外商直接投资与煤炭产业链的构建——基于山西主导产业升级的视角

阐述了外商直接投资对推动我国经济发展的重要性,论述了其与国内导向型产业升级的联系,以及与山西省煤炭产业链构建的重要关系,认为外商直接投资是促进山西产业结构升级的重要途径。     

Financial stress,sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm.     

The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?

This paper studies the determinants of the euro exchange rate volatility during the European sovereign debt crisis, allowing a role for macroeconomic fundamentals, policy actions and the public debate by policy makers. It finds that the euro exchange rate mainly danced to its own tune, with a particularly low explanatory power for macroeconomic fundamentals. The findings of the paper also suggest that financial markets might have been less reactive to the public debate by policy makers than previously feared. Still, there are instances where exchange rate volatility increased in response to news, such as on days when several politicians from AAA-rated countries went public with negative statements, suggesting that communication by policy makers at times of crisis should be cautious about triggering undesirable financial market reactions.     

Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?

We investigate the relationship between a country's domestic financial development and the (composition of its) net foreign asset position using a pooled mean group estimator and data for 50 countries for the 1970–2007 period. The results show that financial development reduces a country's long-run net foreign asset position. In addition, financial development leads to higher net equity and lower net debt positions. These findings confirm the theoretical predictions of Mendoza et al. (2009). The results are robust to using different indicators of financial development and inclusion of the level of development of a country in the cointegrating relationship.     

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the euro zone periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocated from the private sector to the public sector, reducing investment and deepening the recessions even further. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debt can be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereign debt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This provides incentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowing is limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productive investment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead to self-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countries in the euro zone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.     

Guarantees,transparency and the interdependency between sovereign and bank default risk

Bank debt guarantees have traditionally been viewed as costless measures to prevent bank runs. However, as recent experiences in some European countries have demonstrated, guarantees may link the coordination problems of bank and sovereign creditors and induce a functional interdependence between the likelihoods of a government default and bank illiquidity. Employing a global-game approach, we model this link, showing the existence and uniqueness of the joint equilibrium and derive its comparative statics properties. In equilibrium, the guarantee reduces the probability of a bank run, while it increases the probability of a sovereign default. The latter erodes the guarantee’s credibility and thus its effectiveness ex ante. By setting the guarantee optimally, the government balances these two effects in order to minimize expected costs of crises. Our results show that the optimal guarantee has clear-cut welfare gains which are enhanced through policies that promote greater balance sheet transparency.     

Do banks really monitor? Evidence from CEO succession decisions

We demonstrate that banks play an important monitoring role in CEO succession that is not observed for other types of lenders, particularly public bondholders. There is a stronger relation between cash flow performance and forced CEO turnover for firms issuing bank debt during the year of CEO turnover than for firms not issuing bank debt, and bank debt issuance increases the likelihood of external CEO succession. The stock price reaction to CEO succession is higher when bank monitoring is prevalent. Our results are consistent with theories of relationship banking that propose a valuable monitoring role for well informed, incentivized bank lenders.     

上海金山区招商引资研究

本课题通过考察上海金山区经济发展轨迹,反思其发展经验,结合金山区位优势、产业优势、现实环境,以科学发展观．为指导,以建设和谐社会为目标,重塑区域发展战略,使招商引资工作迈八健康发展的轨道．     

国内国际双循环背景下中国制造业转型升级——基于对外直接投资角度

国内国际双循环新发展格局逐渐形成,中国制造业逐步开始转型升级。利用2015—2021年的相关数据,建立OFDI-制造业评估体系,探索对外直接投资对其的影响。总体而言,OFDI促进了中国制造业高质量发展,存在逆向技术溢出的中介效应,对制造业创新发展方面的积极作用最为显著。在要素密集度和OECD两种不同分类标准中,技术密集型制造业和中低级技术制造业受到的积极影响最大。最后,从政府和企业层面提出建议,为“智造2025”贡献力量。     

The role of banks in the governance of nonfinancial firms: Evidence from Europe

The aim of our research is to investigate the important role of banks in the governance of companies listed in the Euronext 100 index. Primarily, this research seeks to examine the impact of a bank’s presence within a firm, as a creditor or shareholder, on firm performance, as well as the motivations of banks to acquire holdings, and whether the presence of a bank as a shareholder of a firm facilitates its access to bank loans. Empirical analyses are conducted with a sample of 86 nonfinancial institutions listed in the Euronext 100 index over the period 2008–2013 using the three-stage least squares method. The study shows, first, that the presence of a bank within a firm, as a creditor or shareholder, is positively related to firm performance. Moreover, the firm’s performance is an important determinant of the presence of bank shareholding. Finally, the presence of a bank as a shareholder of a firm does not facilitate its access to bank loans.