Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology,With an Application to Italy

We contribute to the debate on how to assess the size of the underground (or shadow) economy by proposing a reinterpretation of the traditional Currency Demand Approach (CDA) à la Tanzi. In particular, we introduce three main innovations. First, we take a direct measure of the value of cash transactions—the flow of cash withdrawn from bank accounts relative to total non‐cash payments—as the dependent variable in the money demand equation. This allows us to avoid unrealistic assumptions on the velocity of money and the absence of any irregular transaction in a given year, overcoming two severe critiques to the traditional CDA. Second, in place of the tax burden level, usually intended as the main motivation for non‐compliance, we include among the covariates two direct indicators of detected tax evasion. Finally, we control also for the role of illegal production considering crimes like drug dealing and prostitution, which—jointly with the shadow economy—contributes to the larger aggregate of the non‐observed economy and represents a significant component of total cash payments. We propose then an application of this “modified CDA” to a panel of 91 Italian provinces for the years 2005–08.     

中国企业应对国际合法林产品贸易需求现状调研分析

在问卷调查,利益方访谈和实地调研的基础上,对中国企业应对国际合法林产品贸易需求的现状进行了调查和分析,包括对非法采伐贸易法规的认知程度、产生的影响、市场需求、已有的应对措施、面临的挑战,并提出了如何应对的政策建议。结果表明:欧美发达国家纷纷出台的针对非法采伐的贸易法规已对包括中国在内的国际林产品贸易产生了重要影响;中国企业在满足国际市场林产品合法性要求还面临很多的困难与挑战,应从政策、技术、管理和能力建设等多方面提供支持。     

Market overreaction and investment strategies

We investigated the overreaction of the Korean market in response to shocks in the US stock market, and analysed the dynamic relationship between these two markets since 1996. We found that the KOSPI 200 index futures overreacted to the S&P 500 index returns during the period from 2000 to 2009 when the Korean market was in its growth stage. As the Korean market matured and the KOSPI 200 overnight futures were introduced in 2009, the overreaction disappeared. When investors employed the Kelly model or Value-at-Risk to exploit the overreaction, their trading strategies produced significant profits during the growth stage even after considering transaction costs and risk, but the profits attenuated once the overnight futures market was launched in 2009.     

议对外商非法撤资的法律规制

进入2008年以后,我国部分地区却密集出现了较为严重的外商非法撤资的情况。非法撤资对当地经济更是雪上加霜,同时造成了企业职工、中方合作者、企业供货商等相关权益人的巨大利益损害。本文通过介绍非法撤资的现状,分析了非法撤资产生的原因以及带来的危害,进而讨论了对非法撤资的法律规制途径,希望能够提出一些有价值的建议。     

Threatened Species as Public Goods and Public Bads

This paper discusses Pareto efficient allocations of an environmental commodity, which is both a public good and a public bad, with an application to the Scandinavian problem of conserving wild predators that are killing semi-domesticated reindeer. The paper begins by briefly outlining this conflict. This is followed by a theoretical analysis employing a diagrammatic tool called the Kolm triangle, which is an analogue of an Edgeworth box in an economy with a public good. Bargaining, Pareto improving reallocations and the shape of the Pareto set are discussed, using a simple model, where one of the agents is involountarily contributing to a public good. The paper concludes with an analysis of income-loss compensations and incentives for illegal hunting of predators.     

Exploring the Structure of the Illegal Market for Cannabis

Summary This paper explores the middle and retail levels of the illegal market for cannabis in New Zealand using national household drug survey data. Those who reported purchasing half or full ounces of cannabis were defined as middle level market participants, while those who purchased smaller weights or merely used cannabis were defined as retail level participants. Those who had purchased cannabis were then further categorised as either cannabis ‘buyers’ (i.e. those who only purchased sufficient cannabis for their own consumption needs) or cannabis ‘dealers’ based on whether the surplus of cannabis they had, after their own personal consumption was deducted, exceeded the legal definition of cannabis dealing (i.e. possession of 28 g of cannabis or more). Nine per cent of those who had purchased cannabis in the previous year were categorised as middle level participants with 69% of these defined as middle level dealers and 31% as middle level buyers. Middle level cannabis dealers were projected to earn, on average, $2927 (NZD) net annual profit from selling surplus (rate of return of 34%). There was a wide variation in the projected net earnings of the middle level cannabis dealers with the majority earning only modest incomes (bottom 50% – $260 per year, top 10% – $25000 per year). Participants at all levels of the market commonly reported receiving cannabis for ‘free’ and this is likely to reflect the social sharing of cannabis during group consumption and non-cash payments for cannabis. This barter and gift giving tradition may provide cannabis users with a degree of insulation from any price increases for cannabis brought about by law enforcement activity. Cannabis selling creates a convenient source of income for heavy cannabis users to finance their own personal cannabis consumption, which may also dampen the impact of any rise in price brought about by law enforcement success.The 2003 HBS-Drug Use was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Health and carried out as part of the Public Health Intelligence (PHI) Health Behaviours Survey Monitor. The statistical design for the 2003 survey was completed by Dr. Megan Pledger at SHORE, and by James L. Reilly from Statistical-Insights. The questionnaire was adapted and extended from the National Drug Survey questionnaire for the Health Behaviours programme by Dr. Chris Wilkins. Data collection was managed by Dr. Chris Wilkins, Rachael Lane, Joe Morley and Mary Blade. The statistical analysis of 2003 HBS-Drug Use was completed by Paul Sweetsur. The analysis in this paper was partly funded by the New Zealand Police.     

No‐take marine reserves and illegal fishing under imperfect enforcement

No‐take marine reserves have been increasingly advocated as an effective means of supporting marine ecosystems and conserving fisheries resources. A major problem that can hinder the effectiveness of no‐take reserves is the incidence of illegal fishing, which has created significant ecological and economic losses in global fisheries. We construct a bioeconomic model to explore the connection between the effects of no‐take reserves and illegal fishing activities in relation to the level of regulatory control of illegal activities in the reserve and fished areas. Our parameterised model shows that the effects of no‐take reserves on both the extent of illegal fishing and the fish biomass critically depend on illegal fishing regulations and the scale and patterns of fish dispersal. In a fishery where illegal fishing can only be partially controlled, increasing the size of the no‐take reserve may result in a lose‐lose situation in which the level of illegal fishing effort increases and the total biomass decreases. Our results further show that when the pattern of fish dispersal is density dependent, imposing a stricter control on illegal fishing in either reserves or fished areas increases the aggregate level of illegal fishing.     

人民币隔夜利率指数及其信息价值

本文以隔夜SHIBOR为基准,借鉴美国隔夜指数互换期货,首次提出了人民币隔夜利率指数以及指数隐含利率。通过研究指数与期限利率的信息传递关系,构建指数和指数隐含利率动态数据,分析了指数的信息价值。研究结果认为,人民币隔夜利率指数衍生品能有效对冲隔夜利率风险,促进金融市场信息效率,强化各期限利率关系。指数的信息价值包括:预测市场利率变化趋势,预测货币政策,定量刻画银行体系风险溢价水平。