A rejoinder

Abstract

This paper reflects on the influence of Vilfredo Pareto's letters on Ricardian equivalence and fiscal theory to Benvenuto Griziotti and Guido Sensini. The letters are important for emphasizing the need for fiscal studies to consider equilibrium, particularly social equilibrium, at a time when Italian fiscal sociology was in its formative stage. Griziotti came to accept fiscal sociology, albeit in an eclectic form that focused directly on political and legislative matters rather than social equilibrium. In contrast, Sensini progressively developed a framework for fiscal theory that focused primarily on the fundamental relationship between fiscal phenomena and social equilibrium.     

Consistency in performance rankings: the Peru water sector

Regulators can utilize a number of alternative methodologies for comparing firm efficiency, but these approaches need to be robust to be accepted by stakeholders. This study evaluates the consistency of water-utility performance rankings for Peruvian water utilities. The results indicate that data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) yield similar rankings in this case. In addition, the techniques have comparable success for identifying the best and worst performing utilities. However, these rankings based on sophisticated statistical techniques are not highly correlated with those developed by the Peruvian water regulator (SUNASS). This result does not invalidate the performance rankings obtained by the regulator, since those rankings are based on more dimensions of utility performance. However, they illustrate the importance of developing sound techniques for identifying weak utilities. Improvements in sector performance require that benchmarking be given greater attention than in the past.     

Ranking and clustering of the faculties of commerce research performance in Australia

There is a growing policy focus in Australian higher education on quantitative research performance assessment. However, most of the analysis has addressed aggregate performance at the institutional level, an approach inconsistent with recent policy emphasis on diversity among universities and one that ignores performance variations across disciplines. Using averaged and all available data for 2000–2004, cluster analysis is used to classify Australian Commerce Faculties into groups that exhibit similar research performance, measured by publication, PhD completion and secured competitive research grant funding. We also use factor analysis to generate full-multidimensional rankings within the resulting two or three clusters. It is found that in terms of total research output, with the exception of Adelaide all the Group of 8 (Go8) members plus University of Technology, Sydney and Griffith always belong to ‘Clusters A’. However, when research performance is expressed in per academic staff terms, an additional 11 universities join this same cluster. Our results additionally show that eight Australian faculties of Commerce not only possess low total research output but their per capita performance is also poor.     

FISCAL POLICY AND ASSET PRICES

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices using a panel vector auto‐regressive (PVAR) approach and quarterly data for ten industrialized countries. We find that positive fiscal shocks lead to a temporary fall in stock prices and a gradual and persistent decrease in housing prices. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding‐out effects and the deterioration of credit conditions; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) a more persistent response of asset prices for countries with a lower degree of openness; (iv) a larger impact of fiscal policy on asset prices for small countries; (v) a close link between the responsiveness of asset prices to fiscal policy and the government’s size; (vi) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization; and (vii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.     

Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro‐ or counter‐cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has ‘Keynesian’ effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro‐cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization.     

基于SDA模型的生态工业园资源环境压力与结构分解研究——以大连经济技术开发区生态工业园区为例

本文建立结构分解分析（SDA）模型,以大连经济技术开发区生态工业园区为例,定量分析了2001-2010年资源与环境压力的驱动因子和效应。结果表明,土地因子对生态工业园区资源环境压力的效应为正,相对较小且稳定,而效应随园区经济发展逐渐减弱则说明土地开发不再是造成资源环境压力的主要因素;经济因子的效应为正且逐年增大,是园区资源环境压力的主要动因,表明典型园区在经济高速增长阶段对资源和环境造成了破坏;技术因子的效应为负,相对较大且稳定,但随着园区经济因子正效应的逐渐增大,技术因子负效应开始抵消不了经济因子的正效应,表明园区在后期的发展会遇到节能减排技术创新的瓶颈,技术因子减小园区的资源环境压力的效应呈边际递减。     

加快农村义务教育发展的财政政策思考

随着改革开放的进一步深化,中国的义务教育财政政策进行了重大调整,从而使农村义务教育取得了较好的成就,并积累了一定的经验,但仍存在学校间差距仍然较大、代课人员难以清退、义务教育债务化解难度较大等问题。应实行统筹城乡发展的义务教育财政体制,采取照顾代课人员的考录及补偿政策,中央财政建立激励机制对地方化解债务给予适当支持,促进义务教育的均衡发展。     

Structural reforms and fiscal adjustments: policy options for the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of structural reform and fiscal consolidation policies in the Euro Area using a stylized new-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) the modelling and effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and (ii) evaluation of alternative reform and consolidation scenarios, including their joint implementation.     

Stories,Fables, Parables,and Myths: Greece and the Euro Crisis,Toward a New Narrative

The debt crisis in the Eurozone has generated an intense academic debate about the appropriate policy response to the crisis. At the same time, the general public hears a variety of stories about the crisis, and especially stories about the debt crisis in Greece. This paper deals with the economic significance of stories, in particular with the importance of the Greek "morality tale." Stories are powerful in influencing public psychology, and they can affect the economy through fluctuations in confidence and "animal spirits." The paper considers the development of the Greek story through a web of related stories, fables, parables, and myths. It argues that the story dramatically distorts the reality of the debt crisis in the Eurozone and poses a threat to the global economy through its adverse effects on confidence and "animal spirits." It concludes that Europe needs not only a new policy direction, but also a new narrative about the debt crisis.