经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。     

经济增长的变化本质

在过去的一个世纪中,富裕国家的经济本质已经发生了巨大的变化。因此,文章提出“技术生理演变(technophysio evolution)”概念,即快速技术变化和人类生理进步的协同作用。这主要表现在以下三个方面：(1)消费结构和工作体闲时间分配的改变;(2)经济和家庭产出分配方面受高水平经济成就的影响;(3)全球市场迅速急剧转向耐用消费品和高科技服务。     

On wage- and profit-led demand regimes: learning from the evidence

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium.     

北京的经济发展及其增长因素分析

建国以来，北京经济的发展发生了巨大的变化。对于经济增长的因素，主要表现在劳动力数量增加的变化和技术退步等方面。经济发展由资本和劳动力数量的增大等外延的发展形态转换为内涵的发展状态，即劳动力素质的改善、技术的追步以及资本集约度的上升等作为积极因素促进经济的增长。     

Growth,Employment and Taxation with Distortions in the Goods and Labour Market

Abstract. This paper analyses taxation in the presence of distortions in goods and labour markets in an endogenous growth model. The government disposes of capital, labour and consumption taxes. It is shown that the market solution leads to suboptimally low levels of growth and employment. However, available tax instruments are sufficient to attain the first‐best growth path in this economy. The paper further explores the relative distortion of capital and labour taxes. For plausible parametrisations of the model, lowering capital taxes dominate reductions in labour taxes in welfare terms.     

经济增长、结构调整的累积效应与资本形成——当前经济增长态势分析

1990年以来 ,特别是 2 0世纪 90年代中后期 ,中国的经济结构发生了重大调整 :基础设施的投入奠定了城市化的基础 ,工业化在消费和出口的拉动下逐步升级。中国经济增长开始由工业化单引擎发展到工业化与城市化的双引擎。由低价工业化到高价城市化的转化以及与之相应的资金流程与资本形成方式的变化 ,一方面引起近年来中国经济的快速发展 ,另一方面也对未来中国经济的持续增长形成挑战。通过政府体制、金融体系和财税体制的进一步改革 ,完善资源配置方式 ,将是应对挑战、保持中国经济持续增长的保证。     

Industrial revolution and mortality revolution: Two of a kind?

In little more than a century life expectancy has doubled in most parts of the world. Neither facts nor theory support the view that this Mortality Revolution is due to the Industrial Revolution and the era of rapid economic growth that ensued. Rather, both revolutions mark the onset of accelerated and sustained technological change in their respective areas. They occur largely independently of each other, the later occurrence of the Mortality Revolution being due to the later development of biomedical vis-a-vis physical knowledge. Comparative study of the two should prove fruitful. Although entrepreneurship is important in each, there appear to be differences in the underlying motivations and the role of private property and other institutions. Links between technological change, on the one hand, and scale of operation, capital inputs, and education, on the other, also offer promising possibilities for comparative study.The author is grateful to Donna Hokoda Ebata and Christine M. Schaeffer for excellent assistance, the University of Southern California for financial support, and to Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, Morton O. Schapiro, Roger S. Schofield, and two referees for helpful comments.     

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

城市增长与地球环境的关系

为维持地球健康,减少城市对地球环境的影响,以城市有机体的代谢为分析起点,首先从地球系统科学的视角分析城市增长与有限的地球环境资源的矛盾冲突,进而探讨城市无限增长的一种政治经济根源,在此基础上,思考探索城市环境可持续运行的可能途径.     

Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition

This paper examines the influence of economic integration—widening of the trading area—on economic development and the demographic transition. Economies produce with different technologies depending on their scale. Greater integration between regions (greater extensive scale) is instrumental in changing rates of return, which generates an industrial revolution and provokes changes in child bearing behavior. The demographic transition follows from the mortality response to income and birth response to greater scale. The model is calibrated and simulated using historical data from Europe. Historical evidence is cited to support the idea that integration precedes the dramatic rise in economic growth rates.