财政和金融服务与城市经济发展——基于面板数据的实证研究

基于面板数据的建模和分析方法,以北京、上海、广州和深圳四个经济发展水平居全国前列的城市的国内生产总值、财政支出、金融机构信贷和保险赔付数据为样本,通过面板协整证实了城市经济发展水平与区域内财政金融水平存在稳定均衡的关系,且存在固定效应;最后使用GLS法估计出了城市经济发展水平与当地财政、信贷和保险服务之间的定性定量关系,认为财政和信贷和对城市经济发展都有正向作用,保险的作用不显著。     

Attrition and Follow‐Up Rules in Panel Surveys: Insights from a Tracking Experience in Madagascar

Most longitudinal surveys recontact households only if they are still living in the same dwelling, producing very high attrition rates, especially in developing countries where rural–urban migration is prevalent. In this paper, we discuss the implications of the various follow‐up rules used in longitudinal surveys in the light of an original tracking survey from Madagascar. This survey attempted in 2005 to search and interview all individuals who were living in the village of Bepako in 1995, the baseline year of a yearly survey, the Rural Observatories. The tracking survey yielded an individual recontact rate of 78.8 percent, more than halving attrition compared to a standard dwelling‐based follow‐up rule. The tracking reveals a very high rate of out‐migration (38.8 percent) and household break‐ups, as three‐quarters of recontacted households had divided between 1995 and 2005. The average income growth of the sample over the period increases by 28 percentage points when follow‐up is extended to those who moved out of their household or village, suggesting that dwelling‐based panels give a partial view of the welfare dynamics of the baseline sample. A higher baseline income per capita is associated with a higher probability of staying in Bepako and of being found in the tracking if one moved out. The hardest people to find are the poorest and most isolated. Special attention should be paid to collecting data that enable the identification and follow‐up of individuals, without which attrition is likely to remain a source of bias even after a tracking procedure is carried out.     

点支承玻璃幕墙的设计与施工技术

文章介绍了点支承玻璃幕墙的设计与施工技术及其施工过程中的质量控制措施。     

The Determinants of Pharmaceutical R&D Expenditures: Evidence from Japan

During the past 20 years, the world pharmaceutical industry has experienced a dramatic increase in R&D intensity. We apply and extend a model developed by Grabowski and Vernon (2000, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 10, 201–215) with a pooled data sample of the 15 publicly listed Japanese drug firms for the period 1987–1998. As in the original study, we find expected returns to be an important determinant of R&D spending in the Japanese drug industry, albeit considerably smaller than in the U.S., which is particularly obvious in the case of returns from newly introduced drugs. However, our results are sensitive to econometric model specification, in particular to controlling for serial correlation and to a dynamic specification of the baseline model. Likewise, estimates on financial constraints are sensitive to model specification, indicating that Japanese drug firms face small or no financial constraints. Our results are consistent with the general literature on R&D investment behaviour, yet raise some methodological questions with regard to the original study.     

台商投资大陆对内资企业溢出效应的实证研究——仅以大陆台资集中区为例

基于大陆台资集中区8个省份的面板数据，在阐述台资溢出效应实现机制的基础上，运用新经济增长理论构建考察溢出效应的动态面板数据模型。研究表明，台资流入对内资企业发展的影响轨迹呈倒u型曲线：不断增长的台资流入确实对内资企业的产出有正溢出效应，但当台资企业所占当地市场份额增加到一定程度时，台资对内资企业的溢出效应可能就会随其投资额的增加逐渐递减，甚至变为负溢出效应。     

液晶面板进口税率调整的保护效应分析

有效保护率分析表明，液晶面板税率上调，将大幅提高液晶面板有效保护率，小幅降低液晶电视有效保护率；数据对比显示：液晶面板税率调整的局部均衡和一般均衡效应已逐步显现，如液晶面板进口价格和数量已开始下降，国内液晶面板价格、产量、产业营收、投资和竞争力有所提升；国内液晶电视产量、出口量已小幅下降；液晶玻璃基板进口激增，液晶面板加工贸易特性日益突出。鉴此，中国须在提高液晶面板税率的同时，调整和优化中间品税率，避免重蹈彩电业关税保护催生加工贸易和核心部件对外高依存的覆辙，切实提升产业结构。     

Financial development and growth: A clustering and causality analysis

This article examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a sample of 69 countries. A regime switching panel vector autoregression model is specified to detect directional changes in finance-growth causality and potential time variation of such causality patterns. In addition, a clustering analysis is performed to identify the presence of convergence clubs based on data properties. The findings show that most countries have switching between two states: one way causality from growth to financial development but not the other way round, and coexistence of bi-directional causality. Poorer countries are represented by a system with stable steady state while the clusters of advanced economies tend to exhibit multiple steady states. The clustering results map closely the degree of financial openness, and the cultural and geographical proximities of member countries.     

进入规制的强度差异及其原因——基于跨国数据的实证研究

进入规制强度反映了国民投资和经营的自由程度,在一定意义上可以代表市场开放程度和国民的实际经济法律地位。文章利用大样本的跨国数据建立面板数据模型,对进入规制强度差异的原因及其影响进行了实证研究,得出经济发展水平、英系法源、重大事件的发生和民主化程度有助于降低进入规制强度的结论。这意味着为了改变我国目前进入规制强度相对较高的现状,不仅需要积极稳妥地推进进入规制改革,更重要的是进一步完善市场机制,提高经济发展水平,尤其要加快我国的社会主义民主政治建设,以提高民主化和法治化水平。     

Does freedom of the press enhance inbound tourism?

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effects of the freedom of the press on inbound tourism in 160 countries for the period from 1995 to 2016. By using the fixed-effects, the Hausman–Taylor, and the dynamic panel data estimation techniques, we show that a higher level of the freedom of the press promotes inbound tourism. The main findings are robust to consider the countries at the different income level, the inclusion of the various control variables, using the different measures of the freedom of the press, excluding the outliers, and excluding the observations in the different regions.     

Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a fiscal devaluation (hereafter, FD), understood as a shift in taxation from labour to consumption, has been debated as a possible tool for restoring competitiveness, particularly in peripheral countries of the Eurozone. We contribute to this debate. Based on a set of panel and spatial panel models for the EU 27 over the period 1995–2014, we find that FD works, especially where economic activity is heavily subdued and in sectors more exposed on external competition. FD increases value added in exports, improves net exports, accelerates GDP and employment growth, and decelerates growth in labour costs. These effects are nonlinear; they are stronger in the members of the Eurozone and weaker in countries with either more coordinated or more centralised wage bargaining processes or more generous unemployment benefits. The magnitude of these effects is dampened by strict regulatory barriers: they are weaker in countries with higher barriers to entrepreneurship, trade and investment. Most importantly, FD is not a beggar thy neighbour policy, at least in the EU. In our sample, the aggregate demand (‘cooperative’) effect of unilateral FD, which is beneficial for neighbouring countries, outweighs by far the expenditure switching (‘competitive’) effect, which comes at the expense of other countries’ competitiveness. FD implemented in one country can benefit other countries, provided that they are strongly integrated in global value chains. These findings are robust to changes in the estimation methods, the sample composition, the set of explanatory variables and the selection of a spatial weight matrix.