中国——东盟自由贸易区降税效应分析

中国——东盟自由贸易区自启动以来,双方的经贸关系一路“绿灯”,迅速进入“黄金发展时期”,2004年双边贸易额实现了历史性的跨越。本文重点分析“早期收获”方案和《货物贸易协议》降税安排实施后,双方产生的贸易创造效应,以及在开放贸易环境下,从货物贸易角度来分析的转移或获得的有形商品的价值增值。     

Parameter Uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the Environmental Impacts of Economic Policies

Political and economic factors usually determine the harvest sharesallotted to heterogeneous fisher groups harvesting upon the same fishstock. Given that the fishers harvest upon different segments of a fishstock with, for instance, cannibalistic tendencies, the shares allottedmay have considerable effect upon the well-being of the stock and theeconomics of the fishery. This paper analyses an existing allocationrule defining harvest shares allotted to two vessel groups (trawlers andcoastal vessels) in the Norwegian cod fishery. We apply a model with twointeracting age groups within a single fish stock, where the interactionhas both biological and economic implications. Requiring a first bestapproach to an optimal stock size results in no harvest in the firstyears studied. In order to ensure harvest amounts close to the historicharvest, we design a second best model giving optimal biological sharesin the build-up phase of the stock, and bioeconomic optimal shares atthe optimum fish stock level. The second best model recommends that foran increasing stock size the trawlers should obtain decreasing shares.We find that the actual allocation rule functions in a manner oppositeto the second best model, since this rule allocates an increasing shareto the trawlers for an increasing stock size.     

新疆红枣种植规模对产量的滞后影响研究

随着新疆枣树种植规模的不断扩大,新疆的红枣产量也在迅速增长。该文结合枣树生长周期的特 点,运用多项式分布滞后模型（PDL）来分析新疆枣树种植规模的增长对红枣产量增量的滞后影响程度。 根据新疆红枣产业的发展现状,在种植规模不变的假设条件下,利用PDL模型来分析新增种植的枣树对红 枣产量的贡献程度。通过分析,该文认为枣树的种植规模对产量存在着滞后期为7的影响长度。其影响程 度随着时间的增长而增强,直到产量在盛果期稳定下来。同时,利用种植规模变动对产量的滞后影响程度 可以预测出2012～2017年的红枣产量,从而得出新疆红枣产业面临供给单方面暴增的风险这一结论。为了 新疆红枣产业的健康发展,需要及时对红枣产业规模和结构进行调控。     

Increasing Forest Conservation in Norway: Consequences for Timber and Forest Products Markets

This paper analyses the impacts on timber and forest products markets of increasing forest conservation in Norway. A partial equilibrium forest sector model is applied to analyse effects on roundwood and forest products prices, quantities and trade of four alternative conservation extents. These alternatives are based on a recent biological analysis of the conservation needs in order to protect biodiversity in Norway. Roundwood prices are projected to increase moderately when conservation increases domestically only, since the Norwegian forest industry substitutes imported fibre for domestic. The impacts on roundwood prices are more substantial if also Norways forest products trading partners increase the forest conservation. If forest owners voluntarily conserve forests subject to an economic compensation (which currently is the most likely policy in Norway), the model results imply that forest owners on average are better off with increased conservation. Domestic sawnwood production is projected to reduce when assuming increasing forest conservation, while the production level in the pulp and paper industry is almost unaffected in the short-run. Finally, increasing demand for forest products as a result of environmental good-will may increase roundwood prices and harvest levels in unaffected forest areas significantly.