Research on the Credit Cycle and Business Cycle with a Focus on Ten States from Central,Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

By performing an econometric analysis of the credit cycle and business cycle from an individual as well as a comparative perspective, with a focus on ten relevant economies from the areas of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, this research offers a fresh view regarding the importance of banks in promoting long-term economic growth through their lending capacity. The purpose is to better understand the behavior (the short- and medium-term dynamics) of the credit cycle and business cycle and the effects of the interactions between them. The results of this study offer valuable insights for both academics and policymakers and provide a warning to regulators not to overregulate or put too much pressure on banking activity.     

低碳经济视角下的信贷支持研究——以江苏为例

本文运用kaya等式计算了江苏省1998--2013年的年度碳排放量,选取江苏省1998--2013年单位GDP碳排放量作为低碳经济发展指标、金融机构贷款额占GDP的比例作为金融信贷支持指标,对两者进行实证检验分析。通过单整检验、协整检验和误差修正模型检验,得出江苏省单位GDP碳排放量与金融机构贷款额占GDP比例之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;在利用Granger因果关系检验方法检验江苏低碳经济与其金融信贷支持的相互依存关系时,研究结果显示江苏省金融信贷支持水平对其低碳经济发展影响显著,大力提高金融信贷支持力度和促进碳金融的发展是江苏省低碳经济发展的重要目标。     

上海法治水平对金融发展的影响分析

以1997-2009年的上海数据为样本,通过带有控制变量的向量误差修正模型（VECM）和格兰杰（Granger）因果检验方法,研究法治水平与金融发展规模、效率以及银行业竞争之间的相关关系和因果关系.检验结果表明：法治水平与金融发展规模、效率及银行业竞争之间存在长期稳定均衡关系;法治水平的提高是促进金融发展规模、效率以及银行业竞争的格兰杰原因.因此,“国际金融中心”的建设不仅要注重法律体系的完善,更要加强法治.     

Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach

This paper intends to examine the volatility spillover effect between selective developed markets including U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan and Hong Kong over the sample period from 1996 to 2011. We introduce a Markov switching causality method to model the potential instability of volatility spillover relationships over market tranquil or turmoil periods. This method is more flexible as no prior information on the changing points or size of sample window is needed. From the empirical results, we find the evidence of the existence of spillover effects among most markets, and the bilateral volatility spillover effects are more prominent over turmoil or crisis episodes, especially during Asia crisis and subprime mortgage crisis periods. Moreover, the distinct role of each market is also investigated.     

Public or Private Sector Wage Leadership? An International Perspective*

Whether a government acts as a wage leader, placing pressure on private‐sector wages (more open to competition), or whether it plays a passive role and merely follows wage negotiations in the private sector, there are important implications for macroeconomic development, particularly in small open economies and/or countries that are members of a monetary union, such as those of the European Monetary Union. With the notable exception of the case of Sweden, opinion on this issue is still divided. In this paper, we look at public‐ and private‐sector wage interactions from an international perspective (18 OECD countries). We focus on the causal two‐way relationship between public and private wage setting, confirming that the private sector, on the whole, appears to have a stronger influence on the public sector, rather than vice versa. However, we also find evidence of feedback effects from public wage setting, which affect private‐sector wages in a number of countries. When the private sector takes the lead on wages, there are few feedback effects from the public sector, while public wage leadership is typically accompanied by private‐sector feedback effects.     

Customer demotion in hierarchical loyalty programmes

Hierarchical loyalty programmes are popular in many service industries, as a means to tie customers to the company and improve customer relationships. In these programmes, customers obtain more benefits if they spent more but are demoted if they spent less. This study focuses on demotion and suggests that customer demotion can have an asymmetrical negative effect on customers' trust, commitment, and loyalty. The effect appears strongest for demoted customers with an external locus of causality. An experimental study also shows that customer loyalty is lower for demoted customers than for customers who were never elevated.     

Going Alone: The Case for Relaxed Reciprocity in Freeing Trade

We examine the output elasticity of infrastructure for four South Asian countries viz., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using panel cointegration techniques for the period 1980–2005. In this context, we develop an index of infrastructure stocks and investigate the impact of infrastructure on output. The study finds a long-run equilibrium relationship between output and infrastructure along with other relevant variables, such as gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), labor force, international trade and human capital. The results reveal that GDCF, labor force, export and expenditure on human capital exhibit a positive contribution to output. More importantly, infrastructure development contributes significantly to output growth in South Asia. Further, the panel causality analysis shows that there is mutual feedback between total output and infrastructure development.     

Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use rolling window and time-varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and Granger causality based on a vector error correction model (VECM). When applied to South Africa for the period 1960–2011, the findings are as follows: results from the full-sample VECM indicate that there is no Granger causality between tourism receipts and GDP, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space representation show that tourism receipts have positive-predictive content for GDP for the entire period, with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990. Full-sample time-varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causality between tourism receipts and GDP.     

Cities, hinterlands and agglomeration shadows: Spatial developments in Finland during 1880–2004

This paper analyzes long-term spatial developments in Finland by focusing on two predictions of the new economic geography (NEG) models: the increasing persistence of locational patterns and the rising dominance of growth centers. The empirical analysis is based on regional population data from 1880 to 2004. The results support the hypotheses. Evolutions in rank and rank-size distributions during the processes of industrialization and urbanization suggest increasing persistence of regional structures. The analysis of causal processes between population centers and their hinterlands shows that these regions grew hand-in-hand in the pre-war period, whereas agglomeration shadows started to come about during the post-war period.