Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

区分不同收入层次,启动农村消费

目前,消费不足是制约内需扩大和经济高效增长的关键因素。而在消费中,与城镇消费相比,农村消费严重滞后,因此刺激消费的重点在于启动农村消费。制约农村消费需求增长的因素有很多,然而针对不同收入层次的农民,影响其消费的各主要因素存在明显差异。因此,应区分不同收入层次,施以不同对策措施,启动农村消费。     

强化企业集团财务预算管理

财务预算是行为计划的量化,能使管理者全盘考虑整个企业集团价值链之间的相互联系,保证企业各项目标的不断提高和优化,是体现企业业绩的一种好的管理模式。财务预算的全过程会促进管理者及全体员工面向未来,促进发展,有助于增强预见性,避免盲目行为,激励员工完成企业的目标。强化企业集团的财务预算管理,必须采取一系列对策措施,才能行之有效。     

论新形势下收入分配中"效率与公平"关系

“效率与公平”是收入分配中一对永恒的矛盾。应当根据不同时期经济社会发展的形势采取不同的指导方针,作者根据当今社会经济发展的新形势,提出了调整收入分配上的“效率优先”原则,改行效率与公平并重,实现效率与公平的统一。     

中国经济真的动态无效吗

史永东与杜两省、史永东与齐鹰飞、袁志刚与何樟勇相继考察了中国经济的动态效率,结果均表明中国经济是动态无效的.本文首先通过实证研究进一步检验上述结论,并进而追问中国经济为什么会发生动态无效.笔者的分析表明,这种无效性只是一种表象,它是由我国的粗放式经济增长方式决定的,其根源在于静态资源配置,特别是投资配置的无效性.在此基础上,本文进而指出,上述作者提出的消除无效性的政策建议是不恰当的,真正有效的途径只有转变增长方式,提高增长绩效.     

旅游业乘数研究辨正

乘数效应是研究旅游业经济影响中广泛使用的一种方法.但"旅游业乘数"是一个伪命题,现有的模型、计算方法是不可靠的,广泛引用的数据也不可信.本文分析了旅游业乘数研究的不足,并提出了几点建议.     

社会养老保险新政的运行效果分析——基于沈阳市国有大型企业的调查

利用调查数据重点考察了社会养老保险新政的实际运行效果,指出了目前存在职工参保意愿不强烈、政策有效性尚不明显、对制度长期建设缺乏信心等现实问题,以期对养老保险制度的改革完善提供理论和政策依据。     

纳税影响会计法的具体运用

本文根据纳税影响会计法的核算原理,介绍了一种简便适用的操作方法。     

制度变迁的动因与效应分析

就制度变迁概念的各种观点作了较深入的比较分析,同时从利益动因、公平效应、效率效应和自由效应等方面阐述了制度变迁的形成原因。