the political order and to continued rapid growth. Slower growth might, in turn, further undermine social stability. Using survey data, the present paper examines the economic determinants of social instability. Four main determinants are identified.＇past and expected growth of income, income inequality, economic insecurity and misgovernance. The paper then considers possible policies to reduce social instability, examining each of the determinants in turn.     

论低碳经济发展视阈下的公共政策创新

在全球变暖及其所带来的一系列生态环境问题备受国际关注的时代背景下,低碳经济发展越来越受到各国政府的普遍重视。本文分别从能源安全政策、产业、财税政策、公共参与政策、人才政策以及消费政策五方面展开分析,在此基础上提出适合我国国情的低碳政策创新建议。     

Does Fiscal Decentralization Promote Fiscal Discipline?

We investigate the efficiency and equity implications of a redistributive rule that takes into account both local tax collection efforts and deviation of local incomes from respective targets under alternative fiscal mechanisms. We show that, if the general budget constraint is binding, the proposed transfer rule leads to higher fiscal discipline under fiscal decentralization (FD) than under centralized redistribution. Although the centralized decision yields better income distribution than FD, FD also improves income distribution unambiguously when equalization across regions is targeted explicitly. When localities act strategically, the private sector’s utility weight enhances the disciplinary effect of decentralization.     

How does credit supply respond to monetary policy and bank minimum capital requirements?

We use data on UK banks׳ minimum capital requirements to study the interaction of monetary policy and capital requirement regulation. UK banks were subject to both time-varying capital requirements and changes in interest rate policy. Tightening of either capital requirements or monetary policy reduces the supply of lending. Lending by large banks reacts substantially to capital requirement changes, but not to monetary policy changes. Lending by small banks reacts to both. There is little evidence of interaction between these two policy instruments. The differences in the responses of small and large banks identify important distributional consequences within the financial system of these two policy instruments. Finally, our findings do not corroborate theoretical models that raise concerns about complex interactions between monetary policy and macro-prudential variation in capital requirements.     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

“Been-heres vs. come-heres” and other identities and ideologies along the rural–urban interface: A comparative case study in Calaveras County,California

The rural–urban interface is the place of transition between that which we call “urban” and that which we call “rural.” The interface is situated between two places perceived to be different, but which are indelibly linked. Although the functional differences between “rural” and “urban” people (or those seen as “been-heres” versus “come-heres”) seem to be diminishing, differing perspectives and preferences persist along the rural–urban edge. Such differences influence the way that land users, decision makers, and the community manage the environment and react to landscape change. Using a comparative case study in Calaveras County, California, I examine the differences and similarities between “been-heres” and “come-heres” along several lines: basic demographic characteristics, political party affiliations and ideologies, and conceptions of private property rights, concluding that the dichotomy is false but instructive. The been-here/come-here divide, rather than being a definitive means for characterizing stakeholders or predicting their behavior or perspectives, serves as a heuristic for understanding the starting places of certain actors. Furthermore, this kind of analysis reveals not only where and how people and perspectives contrast but also the ways that they converge. Improving our understandings differing people and perspectives is especially important as decision-makers struggle to plan for and manage livable places and sustainable environments among groups with varying preferences which may sometimes conflict.     

Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.