广东省土地利用变化时空分异及其与城市化和工业化的耦合关系

研究目的:分析广东省1996—2008年土地利用变化趋势和特征,划分快速型、中速型、慢速型和稳定型4种土地利用变化类型,探讨土地利用变化与城市化和工业化耦合关系。研究方法:GIS技术,统计分析与耦合分析方法。研究结果:珠江三角洲地区土地利用变化剧烈,粤东地区次之,粤西地区和北部山区相对稳定;城市化、产业非农化与综合土地利用动态度有较高一致性,表现出良好的正相关性。土地利用变化越剧烈的地区,其城市化进程和工业化进程对土地利用变化的影响越大;处于城市化加速和完成阶段、工业化中期和后期的县市区土地利用变化剧烈。研究结论:城市化和工业化的迅速发展是导致土地利用变化的重要因素,必须通过掌握广东省土地利用变化的时空分异及其与城市化、工业化耦合关系,合理调控未来各区域土地利用发展方向。     

基于协整理论和前移回归模型的福建省耕地资源变动预测及其驱动机制研究

研究目的:探索改进时间序列预测法与多因素预测法在区域耕地资源变动预测及驱动机制分析方面局限性的途径。研究方法:(1)引入协整理论有关方法对时间序列数据平稳性及协整性进行分析和评估,为驱动机制研究提供思路;(2)探索构建具有"影响滞后"机制的前移回归模型预测方法。研究结果:在对福建省的实证分析案例中,上述方法运用效果较好,模型输出的预测数据及所作的驱动机制分析可为该省今后的种植业生产规划、农业土地规划与决策提供参考。研究结论:协整理论与前移回归方法的有机结合,可为区域耕地资源变动预测及驱动机制研究提供一种有效的工具。     

1:10000比例尺土地利用景观指数的粒度效应分析

研究目的:基于鹤峰县1:10000土地利用数据,对土地利用数据的景观指数类型及景观水平的粒度效应进行分析。研究方法:GIS和景观格局分析软件应用。研究结果:在类型水平上,景观指数的粒度效应较明显,随粒度的变粗,景观指数可归为单调下降、不规则变化和基本无变化3类;粒度响应最敏感的景观指数为斑块密度;裸地和水田是对粒度响应最敏感的两种土地覆盖类型。在景观水平上,除斑块密度外,其他景观指数粒度效应不明显,斑块密度和面积加权平均分维数的粒度响应最强烈,丰富度指数则最弱。研究结论:粒度效应与所选粒度的变化范围、数据聚合方式、分析景观类型的多少、比例尺的不同都有很大的关系,更深层次的研究需要考虑更加全面。     

县域农用地生态安全评价体系研究

通过评价农用地生态安全,为农用地的生态管护提供参考,为实现农用地的微观评价奠定基础。采用理论分析与资料论证相结合的方法,从农用地生态安全评价理论入手,以河南省为例,构建了基于县域尺度的19个评价因子层、6个评价因素层、3个评价目标层的农用地生态安全评价指标体系。研究表明:(1)农用地的生态安全评价属基础性、前瞻性研究课题,目前只处于宏观研究阶段;(2)用分层多因素指数和法对农用地生态安全进行评价,其因子层、因素层、目标层都具有空间性,每个层次均可应用。     

土地征收中的社会稳定风险评估——以广州新客站周边土地储备项目二期征地为例

土地征收作为一种重大事项,必须进行社会稳定风险评估。依据风险评估的有关要求,以广州某征地项目为例,介绍了社会稳定风险评估报告的主要内容和程序、方法,风险评估结果表明:新客站征地拆迁项目总体社会稳定风险较小,但部分内容仍然可能诱发风险,因此需制定详细的预案,注意加强对风险的防范。     

优化城乡用地结构与布局的对策研究

通过对某县城乡用地现状进行分析,本文指出该县城乡用地结构和布局存在的问题及成因,并针对所存在的问题提出优化其城乡用地结构和布局的对策和建议。     

广东省土地利用规划四级联动信息化管理体系构建

本文通过分析广东土地利用规划数据库的现状特点以及土地规划管理的信息化现状,提出构建广东省土地利用规划省市县乡四级联动的信息化管理体系的设想,并总结了体系构建的现有基础和预期效益。     

金口河区土地资源优化配置

合理利用有限的土地资源是实现区域可持续发展的重要内容。本文以乐山市金口河区为例,在土地利用现状和存在问题分析的基础上,应用线性规划法,根据土地总面积、人口总量、宏观计划和生态保护等约束条件,建立了土地利用结构优化模型,并对其优化结果进行了分析。研究表明:运用线性规划模型来配置土地资源,能够有效提高分析的科学性与合理性,减少不必要的人为干扰,为当地新一轮土地利用总体规划修编提供科学依据。     

The forest transition: Towards a more comprehensive theoretical framework

Building on the contributions of Mather and others, this paper offers an approach for developing a more comprehensive theory of the forest transition. We argue that long-run changes in forest cover in a country or region cannot be separated from the overall pattern of land use changes. Moreover, this pattern is determined by relative land values; forest cover changes over time as the value of one land use relative to the value of its competing use changes over time. However, the actual values that are used to allocate land may be far from optimal; that is, the presence of market, policy and institutional failures can distort economic and political incentives that can lead to bias in favour of one type of land use over the other, and may ultimately explain why a forest transition may be delayed unnecessarily in some countries and regions.     

The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship in England: Extension or dilution in agri-environment policy?

Agri-environment schemes were introduced in the mid-1980s. Their primary objectives have developed from initially aiming to hold back intensification towards stimulating environmental enhancement. The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) in England represents a third stage in seeking to extend the coverage of schemes across the majority of agricultural land. This aims to influence land use along the whole of the intensive margin. The ELS offers a wide range of options for which farmers are awarded points. Selection of options equivalent to 30 points per ha in lowland areas entitles farmers to a payment of £30 per ha. By September 2007, 4.4 million ha had been entered into the scheme, equivalent to 47% of the agricultural area. From amongst the options on offer, 34% of points were for boundary options, 20% for intensive grass options, 16% for management plans and 13% for options taking arable land out of production. The choice of options varies across the country with a higher proportion of the agricultural area entered in the East. Entry into the scheme is associated with total agricultural area, cereals farming, larger farms, a lower proportion of area in Environmentally Sensitive Area and Countryside Stewardship schemes and grazing livestock numbers. While the ELS has introduced a large number of new entrants into agri-environment schemes, the extent of the environmental impact is uncertain. Given the large number of options available, it is likely that farmers will have chosen options that involve relatively little change and incur limited cost. At the same time, it would be surprising if the environmental gains were of the types most valued within local areas. The ELS approach implies that public goods provided from agricultural land should be paid for irrespective of what would have happened in the absence of the scheme. While this may be a fairer approach, it may also undermine the idea of land stewardship and imply that payments will continue to be required in the long term in order to sustain provision. The ELS does establish a framework within which incentives could be targeted to deliver specific benefits within particular contexts and suggestions are made as to how policy might be developed for this.