近30年我国农村宅基地有偿使用研究综述与展望

目的 宅基地有偿使用是我国新一轮宅基地制度改革的重要探索内容之一。宅基地有偿使用是促进宅基地集约、高效利用的重要推手,也是显化宅基地财产属性的重要途径。有关宅基地有偿使用的综述研究,已有学者利用文献分析法和归纳总结法进行分析,但是在文献的时效性、研究热点的可视化等方面存在很多问题。方法 文章通过CiteSpace5.6.R5软件对1992—2020年中国知网上“宅基地有偿使用”的发文量、研究热点和演进趋势进行可视化信息分析,并结合具体文献,对农村宅基地有偿使用研究提出了研究述评与展望。结果 （1）从发文量看,宅基地有偿使用的研究可分为萌芽发展、缓慢发展和快速发展3个阶段。（2）从研究热点看,对宅基地有偿使用的研究主要集中在“宅基地有偿使用费”“一户多宅”“超占多占”和“三权分置”等关键词。（3）从演进趋势看,宅基地制度改革与制度设计、宅基地使用权流转、宅基地管理以及三权分置将成为宅基地有偿使用的研究重点。结论 总体展望看,明确宅基地有偿使用的适用情形,研究宅基地有偿使用收费标准和有偿使用资金管理办法,探索宅基地有偿使用与宅基地资格权认定、宅基地登记确权及有偿退出的衔接机制是未来宅基地有偿使用研究中须着重关注的内容。     

1961—2020年宁夏地区极端气候变化趋势及影响因素分析

目的 探明极端气候指数的时空变化特征,明确极端气候变化的影响因素。方法 文章基于1961—2020年宁夏19个气象站点的逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量等数据,采用国际气候诊断与指数小组（ETCDD－MI）定义的极端气候指数,运用线性趋势法、克里金插值法、小波分析等方法,明确宁夏极端气候变化趋势,并探讨人类活动与极端气温变化的关系。结果 （1）宁夏的极端气温指数中,暖夜、夏日日数、持续暖期日数和年最大日最高气温均呈现上升趋势;霜冻日数、冷昼、持续冷日日数均呈现下降趋势,年最大日最低气温呈上升趋势。（2）在空间分布上,暖夜、夏日日数、连续暖期日数和年最大日最高气温的变化率在引黄灌区变化率较大,指数均呈现上升趋势,霜冻日数、冷昼、连续冷期日数在全区均呈现下降趋势,引黄灌区和中部干旱区下降趋势变动较为明显。（3）极端高温指数的变化率在北部引黄灌区较高,全区呈现出升温态势。（4）宁夏4个极端降水指标变化并不显著,但区域间年际变化差异较大,南部山区大部分地区极端降水指数变化率较高且呈正向变化,而北部引黄灌区降水年际变化率远低于南部山区且降水趋于减少。（5）1987—1992年极端高温指数和极端低温指数存在显著共振周期,极端高温指数上升领先极端低温指数。（6）极端气温影响因素分析发现,人口的增长、能源消费碳排放量的增加、城市化率的上升和建筑面积的增加,与月最高温日值都存在线性相关关系,反映出随着人类活动的增加,极端高温指数也存在一定程度的正向关系。结论 极端气候变化特征表明,宁夏地区高温事件增加,低温事件减少,极端降水年际波动幅度较大,地区差异显著,并且人类活动可能与极端气候变化存在相应关系。     

The effectiveness of deservingness‐based advertising messages: The role of product knowledge and belief in a just world

Are advertisements that tell consumers they deserve a product effective? Given evidence showing people are motivated to get what they deserve, we argue that for certain consumers this is the case. In two experiments, we manipulated the type of ad participants viewed for a luxury product and then assessed ad effectiveness. We also measured participants’ belief in a just world (BJW) and product knowledge. Deservingness‐based ads were (a) more effective for strong BJW participants, mediated by the degree to which the ads matched participants’ worldview and justified buying the product, and (b) less effective for high knowledge participants. We conclude that deservingness‐based advertising can be successful, depending on consumer characteristics. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emerging Market Footholds and Knowledge: An Examination of New Product Launch Performance

As developed markets become more saturated, managers increasingly recognize the value of emerging markets as venues for growth opportunities. Yet, launching products into these markets is extremely risky due to weak institutional environments (e.g., lack of physical infrastructure), making success more uncertain. To alleviate this challenge, theory points to using emerging market footholds that yield market-specific knowledge. However, it is unclear whether knowledge is realized and, if so, what facets of harvested knowledge are effective in driving performance. Accordingly, we used data collected from a survey of business professionals to examine emerging market footholds and market-specific knowledge (i.e., customer, competitor, and logistics knowledge). Our results show that the extent of market presence held by an emerging market foothold is positively associated with all types of knowledge, yet only competitor and logistics knowledge—not customer knowledge—is positively associated with product launch performance. A supplemental sample of new product launches in developed markets revealed the opposite results wherein customer knowledge was the only significant predictor. Viewed collectively, the results suggest a market maturity threshold wherein logistics and competitive knowledge becomes less influential in driving performance, and customer knowledge becomes more influential.     

Under what institutional conditions does overseas business knowledge contribute to firm performance?

We examine the extent to which the impact of the overseas business knowledge transferred by returnee entrepreneurs on firm performance is conditional on institutional factors. The findings show that informal institutional differences between the home and host countries strengthen the positive impact of overseas business knowledge on the performance of returnee-founded firms. There is a complementarity between informal institutional differences and local government policy support which jointly enhance the positive impact of overseas business knowledge. However, a well-developed local business infrastructure substitutes for the impact of informal institutional differences on the relationship between overseas business knowledge and returnee venture performance.     

The forecasting ability of solar and space weather data on NASDAQ’s finance sector price index volatility

We examine the impact of solar and space weather events on the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) price index volatility, spanning the period 1998-2018. Comparing MAPE and RMSFE forecasting criteria, for the ARIMA-GARCH model, augmented with exogenous variables, we find that solar and space weather variables contribute statistically significant information with regard to volatility forecasting.     

Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

The forecasting of election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: the outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, the forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares while others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. This paper sets out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluates the performances of prediction markets and opinion polls. We make comparisons along two dimensions, bias and precision, and find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, while prediction markets are good for precision.     

A rare move: The effects of switching from a closing call auction to a continuous trading

This study investigates the effects of switching to a closing continuous trading (CCT) on market quality, while considering the trading behaviors of different types of traders. Investors become more patient in the period preceding the last trading phase, which reduces the bid–ask spread (BAS) in that period. We find an increase in the BAS and volatility during the last trading phase, due to diminishing investor patience. Market volatility and the closing pricing errors relate positively to the trading activities of foreign institutional investors. Overall, the introduction of the CCT worsens the market quality before the closing.     

Knowledge sources and recombination capabilities in developing new convergent products

Recent surge in technological convergences has generated great interests from scholars, managers and policy-makers. Yet, few literatures have investigated firm-specific factors behind developing convergent products. This research has empirically analysed the role of firms’ knowledge recombination capabilities and external collaborations in developing convergent products by using a survey data from 858 Korean firms. The findings suggest that presence of interdisciplinary employees and the strong commitment of CEOs are among the important knowledge recombination capabilities for developing convergent products. When compared to other types of collaboration, the inter-firm collaboration turned out to be the most effective in developing convergent products. We suggest that firms should understand that knowledge generations are becoming more interdisciplinary and employees with interdisciplinary research background are an important enabler of knowledge recombination. We suggest that policy-maker should continue to allocate its resources in supporting inter-disciplinary research programmes.