The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan, London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a concept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method suggested by Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1063–1070, 2003) to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960 onwards. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the institutions to which they are affiliated. We are grateful to Siem Jan Koopman for very helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank P. Cour-Thimann, V. Curdia, F. Drudi, S. McCaw, D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, R. Pilegaard, H. Pill, L. Stracca, T. Laubach, J. C. Williams and the participants of an ECB workshop on natural interest rates.     

The Accounting Profession: Substantive Change and/or Image Management

The accounting profession’s image and reputation is built upon the members of the profession acting with the “highest sense of integrity” in “the public interest” (AICPA, 2003, www.aicpa.org/about). The Enron debacle initiated the latest crisis facing the profession regarding its image and reputation. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) is the largest professional body representing the accounting profession and the one to which regulators have looked in establishing and upholding professional standards relating to the public practice of accounting and auditing. One of the AICPA’s responsibilities is to “promote public awareness and confidence in the integrity, objectivity, competence and professionalism of CPAs ....” (AICPA, 2003, www.aicpa.org/about). We analyze the public statements issued by the AICPA (i.e., press releases, speeches of officers, testimony, published articles) during this ethical and identity crisis beginning with the AICPA’s first public statement on the Enron debacle (AIPCA 2001) and concluding with the AICPA recognizing the need for a “new accounting culture” (Melancon 2002). In order to better understand the public discourse, we use image restoration theory (Benoit, 1995), because it provides a typology of strategies for dealing with the public face of crises. We identify the three most common strategies the AICPA employs during this period. Proposals for taking corrective action represent the most commonly employed strategy, but the analysis also indicates an attempt to evade responsibility by claiming defeasibility and to reduce the offensiveness of the situation by employing a bolstering strategy. A second analysis using DICTION, a software package useful in revealing latent dimensions in a text, indicates that early statements tend to use language related to accomplishing specific action while the later statements tend more toward general language that relates to peoples’ everyday lives. The findings raise questions as to substantive nature of the changes proposed by the AICPA, and thus, the extent to which the public interest is being served by them.     

基于面板模型的中国国债风险溢价实证研究

该研究采用面板模型实证分析了2003年12月至2008年4月上海证券交易所债券市场国债风险溢价与利率期限结构及宏观经济变量的关系。实证结果显示，上期利率期限结构曲线越陡峭，当期国债风险溢价越高；上期通货膨胀水平越高，当期国债风险溢价越高，而再延长一期滞后期，会发现滞后第二期的通货膨胀水平与当期国债风险溢价存在显著负关系；货币供应同比增速增加时，国债风险溢价水平降低。     

新农村建设的宪政思考

从根本上说,新农村建设是农民自由发展的权力问题,仅仅依靠自上而下的行政手段很难实现,政府只有在宪政的框架下,执行依法治国的战略方针,赋予农民宪法规定的各项权力,把形式上的人人平等转化为社会实践,才能最终实现新农村建设的宏伟目标。     

感悟历史 面向未来——纪念中国共产党建党90周年笔谈

中国共产党历来重视党史和党建理论的研究。党史研究已经取得了巨大进展,出现了大量的研究成果,但是在当前及今后的一段时期,对于研究者而言,还有若干问题是需要高度重视并加以切实解决的。在思想作风建设方面,一部马克思主义发展史就是一部不断解放思想的历史,中国共产党的九十年就是不断解放思想的九十年。解放思想永无止境。在我国经济转型期,伴随着社会财富的增加,构建和谐社会必须要注重社会的公平、公正。     

International reserves and global interest rates

In this paper we study the relationship between foreign currency international reserve holdings and global interest rates. To guide empirical work we solve a simple, small open-economy model with money, where the central bank manages international reserves to smooth inflation over time. This model shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to the target level of reserves. As a consequence interest rate hikes increase reserve transfers, defined as the change in international reserves net of the interest earned on reserves. Using quarterly data for 75 countries between 2000 and 2013, we document a positive relationship between interest-rate changes and reserve transfers as a share of GDP, that is consistent with the model.     

Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters: Optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy

How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. While the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap.     

以形成正确认知为基础的就业指导工作流程

职业发展的基础是合理择业,合理择业的基础是正确认知,正确认知的基础是:第一,制定合理的就业指导工作流程;第二,建立健全分层次递进可持续指导的就业指导服务内容体系、组织体系。     

The information in the term structure of German interest rates

This paper tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates using new data for Germany. The German term structure appears to forecast future short-term interest rates surprisingly well, compared with previous studies with US data, while it has lower predictive power for long-term interest rates. However, the direction suggested by the coefficient estimates is consistent with that implied by the EH, that is when the term spread widens, long rates increase. The use of instrumental variables to deal with possible measurement errors in the data significantly improves regressions for the long rates. Moreover, re-estimation with proxy variables to account for the possibility of time-varying term premia confirms that the evolution of both short and long rates corresponds to the predictions of the EH and that most of the information is in the term spread. These results are important as they suggest that monetary policy in Germany could be guided by the slope of the term structure.     

2012年中国货币市场运行报告

文章介绍了2012年货币市场的总体运行情况，指出在国内外经济金融形势复杂多变、国际金融市场跌宕起伏的环境下，2012年我国货币市场平稳健康发展，主要运行特点有：市场规模大幅增长；市场利率有所下行，季节性特点明显；市场主体不断丰富，货币市场流动性管理等功能进一步发挥。