Geographic disparities in rural land appreciation in a transforming economy: Chile, 1980 to 2007

This paper reports on a research effort to gather and analyze rural land value data during a period of unprecedented growth in Chilean agriculture. This information is important to understand the geographical distribution of gains associated with the transformation of the rural sector during a period of rapid development, trade liberalization and transition toward a predominant emphasis on export earnings in agriculture. A large set of data of rural land transactions for 1980, 1990, 1997 and 2007 were collected from a sample of land registry offices. Results show notable declines in the physical size of transactions, significant average annual rates of increase in real per-hectare values, and a small-parcel premium for rural land associated with non-farm land use. Overall real land values have increased faster than the average annual growth rates in the agricultural sector’s value added, suggesting that land owners have gained proportionately more than other claimants to sectoral income. Tests show significant geographic disparities in annual rates of land appreciation across regions and municipalities. Consistent with differential net gains due to integration into world markets and the geographic heterogeneity of suitability for different land uses, northern areas, with greater emphasis on export-oriented crops, have experienced the highest average rates of annual real per-hectare value growth, in the order of 7 percent, while southern areas, emphasizing traditional crops and pastures/livestock, have experienced growth rates of half that. Geographic disparities are also explained by proximity to urban population and income centers.     

Macroeconomic impacts on commodity prices: China vs. the United States

This study compares the macroeconomic impacts of China and the United States on international commodity markets using a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model with latent factors extracted from a rich data set that includes various macroeconomic and financial indicators at monthly frequency. The main results suggest that whether or not the Chinese demand cause commodity prices to soar depends. Macroeconomic factors of China do have significant impact on commodity markets, but the impacts of the United States outperform those of China in terms of the size of coefficients and their level of significance, as well as the direction and magnitude of directional return spillovers. Moreover, the effects of these factors on individual commodity futures are not a universal phenomenon. Therefore, there is no systematic evidence of a relationship between strong growth in the emerging economy and the boom in commodity futures prices, either statistically or economically.     

Housing Collateral and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

In this paper, we quantify the effects of the recent increase in the housing loan‐to‐value ratio (LTV) on the monetary transmission mechanism. We set up a two‐sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with collateral constraints and production of goods and housing. Using Bayesian methods, we quantify the component of the monetary transmission mechanism that is generated by housing collateral. We find that this component is substantial and strongly increasing in the LTV. We conclude that in order to properly understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we need to take into account the effects of housing‐related collateral constraints and their changing nature.     

Remedy or Poison: Impacts of China's Outward Direct Investment on Its Exports

During the past decade, China's outward direct investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, drawing increasing attention to the relationship between them. Using the gravity model based on panel data on China's ODI and trade to 174 countries and regions during 2003–2012, the present paper investigates the impacts of China's ODI on exports. We find that China's ODI to a host country significantly promotes China's trade with that economy: a 10‐percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14‐percent increase in exports, a 2.07‐percent increase in imports and a 2.87‐percent increase in net exports. The scale of the host country's economy, its infrastructure and its distance to China also have significant impacts on China's exports. Therefore, growth in ODI will facilitate China's trade and integration into the global economy, and enhance industrial upgrading in China by transferring the low‐end industries abroad.     

The Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on Stock Prices in China

Since removal of the peg in July 2005, China has entered a new era of a managed floating exchange rate system. Although many observers have raised concerns about the impact of such a policy change on China's trade surplus, less attention has been paid to its effects on financial markets. This paper investigates the impact of recent renminbi appreciation on stock prices in China since removal of the peg, using threshold cointegration and momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM). The results clearly illustrate that no short-run causal relation exists, and an asymmetric causal relationship running from the renminbi/U. S. dollar exchange rate to Chinese Shanghai A-share stock prices in the long run is based on M-TECM. Policy and the broader implications of the findings are discussed.     

Reexamining the Price Effects of Assumption Financing: The Case of Above-Market Interest Rates

Although previous research addresses the price effects of below-market loan assumptions in housing transactions, no direct evidence exists regarding the price effects of above-market loan assumptions. This study develops a hypothesis of strictly nonnegative price effects in assumption financing and empirically documents a positive impact in housing transactions involving above-market loan assumptions. Based on a switching regimes regression analysis of 2,669 single-family house transactions, we find evidence of a significant price premium in moderately priced homes involving above-market loan assumptions but no evidence for a financing premium for more expensive homes. The results suggest that the sources of the premium in the moderately priced home market are the assuming buyer's motivations to minimize transactions costs and to avoid lenders' qualification criteria.     

湖南家具业对外贸易的现状与问题分析

本文聚焦湖南家具业的生产与流通状况,从进出口的规模、品牌化程度、商品结构及市场分布上进行对比性分析,就贴牌、缺乏原创、利润率低、市场集中等问题剖析并指出相应的崛起对策。     

会展活动对主办城市经济的影响研究——基于广交会的实证分析

目前,会展活动所产生的经济效应越来越受到业界和学术界的关注,以广交会为研究对象,通过建立多元回归分析模型,实证检测了广交会促进广州经济增长的具体程度,并且采用灰色关联分析法深入剖析了广交会对广州经济的影响机理,结果表明：广交会对广州经济的影响主要是通过提升对外开放水平、促进产业结构升级和提高城市消费水平来实现,广交会对广州城市基础设施建设和就业水平的带动作用不是很明显。     

Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets

The hypothesis that stock market price indices follow a random walk is tested for five European emerging markets, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Turkey, using the multiple variance ratio test. In four of the markets, the random walk hypothesis is rejected because of autocorrelation in returns. For the Istanbul market, which had markedly higher turnover than the other markets in the 1990s, the stock price index follows a random walk. This contrasts with the results of earlier research, carried out for periods of lower turnover, which rejected the random walk hypothesis.     

Welfare Policy in the Presence of Unionised Labour and Internationally Mobile Firms*

To what extent does the welfare state exacerbate the loss of jobs due to offshoring? We consider a model with oligopolistic sectors that are exposed to offshoring, as well as a unionised labour force that is entitled to unemployment benefits. We find that deeper economic integration induces wage moderation to the point that wages become independent of workers' outside options. Because the entire incidence of redistribution falls on net wages, the unions' willingness to moderate wages is constrained by the level of redistribution. Beyond an upper limit of redistribution, extending the welfare state compels unions to oppose wage moderation at the cost of losing jobs to offshoring. Below that upper limit, however, redistribution becomes less rather than more distortive.