高管机会主义品行与公司信息披露决策

文章构建相应策略识别了高管机会主义品行,并探究其对公司信息披露决策的影响。研究结果表明,高管的机会主义品行会显著增加公司信息披露违规、真实盈余管理行为;提升公司选择非国际"四大"会计师事务所的概率,并支付更高的审计费用。随着高管机会主义水平上升,公司更有可能作出上述决策。进一步地,国有产权能在一定程度上抑制高管机会主义品行对信息披露质量的负面影响,却显著增加了公司应计盈余管理;当高管机会主义水平较高时,国有产权也无法发挥有效治理作用。从经济后果看,高管的机会主义品行能被资本市场识别,并显著减损公司未来价值。     

新发展格局视野中的消费券发放问题与重构研究

2020年面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击,各地纷纷发放消费券刺激消费。本轮发放消费券的省市和规模远超以往。考察当前各地消费券的实践,其存在三方面的问题:短期刺激消费与构建发展新格局缺乏衔接、地方各自为政与顶层设计阙如、财政补贴与财政约束的张力。针对这些问题,本文从新发展格局视野提出将当前消费券重构为财政和金融融合的消费金融券,使之成为构建新发展格局中扩大内需的长期政策和重要的宏观调控工具。消费金融券的制度设计要与社会结构新特征和新趋势相契合。针对低收入群体的消费金融券,应以财政补贴为主、以重大生活项目消费的利息补贴与信用担保为辅。针对中等收入群体的消费金融券,应以利息补贴为主,通过消费金融的方式扩大消费。加大消费金融券的全国顶层设计,明确中央和地方财政支持产业的范围和力度。     

中外应对全球金融危机的政策比较

全球金融危机对世界各国经济造成了严重的负面影响,主要国家纷纷出台针对性的政策措施以应对。文章对比分析了美、日、英等发达国家和中国的政策措施,归纳出中国政策措施的特点,并提出了中国进一步应对全球金融危机的政策建议。     

Growth Effects of Fiscal Decentralization: Empirical Evidence from China's Provinces

In this paper, we revisit the fiscal decentralization-economic growth nexus in the case of China's provinces using autoregressive distributed lag bounds tests and pooled mean group estimators with time series data from the period 1979-2009. Using principal component analysis, we build a novel composite fiscal decentralization indicator consisting of five different fiscal decentralization measures and use it in the models in addition to conventional fiscal decentralization variables. The results suggest that there is a strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth in most provinces in China in both the short run and the long run.     

How to inhibit a partner's strong and weak forms of opportunism: Impacts of network embeddedness and bilateral TSIs

This study investigates the moderating effects of a firm's network embeddedness and a partner's transactional specific investments (TSIs) on relationships between the firm's TSIs and its partner's strong- and weak-form opportunism, and compares the efficiency among these moderator variables. The regression results suggest that (1) a firm's TSIs are positively related to partner's opportunism when network embeddedness and the partner's TSIs are relatively low; but (2) a firm's TSIs are negatively related to partner's opportunism when network embeddedness and the partner's TSIs are relatively high. Furthermore (3) network embeddedness is more effective in inhibiting partner's weak-form opportunism than in inhibiting strong-form opportunism resulting from the firm's TSIs. Finally (4) with regard to the relationship between TSIs and weak-form opportunism, the negative moderating effect of network embeddedness is greater than the negative moderating effect of partner's TSIs. This study explains reasons why conflicting views exist about the relationship between TSIs and partner's opportunism, reveals the differences in the moderating effects of network embeddedness and partner's TSIs, and makes new contributions to both transaction cost theory and embeddedness literature. It also provides, for firms involved in TSIs in a buyer–supplier relationship, insightful managerial suggestions about ways to reduce their partner's varying forms of opportunism.     

税收竞争与市场分割

财政分权背景下,财权、事权和财力的不匹配使得地方政府采取策略性行为是其作为理性决策人的应然选择,地方政府往往会基于经济增长和税收双重目标而利用税收工具开展税收竞争,进而造成市场分割等问题。考虑到空间依赖性的存在,本文采用动态空间杜宾模型来考察税收竞争与市场分割之间的关系。研究发现,"为税收而竞争"在地方政府间存在,而竞争导致的税负下降将加剧市场分割;从分税种来看,所得税对市场分割的直接效应显著负相关,但三大税种的空间溢出效应并不明显;从时空异质性上看,地方政府的策略性行为在时序和区域上有所差异;市场分割敏感程度在时序上动态调整,区域内协同效应有待增强。为避免地方政府税收竞争恶化、异化和宏观福利损失,需要重视由此导致的市场分割的治理,建立现代化财政体制,深化税收制度改革,打造服务型地方政府等,这些也都是构筑国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的基础性支撑。     

Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper explores economic, political and institutional determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 2000 to 2013 and compares discretionary fiscal reactions before and during the global economic crisis. We find that fiscal policy was procyclical to the output gap both before and during the crisis, while no fiscal reaction to the absorption gap was captured. Our results also indicate a negative relationship between the level of public debt and deficits over the entire period and the pre-crisis period, suggesting that rising public debt represented a brake on future deficits. We also find that election cycles affect the fiscal deficit, but only during the pre-crisis period, while no evidence of a relationship between fiscal policy and government fragmentation was captured. We find some evidence that in the pre-crisis period the CEE countries with a fixed exchange rate regime ran lower deficits than those with a floating regime, whereas during the crisis no impact of the exchange rate regime on the fiscal deficit was found. There is also some evidence that an arrangement with the IMF was associated with lower deficits for the entire sample period. However, no impact of EU accession on the fiscal stance was identified.     

财政压力、技术创新与绿色全要素生产率

经济社会转型期典型的中国式"压力型"财政，对地方创新活动和绿色可持续发展具有重要影响。运用2004~2017年中国256个地级市面板数据，实证考察了财政压力对绿色全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。基准检验结果显示，财政压力显著抑制了绿色全要素生产率的提升，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用；中介效应检验发现，财政压力通过抑制技术创新进而阻碍绿色全要素生产率的提升，即验证了财政压力→技术创新→绿色全要素生产率的传导机制；进一步门槛效应检验表明，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的影响存在基于财政压力的双门槛效应，在财政压力的不同门槛值区间，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的促进效应呈现出明显的阶梯性降低趋势。未来需综合完善中国式"压力型"财政激励制度，合理控制财政压力的区间范围，助力技术创新以提升城市绿色全要素生产率。     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

On Keynes on inflation and unemployment

Keynes tends to be represented as someone who thought that alleviating unemployment was more important than any other consideration. Interestingly it seems that this was not always the case; he did not recommend employment creation under all conditions of excess labour supply. The great inflation of World War I and its aftermath left an indelible impression on him, and this mitigated his position on the importance of high levels of employment. In 1920 he recommended that inflation in the UK be controlled even if some unemployment would result, and there is at least some hint in his work that the relative importance to him of inflation and unemployment did not vary much over the remainder of his life.