Inferring repeated-game strategies from actions: evidence from trust game experiments

Summary. Combining a strategy model, an inference procedure and a new experimental design, we map sequences of observed actions in repeated games to unobserved strategies that reflect decision-makers’ plans. We demonstrate the method by studying two institutional settings with distinct theoretical predictions. We find that almost all strategies inferred are best responses to one of the inferred strategies of other players, and in one of the settings almost all of the inferred strategies, which include triggers to punish non-cooperators, are consistent with equilibrium strategies. By developing a method to infer unobserved repeated-game strategies from actions, we take a step toward making game theory a more applied tool, bridging a gap between theory and observed behavior.Received: 23 December 2002, Revised: 19 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C80, C90.The authors are indebted for discussions with Ray Battalio, David Cooper, Robin Dubin, John Duffy, Ellen Garbarino, Susan Helper, Margaret Meyer, John Miller, Jim Rebitzer, Mari Rege, Al Roth, and John Van Huyck. The authors also benefited from discussants at economic department seminars at Case Western Reserve, McMaster and McGill University, University of Pittsburgh, SUNY-Stony Brook, and Texas A&M, and participants at the 2002 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society. We are grateful for the financial support provided by the Department of Economics at the University of Pittsburgh and Case Western Reserve University.     

中国生殖健康产业的需求与市场

根据生殖健康的内容 ,将生殖健康产业划分为两大市场和 7类产品。通过对人口、购买力和购买欲望发展趋势的分析 ,提出中国生殖健康产业市场需求潜力巨大的预测。在培育生殖健康产业的过程中 ,产业发展要素的协调、市场化的策略与步骤、多方面合作的机制是政府目前需要优先考虑的三大问题     

以企业再造思想振兴东北老工业基地

从企业再造理论产生的背景和东北老工业基地的实际情况来看,在振兴东北老工业基地的实践中应贯彻企业再造思想.要以企业再造思想为指导,把整个东北地区看做一个大组织,搞好地区的文化建设;要从企业再造理论的精神实质出发,建立新的完善的市场机制;要坚持企业再造思想所强调的三个核心原则,搞好东北地区的行政改革.     

区域产业簇群的发展与政府职责

本文认为,现代产业簇群是基于地缘关系、产业技术链、同业交往等关系而共生的产生群体,是提高国家经济实力和国际竞争力的重要途径。它的产生与发展是技术进步和社会分工的结果,是产业发展的客观规律,经济全球化是现代产业簇群的必然趋势。为了促进我国产业簇群的发展,文章提出,政府在产业簇群的发展中应遵循产业簇群的发展规律,充分发挥其在重视与定位、研究与规划、宣传与传播、引导与协调、支持与宽容、保障与政策等方面的职能。     

试论市场经济条件下的经济计划

在商品货币关系广泛存在的情况下,要想恰当有效地按比例分配社会劳动时间,既离不开市场的作用,也离不开计划的作用。这既为资本主义社会的实践所证明,也为社会主义社会的实践所证明。对这个问题进行深层次的分析,可以从生产关系与生产力、上层建筑与经济基础的关系上,从计划与市场的内在统一性上。从计划与市场两种手段的不同特点上找到理论根据。在市场经济条件下,并不排斥计划的作用,但计划工作必须进行改革使之与发展市场经济相适应。     

全面理解人力资本的经济价值——教育经济学与培训经济学的融合

教育经济学不应只是正规学校教育的经济学,在终身学习的理念下,正规学校教育的结束并不意味着学习步伐的停滞和人力资本投资的终结。教育经济学未来拓展的路径,除了理论基础上的"外延式"发展外,还可以在原有的人力资本理论框架内走一条"内涵式"发展的道路,即强调综合考察人力资本投资的多种途径,特别是教育和培训这两种最主要的人力资本投资形式,让教育经济学走出正规学校教育经济学的固有领地,团结在人力资本理论的名义下,与培训经济学融合,走向人力资源开发研究的广阔天地,惟其如此,才能全面、深入地研究人力资本的经济价值及其实现机制。     

Towards a complete real-time electricity market design

The general design for the real-time electricity market presented in this paper optimizes and prices both real and reactive power simultaneously in an AC setting, where all assets—generation, load and transmission—are allowed to bid and are financially settled at the locational price times energy consumed or produced. The result is that transmission lines are compensated for both capacity and admittance, providing incentives for efficient operation of transmission-related assets such as FACTS devices, if price-taking behavior is assumed. Losses are incorporated into the design and become an operating cost for transmission. The market design is shown to be revenue neutral and, under some assumptions, nonconfiscatory.      

基于“行为经济学理论”的旅游者行为分析

传统的旅游者行为分析方法,主要是进行定性的分析,将各个因素进行框架分析,而对旅游者行为的影响因素分析深度不够。借助行为经济学的理论和分析方法,从旅游者的心理活动角度入手,注重旅游者的心理变量分析,应用前景理论和心理账户分析旅游者行为,充分考虑了情境因素和体验因素,使得关于旅游者的行为分析更加细化和接近现实生活。     

Study on formation mechanisms of Gannan navel orange characteristic industrial clusters on organizational ecology

The planter history of Gannan navel orange might trace to 1970s, up to now underwent in more than 30 years. Approximately, the development historical division on the Gannan navel orange is 4 stages. The natural environment factor, the customer factor, and the political factor have played crucial roles in the formation and development of GNOCIC. Among them, the rich natural resource and the superior geographical environment are the material base. And government＇s support is the main propelling force. The customers＇ expense is the final decision strength by chance which it develops, expands.     

产业集群竞争力分析——以辽宁汽车产业集群为例

运用一种研究产业集群竞争力的量化分析工具——GEM模型,构建了辽宁汽车产业集群竞争力评价表,对该集群的各要素进行了竞争力的综合分析。分析结果表明:辽宁汽车产业集群在全国范围内已经有一定的竞争力,但在设施、企业结构、战略和竞争方面得分都低于全国平均水平,已成为制约其进一步发展的瓶颈因素,因而从"基础","企业","市场"方面给出了提升辽宁汽车产业集群竞争力对策建议。