Volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets: a connectedness analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to May 2018. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.     

Explaining regional disparities in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper analyses the determinants and the evolution of income disparities across regions within Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) over 1991–2011. We add to the literature in different ways. First, we adapt the categories that Rodriguez‐Pose used for studying convergence among old EU members to CEECs regions. This allows us to assess the relevance of geo‐sectoral groups (urban areas, old industrialized areas and peripheral areas) for newcomer regions. Second, we introduce a new category, that of ‘successful Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)‐based restructuring’ in order to capture regions that, often through considerable FDI, manage to reconvert their old industrial base. We then analyze whether this group helps understand catching‐up/falling behind processes in CEECs. We test the relevance of these groups by means of both non‐parametric and spatial regression analyses. We find that they help explain the increase in within‐countries’ regional disparities especially after the turn of the century.     

经济增长驱动下城市经济开放度提升研究

经济开放是区域发展过程中由于资本的趋利性与资源的配置等因素导致资金流、劳动人口等因素流动的动态综合评价,是城市经济持续增长的原动力.利用因子模型从对外经济开放与对内经济开放两个层面对中国36个主要城市的经济开放程度进行综合评价.回归模型表明,其对经济增长具有显著促进作用.城市经济增长驱动下,通过加大对外经济贸易开放程度、加快城镇化进程、加强城市的人力资本空间集聚效应,有助于提升城市的经济开放度.     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国进出口贸易的影响及政策应对

全球性的新冠肺炎疫情对我国进出口贸易将造成一定的负面影响,我国的进出口同比增速将有所下降,外贸企业面临较大压力,国际贸易摩擦也可能有所增加。但是,本次疫情对我国进出口贸易的影响只是暂时的短期波动,我国的国际经济影响力并不会受到全局性影响。在政策应对方面,应保障临时性应急政策的有效供给,加大电子政务和电子商务的政策支持,尽快设计应对贸易摩擦的政策方案,并采取更加积极的财政政策与适度放宽的货币政策,以迅速恢复我国进出口贸易发展的强劲态势。     

中国民航业金融衍生工具现状及其发展

随着20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系的瓦解,“双挂钩”的国际货币体系成为历史,金融衍生工具应运而生。为了降低经济活动的不确定性和风险,金融衍生工具在国际民航行业迅速发展。相比而言,国内民航企业对金融衍生工具认识范围不全面、风险管控不到位、操作程序不规范、内部审批不严格,致使金融衍生品在中国民航业的交易规模极为有限,且无法充分发挥套期保值作用。本文就金融衍生工具在国内民航业的现状、存在的问题进行分析,并提出相应的缓解措施,以促进形成具有中国特色和符合中国国情的航空金融衍生品市场。     

Do foreign institutional investors drive corporate social responsibility? Evidence from listed firms in China

This paper investigates the effect of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) on corporate social responsibility (CSR) within the context of listed firms in China. We find that QFIIs offer an incisive channel for improving socially responsible practices. In addition, we find that firms with QFIIs are more likely to comply with the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) guidelines, and that their sustainability reports tend to be longer. We also find that this positive effect is more pronounced in firms with low initial CSR scores than those with high CSR scores at the time when QFIIs enter the sample. Our empirical evidence further confirms that this positive impact is driven by QFIIs from countries with high social awareness, or QFIIs from geographically distant countries, consistent with their motives, and is linked to the ownership of QFIIs, especially when the QFII is among the top ten of the largest shareholders. Finally, our extended analysis reveals that the increase in CSR performance associated with the presence of QFIIs results in greater firm performance and easier access to finance.     

Determining the reasons for the failure of British aircraft manufacturers to invest in Australia's industry, 1934–1941

The aim of the article is to identify the factors that prevented British aircraft manufacturers from investing in Australia in the second half of the 1930s, a period when rearmament was creating demand for aircraft. The article looks at several unsuccessful proposals by British manufacturers to establish factories in Australia to build aircraft in the late 1930s, with additional attention being given to one proposal in particular. There is evidence that the Australian Government favoured the creation of an Australian-owned industry building aircraft under licence to foreign manufacturers, and it was this factor that largely deterred British investors.     

“Going global” and FDI inflows in China: “One Belt & One Road” initiative as a quasi‐natural experiment

This paper investigates the impact of “One Belt & One Road” as an exogenous policy shock on the utilisation of foreign capital in China in the short term. Based on provincial panel data for the years 2003–15, the empirical study is conducted with difference‐in‐differences design. The first difference is whether a province is an OBOR province, and the second is whether “One Belt & One Road” initiative has been proposed. The empirical results suggest the utilisation of foreign capital in OBOR provinces has decreased significantly compared to non‐OBOR provinces after the initiative has been proposed. The study has further shown that the OBOR construction not only means factor movements and projects but also stands for policy shock. Its impact on utilisation of foreign capital cannot be simply captured by the commonly quantifiable “going global” indicators, namely outward direct investment, overseas contracted projects or overseas labour services. The negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation is strongly reflected in the OBOR provinces with low levels of economic development, heavy fiscal burdens and high proportions of state‐owned economy. In the short term, the negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation may be due to its role in resource competition and signal delivering. The former means that the OBOR initiative may induce resource competition between “going global” and “bringing in,” and the latter suggests that this initiative is likely to be regarded as a “signal” by foreign investors that “going global,” not “bringing in,” has become the priority of the government.     

Job Opportunities in Foreign Firms and Internal Migration in Vietnam

Using the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey and the 2004 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey, this paper investigates the role of employment opportunities created by foreign‐owned firms as a determinant of internal migration and destination choice. Multinomial logit and conditional logit models are estimated to study both origin‐and destination‐specific characteristics of migrants. The paper finds that the migration response to foreign job opportunities is larger for female workers than male workers; there appears to be intermediate selection in terms of educational attainment; and migrating individuals tend to go to destinations with higher foreign employment opportunities, even when controlling for income differentials, land differentials and distances between sending and receiving areas.     

What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques

Despite the importance of Germany as an issuer of foreign direct investment (FDI), the studies analyzing its determinants are far from conclusive. This research contributes to filling this gap providing new evidence for the period 1996–2012. In order to reduce model uncertainty, we adopt a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. We find that determinants associated with horizontal FDI appear to be dominant for explaining FDI in developed countries while for the group of developing countries covariates associated with vertical FDI motives play a larger role. Within Europe, while the majority of FDI is horizontally driven in “core” countries, in the “periphery” vertical motivations seem to prevail. Moreover, our results are compatible with more complex FDI models where vertical determinants and institutional variables are gaining prominence as does the leading role currently played by Germany in global value chains (GVC). Our results may provide hints for policymakers’ strategies to attract German investment.