Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

This paper discusses the thought processes involved in statistical problem solving in the broad sense from problem formulation to conclusions. It draws on the literature and in-depth interviews with statistics students and practising statisticians aimed at uncovering their statistical reasoning processes. From these interviews, a four-dimensional framework has been identified for statistical thinking in empirical enquiry. It includes an investigative cycle, an interrogative cycle, types of thinking and dispositions. We have begun to characterise these processes through models that can be used as a basis for thinking tools or frameworks for the enhancement of problem-solving. Tools of this form would complement the mathematical models used in analysis and address areas of the process of statistical investigation that the mathematical models do not, particularly areas requiring the synthesis of problem-contextual and statistical understanding. The central element of published definitions of statistical thinking is "variation". We further discuss the role of variation in the statistical conception of real-world problems, including the search for causes.     

美国转基因生物安全行政监管特点分析

美国的转基因生物安全行政监管主要由农业部、环保署及食品药品管理局负责,部门之间分工明确,且建立了高效的协调机制和良好的公众参与制度;监管部门均设有下属专业的管理单位,强调检测评价报告以科学为依据,在管制方法上,以研究者为核心,以公司财产为担保,采用"自律"管制.这些特点的产生主要依赖于较完善的法律体系以及相当稳定的社会规范.根据我国转基因生物安全监管的现状,美国的监管体系值得我们借鉴:管理机构问的高度协调机制、专家知识的充分利用与信息共享,以及良好的公众参与制度.     

工业化、城市化影响下的农地质量变化研究

土地资源面临的压力也越来越大,土地质量问题也日益引起世界各国政府、国际组织和学者的普遍关注,土地质量评价也已经成为当前土地科学研究领域的一个新的热点[1]。该文首先构建了工业化、城市化影响下的农地质量评价指标选择的理论框架,以此为依据确定评价指标体系,并应用综合协调度模型,以江阴市为例进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,压力的增加和土壤肥力因子协调性的降低是综合协调度降低、农地质量退化的动因,但主要是由于压力的增加。     

A policy analysis to promote conservation and use of small millet underutilized species in India

Despite the important role of Neglected and Underutilized Species (NUS) in diversifying agriculture, supporting traditional farming systems and improving food and nutritional security particularly in marginal lands, very little attention is being paid to their mainstreaming in national policies and institutions. Based on a detailed review of the regulatory frameworks governing the conservation, sustainable use and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of plant genetic resources and the circulation and registration of seeds and improved varieties, this paper discusses the extent to which the measures in place in India may favour or affect the conservation and use of NUS. In addition to these frameworks, in view of the major change realized by the 2013 National Food Security Act which has included coarse cereals in the country’s Public Distribution System (PDS), the paper also incorporates this latest policy in its analyses. A special focus is given to small millets, a group of species with unexploited economic and nutritional potential but extremely important for marginal communities’ food security and livelihoods. A set of policy recommendations and opportunities to explore are proposed to address the identified constraints with the purpose of creating a more supportive policy environment and enhancing the national capacity to promote NUS.     

重大事项社会稳定风险评估运行框架研究——以城市新区开发建设为例

针对现行的重大事项社会稳定风险评估中存在的问题,提出建立切实可行的评估运行框架。首次以城市新区为评估对象,以发现问题、分析问题、解决问题为主线,采用定性、定量、定位、定策相结合的分析方法,对城市新区开发建设可能存在的社会稳定风险进行评估,以期实现单纯型评估、粗放型评估向精细化评估的转变。从实践层面来说,对其他新区规划的社会稳定风险评估具有借鉴意义。     

改革开放以来党领导民营经济的发展变迁:一个四维分析框架

民营经济是我国经济社会发展的重要基础,在社会主义市场经济体系和现代化经济体系建设中发挥着重要作用。改革开放以来民营经济取得的巨大成绩与党的领导密不可分。新时代要推动民营经济健康发展,应从历史发展中吸取成功经验。为此,从角色认识、政策变化、内容侧重和领导视角四个方面构建一个党领导民营经济发展的分析框架,依据政策文件、关键历史事件等将民营经济的发展进行多维度分析,从历史进程中探寻党领导民营经济持续健康发展的成功经验。     

Assessing qualitative similarities between financial reporting frameworks using visualization and rules: COREP vs. pillar 3

Financial institutions are struggling with larger volume, more specific and greater frequency of regulatory reporting after the global financial crisis in 2008, especially those that need to report to multiple jurisdictions. To help to improve reporting efficiency, this paper aims to assess the existence of similarities between templates related to credit and counter party credit risk of COREP and Pillar 3 regulatory reporting frameworks by applying Correspondence Analysis and Association Rules Mining. Our results suggest a high degree of overlap between these reporting frameworks, more prominently the three business functions as Front office, Finance and Risk. These patterns can be used as guidance for financial institutions to reshape their reporting architecture.     

美国宪法构造的历史逻辑及其宪政文化意义

一方面 ,美国宪法成长的历史轨迹充分反映了宪法发展的自我逻辑 ,并影响和规定了美国宪法的构造。美国宪法的架构是美国社会变迁的制度轨迹 ,其构造规定着美国的权力结构及其行使方式 ,蕴涵了权利至上的宪政理念 ,也塑造了美国独有的分权制衡模式并深刻地影响了西方的宪政架构。另一方面 ,美国宪法的成长有其深厚的社会基础 :以普通法为中心的自然法理念奠定了美国宪法成长的观念性基础 ;多元利益集团是美国宪法得以产生的社会结构基础 ;市场经济的发展对美国宪法的成长提供源源不断的动力。     

中日韩三国的公允价值计量属性比较研究——基于财务会计概念框架角度

作者在研究过程中,综述了公允价值计量属性的相关理论.在比较中日韩三国财务会计概念框架中,作者在公允价值计量属性表述的基础上,分析了中日韩三国之间的差异,提出中日韩会计准则制定机构在公允价值研究领域存在着区域性合作的共同课题,并就加强合作的路径安排提出了笔者的构想.