High-Frequency Trading,Liquidity Withdrawal,and the Breakdown of Conventions in Foreign Exchange Markets

Conventions, or “that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely, except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change” (Keynes 1936), play a central role in over-the-counter markets. For instance, by allowing expectations about the future to become more harmonized and orderly, they act as stabilizers for the provision of liquidity. Conventions might, of course, change at any time. Nonetheless, by being attached to the daily trading routine and/or integrated within the institutional structure, the confidence in their relevance and validity can be long-lasting. In the foreign exchange market, in particular, where prices are quoted to end-users on demand, market-making banks rely on a convention to quote prices to each other to maintain liquidity. However, the rise of algorithmic and high-frequency trading poses a practical as well as a theoretical challenge to such conventions. By reacting ultra-fast to new information, including to new limit orders submitted by others, markets largely populated with algorithmic traders have become susceptible to a withdrawal of liquidity at an unprecedented speed and scale. Using a high-frequency dataset provided by Electronic Broking Services (EBS), we investigate the process of liquidity withdrawal from the foreign exchange spot market. By doing so, we consider the crowding out of conventions associated with liquidity provision, traditionally upheld through mutual understanding among financial institutions – in other words, reciprocity and trust among humans.     

Is the Threat of Foreign Aid Withdrawal an Effective Deterrent to Political Oppression? Evidence from 53 African Countries

This article complements existing literature on the aid-institutions nexus by focusing on political rights, aid volatilities, and the post-Berlin Wall period. Our findings show that, while foreign aid does not have a significant effect on political rights, foreign aid volatilities do mitigate democracy in recipient countries. Such volatilities could be used by populist parties to promote a neocolonial agenda, instill nationalistic sentiments, and consolidate their grip on power. This is especially true when donors are asking for standards that the majority of the population in control does not want and political leaders are unwilling to implement them. Our empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period from 1996 to 2010. As a main policy implication, creating uncertainties in foreign aid for political rights enhancement in African countries may achieve the opposite results. We also discuss other implications, including the need for an “After-Washington” Consensus.     

双重古诺竞争下的FDI关联溢出效应

扩展了以往理论研究的基本假设,在古诺竞争框架下分析FDI进入东道国上下游双边市场时的关联溢出效应。结果显示:当FDI仅进入东道国的下游市场时,FDI产生的竞争效应会增加下游市场的总产出,从而增大对上游市场中东道国本土供应商的后向关联程度,且其增大程度与技术差距正相关;在FDI同时进入东道国上下游双边市场的情况下,上游市场的FDI会对东道国本土供应商产生挤出效应,且两者的技术差距越大,挤出效应越明显,同时会对下游市场中的东道国本土生产者产生明显的前向关联,上游市场总产出的增加使得中间产品的均衡价格下降,直接减少了下游本土生产者的边际生产成本,从而增加了其产出和利润,部分抵消了下游市场的FDI的挤出效应。     

国际化路径、技术创新与区域中小企业成长——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

利用2011-2015年中国省域层面的中小企业相关数据,构建了静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据模型,研究了中国区域中小企业的两条国际化路径(对外贸易和对外直接投资)对中小企业成长的影响,并探析了中小企业技术创新在对外贸易和对外直接投资影响中小企业成长过程中的中介作用。实证结果显示:中小企业对外贸易对中小企业成长具有显著的正向影响;中小企业对外直接投资对中小企业成长具有显著的负向影响;中小企业技术创新在中小企业国际化路径影响企业成长的过程中起中介作用。     

Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross‐Border Flows in and out of China

This paper examines the impact of cultural distance in general and the Confucius Institute Network in particular on cross‐border flows of tourists, goods and investment in and out of China. We estimate a panel gravity model of inbound and outbound flows between 2004 and 2012. We find that the presence of Confucius Institute(s) in the source country increases inbound tourism and equity flows and outbound export and FDI flows for China, while other measures of cultural distance have less of an impact.     

Predicting a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market

I examine whether the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN) can predict a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market. The results show that VPIN using bulk volume classification predicted a recent event. However, VPIN using order flows, which are the amount of the ask-side transaction minus those of bid-side, does not.     

基于"语言游戏说"的汉语歇后语新解

运用维特根斯坦"语言游戏说"的三个重要性质即家族相似性、与"生活形式"的不可分离性及其遵守规则,解析汉语歇后语的认知过程,可为我们阐释汉语歇后语提供崭新的视角。     

近五年国内外语自主学习实证研究成果评述

近5年来,国内外语自主学习领域的实证研究呈现出研究内容涉及面广、借助的研究手段日益丰富等特点,取得了显著成绩,但也有不足之处,应完善研究工具的设计、延长实验研究时间的跨度以及拓宽研究的学习者范围等。     

技术与技术性贸易壁垒：中国农产品对外贸易的出路在哪里？

本文认为,技术是异质的,农业生产和农产品加工制造技术发展已经非常成熟,使其技术禀赋优势无从发挥,技术以外诸如土地、劳动力等要素的禀赋优势显著。技术性贸易壁垒（TBT）是农产品进口国利用其技术优势削减出口国技术外要素禀赋优势的一种方式,中国农产品对外贸易即处于这种状况。但是,突破TBT并不是一劳永逸的,而是一个反复博弈的过程,并且这种博弈还会持续很长一段时间,成为中国农产品外贸的最大障碍。     

次贷危机对我国沿海地区经贸影响探析——以粤苏浙三省为例

在经济全球化的今天,任何一个经济体都无法独善其身,美国次贷危机对我国的影响不容小视,特别是开放程度较高、与对外经贸交流频繁的粤苏浙沿海三省更具代表性。文章分析了危机传导的机理,即危机从起初的信贷市场扩散到金融市场,再从金融市场影响至实体经济,进而通过国际贸易传导到这些地区的对外贸易行业。通过对外贸易与沿海经济增长关系的实证研究,并着重从外部需求减少及美元贬值两方面分析,提出调整出口结构和出口市场、扩大内需市场、应对美元贬值策略等若干建议。