A strict expected multi-utility theorem

This paper integrates two key approaches to the representation of incomplete preferences over lotteries. The main result strengthens the conclusion of the expected multi-utility theorem in Dubra, Maccheroni, and Ok (2004) by ensuring that all utility indices involved are Aumann utilities (i.e., yield a strictly increasing expectation). The advantages of the method are demonstrated by parametrizing maximal elements and by providing a novel characterization of Aumann utilities.     

PORTFOLIO CHOICE VIA QUANTILES

A portfolio choice model in continuous time is formulated for both complete and incomplete markets, where the quantile function of the terminal cash flow, instead of the cash flow itself, is taken as the decision variable. This formulation covers a wide body of existing and new models with law‐invariant preference measures, including expected utility maximization, mean–variance, goal reaching, Yaari's dual model, Lopes' SP/A model, behavioral model under prospect theory, as well as those explicitly involving VaR and CVaR in objectives and/or constraints. A solution scheme to this quantile model is proposed, and then demonstrated by solving analytically the goal‐reaching model and Yaari's dual model. A general property derived for the quantile model is that the optimal terminal payment is anticomonotonic with the pricing kernel (or with the minimal pricing kernel in the case of an incomplete market if the investment opportunity set is deterministic). As a consequence, the mutual fund theorem still holds in a market where rational and irrational agents co‐exist.     

论公共产品理论与劳动价值论的耦合及其意义

传统劳动价值论对商品范围的界定存在局限。如果把所有能够满足人们需要的用来交换的劳动成果,不管是有形的还是无形的都视为商品,商品就包括私人商品和公共商品(产品)两大类,基于这一认识,实现公共商品(产品)理论与劳动价值论的耦合,不仅有助于丰富、完善劳动价值论,使之经济解释力增强,而且有助于丰富、完善公共产品理论,使之真正成为财政学的理论基础。     

Japanese Consumption,External Disequilibrium and their Statistical Measurement

Georgescu-Roegen's work is usually divided into two categories, his earlier work on consumer and production theory and his later concern with entropy and bioeconomics beginning with his 1966 introductory essay to his collected theoretical papers published in the volume Analytical Economics. Most economists usually praise his earlier work on pure theory and ignore his later work which is highly critical of neoclassical economics. Those economists sympathetic to his later work usually take the position that he “saw the light” and gave up neoclassical theory some time in the 1960s to turn his attention to the issues of resource scarcity and social institutions. It is argued here that there is an unbroken path running from Georgescu's work in pure theory in the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, through his writings on peasant economies in the 1960s, leading to his preoccupation with entropy and bioeconomics in the last 25 years of his life. That common thread is his preoccupation with “valuation.” The choices our species makes about resource use and the distribution of economic output depends upon our valuation framework. Georgescu-Roegen's work begins in the 1930s with a critical examination of the difficulties with the hedonistic valuation framework of neoclassical economics, moves in the 1960s to the conflict between social and hedonistic valuation, and culminates in the 1970s and 1980s with his examination of the conflict between individual, social, and environmental values. This paper traces the evolution of Georgescu-Roegen's thought about valuation and the environmental and social policy recommendations which arise out of his bioeconomic framework.     

效用理论在飞行安全风险评估中的应用

为科学划分飞行安全风险等级,将效用理论引入飞行安全风险领域,利用效用函数,建立了飞行安全风险评估模型。在分析飞行安全风险的基础上,通过定义事故或危险事件损失效应,选取合适的效用函数进行飞行安全风险的度量。模型有效区分了类似飞行事故这样高损失、低概率事件与飞行事故征候这样低损失、高概率事件风险之间的差异,克服了期望值法的局限性。最后通过实例验证了该方法的科学性和有效性。     

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS OF CONSUMPTION-INVESTMENT PROBLEMS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH REGIME SWITCHING

We consider a consumption and investment problem where the market presents different regimes. An investor taking decisions continuously in time selects a consumption–investment policy to maximize his expected total discounted utility of consumption. The market coefficients and the investor's utility of consumption are dependent on the regime of the financial market, which is modeled by an observable finite-state continuous-time Markov chain. We obtain explicit optimal consumption and investment policies for specific HARA utility functions. We show that the optimal policy depends on the regime. We also make an economic analysis of the solutions, and show that for every investor the optimal proportion to allocate in the risky asset is greater in a "bull market" than in a "bear market." This behavior is not affected by the investor's risk preferences. On the other hand, the optimal consumption to wealth ratio depends not only on the regime, but also on the investor's risk tolerance: high risk-averse investors will consume relatively more in a "bull market" than in a "bear market," and the opposite is true for low risk-averse investors.     

The Motivation and Effectiveness of Gas Industry Economic Regulation in New South Wales, 1912–39

The oldest industry in Australia subjected to economic regulation is the gas supply industry in the state of New South Wales. In this paper the aims and motivation of the New South Wales Government in establishing the regulatory regime in 1912 and the subsequent effectiveness in achieving them are determined. Initially the regulatory regime was based on ad hoc arrangements, but eventually a more permanent structure was devised that effectively defused political controversy over gas market pricing and stabilised prices rather than substantially lowered them.     

PRICING AND HEDGING OF DERIVATIVES BASED ON NONTRADABLE UNDERLYINGS

This paper is concerned with the study of insurance related derivatives on financial markets that are based on nontradable underlyings, but are correlated with tradable assets. We calculate exponential utility‐based indifference prices, and corresponding derivative hedges. We use the fact that they can be represented in terms of solutions of forward‐backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) with quadratic growth generators. We derive the Markov property of such FBSDE and generalize results on the differentiability relative to the initial value of their forward components. In this case the optimal hedge can be represented by the price gradient multiplied with the correlation coefficient. This way we obtain a generalization of the classical “delta hedge” in complete markets.     

INDIFFERENCE PRICE WITH GENERAL SEMIMARTINGALES

Using duality methods, we prove several key properties of the indifference price π for contingent claims. The underlying market model is very general and the mathematical formulation is based on a duality naturally induced by the problem. In particular, the indifference price π turns out to be a convex risk measure on the Orlicz space induced by the utility function.     

WATER BILL ESTIMATION WHEN PRICE IS CRYPTIC: EXPERIENCE FROM WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA

For water policy to be effective, policy makers must know how water users perceive and respond to changes in water prices. However, it is not uncommon for water prices faced by consumers to be unclear. In Windhoek, Namibia, the marginal and average water price is difficult to calculate from the information provided in users' utility bills. This paper applies a hedonic pricing approach to investigate price perceptions of water users in a setting with cryptic price information. Using self‐reported water charges as the dependent variable, the pricing model utilises reported utility characteristics and other factors that may affect perceived price. Low‐income standpipe water users report a weighted average monthly charges of N$24.68, whereas users in high income segments report N$521.34. This reflects differences in service levels, possible subsidies to low‐income users and potential errors in respondents' understanding of their water price. Average price per litre (N$11.78 for the low‐use segment; N$1.89 for the highest segment of Tier 1 water use) tends to be perceived as higher by those with lower water use even though average prices in the relevant range should generally be identical.