Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty by backward induction

This paper describes a method to solve models with a continuum of agents, incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty. I use backward induction on a finite grid of points in the aggregate state space. The aggregate state includes a small number of statistics (moments) of the cross-sectional distribution of capital. For any given set of moments, agents use a specific cross-sectional distribution, called “proxy distribution”, to compute the equilibrium. Information from the steady state distribution as well as from simulations can be used to chose a suitable proxy distribution.     

成核剂对高流动无规聚丙烯注塑专用料性能的影响

通过成核剂改性高流动无规聚丙烯注塑专用料性能的研究发现:加入成核剂均有不同程度改善PPR的力学性能,NX8000改性PPR的弯曲模量、弯曲强度、冲击强度、洛氏硬度分别提高了8.0%、13.4%、3.0%、8.1%;雾度降低了82.7%、结晶度增加了3℃,成型加工温度降低了40℃。     

Introduction to financial frictions and debt constraints

This is an introduction to the special section on financial frictions and debt constraints.     

Export Behavior and Firm Productivity in German Manufacturing: A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between productivity and exporting in German manufacturing. We find a causal link from high productivity to presence in foreign markets, as postulated by a recent literature on international trade with heterogeneous firms. We apply a matching technique in order to analyze whether the presence in international markets enables firms to achieve further productivity improvements, without finding significant evidence for this. We conclude that high-productivity firms self-select themselves into export markets, while exporting itself does not play a significant role for the productivity of German firms. JEL no. F10, F13, F14, D21, L60     

我国保险代理问题探析

保险代理为保险公司创造了巨大的经济效益和社会效益,然而在实际运行中却存在着各种各样的问题。本文从分析目前我国保险代理所存在的保险企业管理制度不严格、人员素质偏低以及认识不足等问题出发提出了相关对策,以供决策者参考。     

优化国有商业银行层级间权限配置研究

上下级银行间如何合理分配权限,一直是银行改革中的难题。在我国国有商业银行层级管理体制改革经历了高度集权、放权搞活、法人授权等阶段后,又逐步上收管理权限,但存在的一些弊端也日益显现。本文通过将集权契约与授权契约相比较,分析了影响国有商业银行层级间权限配置的因素,并在此基础上,针对我国现行国有商业银行上下级行间权限分配状况和存在问题,提出进一步优化的方案。     

Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation

The increase in the price of gold between 2002 and 2011 appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price ‘bubble’, suggesting that chartists (feedback traders) were highly active in the gold market during this period. Hence, this paper develops and tests empirically several models incorporating heterogeneous expectations of agents, specifically fundamentalists and chartists, for the gold market. The empirical results show that both agent types are important in explaining historical gold prices but that the 10-year bull run of gold in the early 2000s is consistent with the presence of agents extrapolating long-term trends. Technically this paper is a further step toward providing an empirical foundation for certain assumptions used in the heterogeneous agents literature. For example, the empirical results presented in this paper compare the economical and statistical significance of numerous switching variable specifications that are generally only introduced ad hoc.     

The Social Value of Seascapes in the Jurien Bay Marine Park: An Assessment of Positive and Negative Preferences for Change

The Jurien Bay Marine Park, Australia, is known for its pristine seascapes, including views of the ocean and of the coastline. To aid the management of the various seascapes, this paper estimates aspects of the social value of these seascapes through the use of a contingent valuation study. Positive and negative preferences for change were accommodated within the survey design and model estimation. A single‐function extended spike model was employed to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for protection of the seascapes, and was later constrained to a restricted version of a spike model. The restricted model identified that a proportion of the population had a positive preference for change within the seascapes, but a larger proportion had a negative preference, resulting in a positive net WTP to maintain seascapes in their current condition. Seascapes with coastal views were determined as having the highest social value; however, the value of the ocean seascapes followed closely behind. The positive welfare estimate for natural seascapes provides a reason for their preservation.     

投资者信念异质性和适应性对股市价格的影响

考察了异质性信念、具有适应性的交易者相互作用下股市价格行为。通过数字模拟,分析实际市场上常用的价值分析和技术分析策略对价格动力学的作用,说明不同参数对价格行为的影响。