Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition

This paper examines the influence of economic integration—widening of the trading area—on economic development and the demographic transition. Economies produce with different technologies depending on their scale. Greater integration between regions (greater extensive scale) is instrumental in changing rates of return, which generates an industrial revolution and provokes changes in child bearing behavior. The demographic transition follows from the mortality response to income and birth response to greater scale. The model is calibrated and simulated using historical data from Europe. Historical evidence is cited to support the idea that integration precedes the dramatic rise in economic growth rates.     

Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development

We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining income levels around the world, using recently developed instrumental variables for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions trumps everything else. Once institutions are controlled for, conventional measures of geography have at best weak direct effects on incomes, although they have a strong indirect effect by influencing the quality of institutions. Similarly, once institutions are controlled for, trade is almost always insignificant, and often enters the income equation with the wrong (i.e., negative) sign. We relate our results to recent literature, and where differences exist, trace their origins to choices on samples, specification, and instrumentation.     

Income inequality, democracy and growth reconsidered

Persson and Tabellini (Persson, T., Tabellini, G., 1992a. Growth, distribution and politics. Eur. Econ. Rev. 36, 593–602; Persson, T., Tabellini, G., 1992b. Growth, distribution and politics. In: Cukierman, A., Hercowitz, Z., Leiderman, L. (Eds.), Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 3–22; Persson, T., Tabellini, G., 1994. Is inequality harmful for growth? Am. Econ. Rev. 84, 600–621) as well as Alesina and Rodrik (Alesina, A., Rodrik, D., 1992. Distribution, political conflict, and economic growth. In: Cukierman, A., Hercowitz, Z., Leiderman, L. (Eds.), Political Economy, Growth, and Business Cycles. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 23–50; Alesina, A., Rodrik, D., 1994. Distributive politics and economic growth, Q. J. Econ. 109, 465–490) have argued that income inequality reduces economic growth rates among democracies because it promotes distributional struggles. In this paper I question the supportive evidence for a number of reasons. Measures of income distribution and democracy are unreliable and permit only very tentative conclusions. Changes in data sources or recoding of some influential cases affect results. It is questionable whether equality effects on growth apply only within democracies, as a median voter interpretation of this relationship should make one expect. The general idea that distributional struggle hurts the growth prospects of nations, however, receives some empirical support.     

经济增长、收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响

文章利用了基于Lorenz曲线进行贫困测度及其分解的方法,实证研究了1985～2003年中国农村的贫困变动,以及经济增长和收入分配对贫困变动的影响.结果表明,经济增长使农村居民收入增加,大幅度减少了贫困,但农村居民的收入差距逐渐拉大,收入不平等加剧部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫成效.     

体制变革背景下的服务业增长：一个定量分析框架

1978-2006年，中国服务业的高速增长与经济体制变革存在着直接的关系。体制变革是过去20多年中服务业增长的一个最重要因素。体制变革一方面通过放松管制提高了服务业占GDP的比重，另一方面，体制变革通过民营化进程降低了服务业的内部产业X-无效率，提高了服务业的金要素生产率。     

对我国经济增长方式转变的新思考

我国经济增长方式长期存在着由粗放型向集约型转变的困扰,表现为经济增长过度依赖于投入的增加,生产技术水平偏低,劳动者素质结构改善缓慢,经济比例关系没有理顺,产业结构不合理现象突出等。转变增长方式的关键在于增强国内自主创新能力,调整和优化产业结构,以科技进步推动经济增长由低质低效向高质高效的转化,以产业结构的调整和优化保障增长目标的实现。     

金融发展和经济增长: 来自中国的实证检验

利用时间序列框架内的格兰杰因果分析、协整技术和向量误差修正模型,本文评价1978-2005年间金融发展与经济增长间的数量联系.实证分析发现,控制政府支出和贸易开放度后,金融体系资金运用和金融深度都是经济增长的格兰杰原因,且都与经济增长正相关.而且,基于自回归分布滞后边界检验和向量误差修正模型,本文也实证检验中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系:分别控制政府支出和贸易开放度后,金融市场总融资额是经济增长的原因,而经济增长是股票市场周转率的格兰杰原因.文章最后给出实证结论和简短的政策建议.     

我国地区经济增长收敛的动态变化:1978—2017年

改革开放40年来，我国地区经济增长收敛现象较为明显。地区人均GDP增长不仅持续上升，而且水平差距也在不断缩小，存在条件收敛现象，并且东部和沿海地区经济增长的"俱乐部收敛"现象显著。进入20世纪90年代后，增长收敛趋势愈发突出，2008年国际金融危机也未影响增长收敛的发展态势。未来要继续坚持改革开放，补上各地制度和要素的短板，积极培育和发展有利于地区人均GDP增长收敛现象产生的一系列基础性因素，以实现区域更加协调发展。     

点轴系统理论及其拓展与应用:一个文献述评

点轴系统理论自1984年提出以来,随着该理论在科学基础、形成机理、过程模式等方面的不断完善,已初步形成了一个完整、系统的理论体系.在此基础上衍生的"T"型空间开发战略广泛应用于国土开发和经济布局,成效显著.自该理论提出以来,在理论拓展和实践应用中涌现出一批成果,点轴系统理论的研究与应用不断深化.     

海峡西岸经济区建设中的经济增长因素分析

建设对外开放、协调发展、全面繁荣的海峡西岸经济区是理论界目前讨论的一个热点问题.本文从分析新古典增长理论、新增长理论及制度变迁理论等有关经济增长的经典理论出发,分析了经济增长综合因素对我省经济建设的贡献率,由此得出未来海峡西岸经济区建设中的经济增长因素只能以技术进步和制度创新为主这一结论,并提出实现经济持续、稳定、协调发展的现实路径选择.