我国经济结构调整与经济增长的实证研究

经济结构不合理已成为制约我国经济可持续发展的主要瓶颈。本文在分析经济结构调整内涵基础上,整理分析经济结构调整与经济增长的基本逻辑关系,选取消费结构、产业结构、金融结构以及所有制结构作为分析指标,构建VAR分析模型,得出结论：从长期来看,我国经济增长与消费结构、产业结构以及金融结构调整呈正方向变化,与所有制结构呈反向变化;从短期来看,在消费结构、产业结构以及金融结构的冲击下,经济增长呈现波动式变化,所有制结构的不平衡对经济增长呈负反应。     

Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys

Decomposing Granger causality over the spectrum allows us to disentangle potentially different Granger causality relationships over different frequencies. This may yield new and complementary insights compared to traditional versions of Granger causality. In this paper, we compare two existing approaches in the frequency domain, proposed originally by Pierce [Pierce, D. A. (1979). R-squared measures for time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 901–910] and Geweke [Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 304–324], and introduce a new testing procedure for the Pierce spectral Granger causality measure. To provide insights into the relative performance of this test, we study its power properties by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, we apply the methodology in the context of the predictive value of the European production expectation surveys. This predictive content is found to vary widely with the frequency considered, illustrating the usefulness of not restricting oneself to a single overall test statistic.     

山东省农业贷款与农业产业发展关系的实证分析

近年来,党中央、国务院对农业发展给予了高度重视。而农业的发展离不开金融机构的支持,农业贷款与农业发展之间存在紧密联系。对山东省1980～2005年期间农业贷款和农业产业发展的关系进行实证分析。结果表明山东省农业贷款与农业发展之间存在单向因果关系,该地区的农业贷款对农业产业的发展有促进作用,而农业生产总值的增长对农业贷款增加的推动作用则不明显。     

Untersuchung über die Kränklichkeit in den staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen Schwedens

Abstract

Von den Vorschriften, die für die staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen gelten, werde ich hier nur so viel mitteilen, was für den Aufbau der mathematiscben Formeln notwendig ist, sowie einige Tatsachen, die bei Vergleichen mit anderen Kränklichkeitsmaterialien von Bedeutung sind. Im übrigen wird auf das Gesetz über Krankenkassen hingewiesen.     

Is doing good good for you? how corporate charitable contributions enhance revenue growth

This study examines the impact of corporate philanthropy growth on sales growth using a large sample of charitable contributions made by U.S. public companies from 1989 through 2000. Applying Granger causality tests, we find that charitable contributions are significantly associated with future revenue, whereas the association between revenue and future contributions is marginally significant at best. We then identify the mechanism underlying our findings. Our results are particularly pronounced for firms that are highly sensitive to consumer perception, where individual consumers are the predominant customers. In addition, we document a positive relationship between contributions and customer satisfaction. Overall, our evidence suggests that corporate philanthropy, under certain circumstances, furthers firms' economic objectives. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Information flow between prediction markets,polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries

Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain information about election outcomes that polls taken shortly before the contests do not. Conversely, election surprises relative to polls too Granger cause subsequent price movements. We then investigate whether the additional information in prices could come from the media coverage of these campaigns, and uncover a set of complex relationships between pollster’s surprise, price movements, and various aspects of media coverage. Prices anticipate the balance and content of media coverage, but not the volume. On the other hand, it is the volume of media coverage, not the balance or content, that anticipates the surprise element in election outcomes. Moreover, Granger causality between prices and election surprises barely changes after controlling for media coverage, and causality from media volume to surprises persists too after controlling for price movements. Taken together, the results suggest that both prices and the volume of media coverage contain independent election-relevant information that is not captured in polls.     

我国通货膨胀的原因辨析：1978-2007——一种源自Grange检验的否定

基于1978-2007年的数据,本文运用Grange检验法对我国改革开放三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因进行了辨析。通过对有关文献提出的相关变量进行检验发现：各个特殊阶段通货膨胀的影响因素并不是三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因;而适度的通货膨胀却对经济增长、进出口增加、固定资产投资总额以及平均工资的增长均具有正向促进作用,表明适度的通货膨胀在我国改革开放中是“非中性”的。     

广东省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

以广东省1987～2008年的相关数据,综合运用平稳性检验、协整检验、VAR模型和Granger因果关系检验等计量方法,对广东省对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。根据分析得出广东省对外贸易与经济增长之间的定量关系,以期能为政策制定者提供一定的参考依据。     

农业行业标准对我国农产品贸易竞争力影响的量化研究

针对我国农产品进出口总额不断扩大,农产品贸易竞争力却日趋下降这一问题,文章采用1985-2008年间的经济数据,就我国农业行业标准的制定和农产品出口增量对我国农产品贸易竞争力影响进行协整检验和格兰杰检验,实证分析显示我国农业行业标准的制定对我国农产品贸易竞争力有促进作用;农产品出口增量对我国农产品贸易竞争力有抑制作用;最后为增强我国农产品竞争力提出了政策建议。