Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

文学课教学中的审美人生教育

文学教育是一种审美教育,其终极目标不在于培养审美兴趣与审美能力,而在于培养审美人生观。这与文学自身的特性及文学鉴赏的要求有关。在文学课教学中落实审美人生教育应抓住作品的生命意识,强化情感体验,将审美与育人结合起来。     

Learning across the life cycle: Experimentation and performance among the hollywood studio heads

Guided by notions from the literature on organizational learning, this paper investigates how product line experimentation and organizational performance change across the careers of top managers. Its subjects are the studio heads who ran all the major Hollywood film studios from 1936 to 1965. The study found first, that product line experimentation declines over the course of executive tenures; second, that there is an inverse U‐shaped relationship between top executive tenure and an organization's financial performance; and third, that product line experimentation is more likely to benefit financial performance late in top executives' tenures. These findings are consistent with a three‐stage ‘executive life cycle’. During the early years of their tenures, top managers experiment intensively with their product lines to learn about their business; later on their accumulated knowledge allows them to reduce experimentation and increase performance; finally, in their last years, executives reduce experimentation still further, and performance declines. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Progressive stress accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, progressive stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of a product under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The experiment is performed when each of the components in the mixture follows a general class of distributions which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull, power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. It is assumed that the scale parameter of each component satisfies the inverse power low, the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters under consideration are obtained. A special attention is paid to a mixture of two Rayleigh components. Simulation results are carried out to study the precision of the MLEs and to obtain confidence intervals for the parameters involved.     

建设项目后评价工作程序设计

按照动态控制原理,从实操的角度出发,设计建设项目后评价工作程序框图。针对程序框图中“确定后评价目标及内容”、“制定后评价计划”、“收集实际数据”等后评价工作内容,进行重点讨论。     

Remaining life estimation of used components in consumer products: Life cycle data analysis by Weibull and artificial neural networks

Environmental awareness and legislative pressures have made manufacturers responsible for the take-back and end-of-life treatment of their products. To competitively exploit these products, one option is to incorporate used components in “new” or remanufactured products. However, this option is partly limited by a firm's ability to assess the reliability of used components. A comprehensive two-step approach is proposed. The first stage phase statistically analyzes the behavior of components for reuse. A well-known reliability assessment method, the Weibull analysis, is applied to the time-to-failure data to assess the mean life of components. In the second phase, the degradation and condition monitoring data are analyzed by developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The advantages of this approach over traditional approaches employing multiple regression analysis are highlighted with empirical data from a consumer product. Finally, the Weibull analysis and the ANN model are then integrated to assess the remaining useful life of components for reuse. This is a critical advance in sustainable management of supply chains since it allows for a better understanding of not only service requirements of product, but the remaining life in a product and hence its suitability for reuse or remanufacture. Future work should assess: (1) reduction in downtime of process equipment through the implementation of this technique as a means to better manage preventative maintenance; (2) reduce field failure of remanufactured product; (3) selling-service strategy through implementation of the proposed methodology.     

Bayesian life test planning for the Weibull distribution with given shape parameter

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with Type II censored data from a Weibull distribution, when the Weibull shape parameter is given. We use conjugate prior distributions and criteria based on estimating a quantile of interest of the lifetime distribution. One criterion is based on a precision factor for a credibility interval for a distribution quantile and the other is based on the length of the credibility interval. We provide simple closed form expressions for the relationship between the needed number of failures and the precision criteria. Examples are used to illustrate the results.Received: October 2002 / Revised: March 2004     

胶东地区非物质文化遗产的保护与利用

非物质文化遗产的保护与利用一直都是大家关注的热门话题。不少学者专家提出了很多保护民间传统文化遗产的方法措施。提出非物质文化遗产的概念，然后介绍胶东地区非物质文化遗产的主要内容，最后针对该地区的实际情况提出适合胶东非物质文化遗产保护和开发的出路一与休闲旅游市场开发相结合。     

农村剩余劳动力转移的理论、现状与政策建议

文章在论述农村剩余劳动力转移相关理论的基础上,阐述了我国农村剩余劳动力转移的现状,并提出相关的政策建议,倡导城镇化及发展劳动密集的第三产业,为农村剩余劳动力转移提供就业岗位。     

德日刑法中的遗弃犯罪及对我国刑法的启示——从一则案例谈起

我国刑法中的遗弃罪之本质在于对公民在家庭中受扶养权利的侵犯，行为人和被害人必须是同一家庭的成员。对于司法实践中发生的非家庭成员之间的严重遗弃行为因无明文规定而无法予以惩治，刑法法益保护之机能也就因此不能实现。有必要借鉴德日刑法相关立法，以完善我国刑法中关于遗弃罪的规定。