社会事业与公共财政

加快发展社会事业、全面改善人民生活是实现我国社会经济协调发展的必然要求,也是人民对全面建设小康社会、构建社会主义和谐社会新的期待。就性质而言,社会事业与公共财政具有天然的一致性。要想促进社会事业健康快速发展,则必须有公共财政的大力支持与推动。为使公共财政对社会事业的支持效益最大化,推动效果科学化,势必通过探赜社会事业的科学内涵与了解其在我国的认知实践历程及其区域特征,从而厘清其发展逻辑;势必通过正视社会事业对于解决基本民生和构建和谐社会的重要作用与现实意义,从而树立其科学的发展思路与坚定的发展观。只有这样,公共财政才能自觉地担负起其对社会事业的基础性、引导性和保障性责任。     

财务管理在高校基本建设投资中的作用

高等教育改革的重点之一就是加大了对高校建设的投入,使高校在建设选址、建设规模、完善教学功能、提高教学质量方面更加适应社会主义市场经济的需要。由于投入的加大,投资渠道的多样化,促使高校在财务管理方面要改变过去单一渠道模式,探索财务管理科学化的新路子。     

论和谐金融构建与金融审计职能创新

文章立足于国有商业银行股份制改革以来的现状和宏观调控背景,从国家审计的视角,深入分析当前金融审计职能重新定位的重要意义,并深刻阐述了创新和完善现行金融审计职能的具体思路.     

长三角一体化背景下,“金融+科技”政策研究及产业培育路径分析

以长三角一体化发展为契机,区域内各个城市均在积极推进区域金融中心城市建设,着力打造金融聚集区、金融商务区试点,提升金融资源的集聚能力,完善金融服务功能和创新能力,形成特色鲜明、功能互补的金融产业集群。2019年8月,中共合肥市委、合肥市人民政府正式印发了《合肥市推动长三角地区更高质量一体化发展重点工作推进方案》,其中明文提到要"加快金融一体化",依托滨湖金融小镇等一批金融产业项目,积极引进长三角银行、保险、基金、期货、证券公司等金融机构在合肥设立区域分中心,为基础设施建设、科技创新升级、实体经济发展提供支持。立足合肥的科创及人才优势,安徽省级特色小镇——合肥滨湖金融小镇从设立之初,就确立了"金融+科技"的特色产业定位,本文通过案例分析及共词分析研究,梳理出滨湖金融小镇应重点推进"确立人才优先的产业集聚核心逻辑""实现科创中心与金融中心良性互动""释放金融基础设施项目,助推金融科技落地""监管科技与金融科技齐头并进""构建产业生态圈与金融品牌"等五大特色产业培育路径。     

On the statistical differences between binary forecasts and real-world payoffs

We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and “beliefs” (expressed as a specific “event” will happen/will not happen) and real-world continuous payoffs (numerical benefits/harm from an event) and show the effect of their conflation and mischaracterization in the decision-science literature. We also examine the differences under thin and fat tails. The effects: [A] Spuriousness of many psychological results, particularly those documenting that humans overestimate tail probabilities. We quantify such conflations. [B] Being a “good forecaster” in binary space doesn’t lead to having a good actual performance, and vice versa, especially under nonlinearities. A binary forecasting record is likely to be a reverse indicator under some classes of distributions or deeper uncertainty. [C] Machine Learning: Some nonlinear payoff functions, while not lending themselves to verbalistic expressions, are well captured by ML or expressed in option contracts. Fattailedness: The difference is exacerbated in the power law classes of probability distributions.     

In search of beta

Despite its limitations, the CAPM is a popular asset pricing model. However, the estimation of beta in the CAPM is affected by the choice of the returns frequency and firm characteristics. This study undertakes a detailed examination of the evidence for the UK and we find that the differences in beta computed from returns of various frequencies are related to size, liquidity, book-to-market and to some degree, opacity factors. One area where our conclusions might have important implications is in the regulatory use of the CAPM. Our results imply that low frequency beta estimates should, in most cases, be preferred to high frequency beta estimates.     

Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆

Whether finance is beneficial to economic development remains ambiguous. There are studies arguing that finance can facilitate growth and increase stability. However, the recent global financial crisis has led some to argue that finance can decrease stability and lead to more crises. This paper constructs a non-monotonic framework of quantity of finance (measured by leverage) and financial crisis and decomposes leverage into fundamental and excess components. Using cross-country level data, the empirical results confirms that it is excess leverage, rather than fundamental leverage, that results in the increase of probability of financial crisis. Further empirical results show that excess leverage leads to a higher probability of currency crisis, asset price collapse, and banking crisis, while fundamental leverage helps alleviates the crises. This paper reconciles the two contrasting views of the relationship between finance and economic development and provides strong policy implication to pay special attention to the sudden increase of leverage, which is probably excessive, rather than fundamental leverage.     

University fees and the demand for STEM degrees

The 2006 increase in university tuition in the UK was followed by a 3–4% reduction in the proportion of students choosing STEM degrees, due either to a change in the composition of students, or to similar students selecting away from STEM subjects. This article tests the latter hypothesis, estimating the effect of the fees for comparable students using propensity score matching on a rich set of covariates. Results suggest that the change was entirely driven by compositional changes.     

Narcissism,political tenure,financial indicators and the effectiveness of environmental regulation

This article explores the factors that determine the effectiveness of environmental regulation in the United States and Australia. Unlike prior literature, in which lagging performance measures (such as carbon emissions) are used, we use financial data to develop effectiveness scores and identify the determinants of effectiveness, including narcissistic behaviour, tenure of political leaders and financial indicators. Consistent with the emerging literature on environmental finance, we find that abnormal returns are associated with environmental regulation and that effectiveness is adversely affected when narcissistic leaders are in power. Our results remain robust when we control for various event windows and models.     

Does the choice in valuation method matter in the judicial appraisal of private firms?

This paper investigates empirical relations between the redemption values of minority shares and valuation methods used by dissenting parties in the judicial valuation of private firms. We examine a comprehensive data set of Finnish judicial appraisal cases in which the judge decides the valuation of the minority stake in a private firm after learning the valuation estimates put forward by the controlling shareholder(s) and the minority shareholder(s). Rationality in valuation will be achieved if a valuation estimate incorporates all the available information regardless of the valuation method adopted. Conversely, the measurement perspective argues that biases inherent in valuation approaches determine the information content in a valuation estimate. Our statistical analyses suggest that the choices made concerning the valuation method are statistically correlated with the appraisal outcomes. We interpret this as evidence consistent with the measurement perspective.