Time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS model

In this paper, we investigate the relation between time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility using the conditional autoregressive range-mixed-data sampling (CARR-MIDAS) model. The CARR-MIDAS model is a range-based volatility model, which exploits intraday information regarding the intraday trajectory of the price. Moreover, the model features a MIDAS structure allowing for time-varying risk aversion to drive the long-run volatility dynamics. Our empirical results show that time-varying risk aversion has a significantly negative effect on the long-run volatility of renminbi exchange rate. Moreover, we observe that both intraday ranges and time-varying risk aversion contain important information for forecasting renminbi exchange rate volatility. The range-based CARR-MIDAS model incorporating time-varying risk aversion provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of renminbi exchange rate volatility compared to a variety of competing models, including the return-based GARCH, GARCH-MIDAS and GARCH-MIDAS incorporating time-varying risk aversion as well as range-based CARR, CARR-MIDAS and heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR), for forecast horizons of 1 day up to 3 months. This result is robust to alternative risk aversion measure, alternative MIDAS lags as well as alternative out-of-sample periods. Overall, our findings highlight the value of incorporating intraday information and time-varying risk aversion for forecasting the renminbi exchange rate volatility.     

Aggregate stock market behavior and investors’ low risk aversion

This paper studies whether investors’ high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that is able to explain aggregate stock market behavior in the US financial market. We present a consumption-based asset pricing model with a representative agent who has a ‘catching up with the Joneses’ preference to show that high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that can help explain many of the empirically observed properties of the aggregate stock market return, including the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles, the predictability of long-horizon stock returns, and the ‘leverage effect’ in return volatility.     

Parimutuel contests with strategic risk-sensitive bettors

Existing models in the parimutuel betting literature typically explain betting data by either assuming a single, representative bettor with certain risk preferences or by assuming that a number of risk neutral bettors compete strategically within a game theoretic framework. We construct a theoretical framework of parimutuel markets in which we model both strategic interaction and individual bettor risk preferences, distinguishing between sophisticated insiders and recreational outsiders. We solve this model analytically for the optimal insider betting amount in a static symmetric Nash equilibrium. A new data set of 126 million individual horse race bets in New Zealand from 2006 to 2014 allows us to calibrate the model. We find that insiders (those betting $100 or more) outperform outsiders by 7.5% in terms of realized returns. The best fit of the model to the data is obtained when insiders are assumed to be risk neutral and to have an information advantage of 0.08 in probability terms. This finding provides empirical support for the common assumption of risk neutrality in strategic interaction models of parimutuel betting.     

When is the risk of cooperation worth taking? The prisoner’s dilemma as a game of multiple motives

This experimental article helps to understand the motives behind cooperation in the prisoner’s dilemma. It manipulates the pay-off in case both players defect in a two-player, one-shot prisoner’s dilemma and explains the degree of cooperation by a combination of four motives: efficiency, conditional cooperation, fear and greed. All motives are significant but some become only significant if one controls for all remaining ones. This seems to be the reason why earlier attempts at explaining choices in the prisoner’s dilemma with personality have not been successful.     

When an initiative promises more than it delivers: a multi-actor perspective of rural entrepreneurship difficulties and failure in Thailand

National governments invest in initiatives aimed at encouraging rural entrepreneurship on the assumption that it contributes to competitiveness and employment. Empirical findings about one such initiative in Thailand reveal the nature of entrepreneurship difficulties and the diverse expressions of entrepreneurship failure, not only in the sense of termination of activities and exit but also entrepreneurs’ inability to meet the objectives and aims of the initiative. Significant attitudinal inadequacies such as risk aversion, passivity and over-reliance on the public sector complement entrepreneurship resource weaknesses in explaining rural entrepreneurship difficulties and failure. Findings demonstrate inadequacies of one-size-fits-all policies seeking to encourage rural entrepreneurship by failing to address the needs and capabilities of the involved entrepreneurs. The discussion also extends current research, first, by studying rural entrepreneurship within an institutional framework in an emerging market context; second, by conceptualizing rural entrepreneurship failure and attitudinal drivers of such failure; third, by documenting and analysing the nature, sources and consequences of the distinct constructs of ‘rural entrepreneurship difficulties’ and ‘rural entrepreneurship failure’; and finally, by presenting a revised theorization of ‘failure’ in entrepreneurship research which recognizes the diverse forms that failure may assume.     

The role of transaction costs and risk aversion when selecting between one and two regimes for portfolio models

Estimation of the inputs is the main problem when applying portfolio analysis, and Markov regime-switching models have been shown to improve these estimates. We investigate whether the use of two-regime models remains superior across a range of values of risk aversion and transaction costs, in the presence of skewness and kurtosis and no short sales. Our results for US data suggest that, due to differences in their risk preferences and transactions costs, most retail investors may prefer to use one-regime models, while investment banks may prefer to use two-regime models.     

The effects of risk aversion on life insurance ownership of single-parent households

This study investigates the effect of risk aversion of single-parent households with at least one child under 18 on life insurance ownership. Analysing the 1992–2013 Survey of Consumer Finances datasets, we found that the likelihood of owning term life insurance decreases as risk aversion increases, but the likelihood of owning cash-value life insurance increases as risk aversion increases. Smokers were less likely to own term life insurance but more likely to own cash-value life insurance than comparable non-smokers.     

Effects of price sorting display on extreme option choice aversion: The role of ease of comparison in multiple option displays

Due to the popularity of online travel agency (OTA) booking platforms, OTAs display diverse information, including features of products, on their websites. Based on choice architecture literature, this study aimed to examine the effect of product quality and price sorting (vs. non-sorting) on extreme option choice aversion and identify the moderating effect of displays that made it difficult to read information. The results of a series of four experimental studies (total n = 2838 online panel members) demonstrated that the tendency to choose the non-extreme or middle-attributed options was stronger when quality and price were displayed sorted (vs. non-sorted). It was theorized that easy comparison of multiple options leads to decision-making. The positive effect of quality and price sorting on extreme option choice aversion was significantly reduced when customers had difficulty reading the displayed information.