贸易结构、技术密度与经济增长-一个分析框架及基于中国数据的检验

以往的国际贸易理论都强调,贸易结构在促进经济增长方面起着重要作用。本文通过VAR模型估计了中国的贸易结构与经济增长的关系,结果显示,中国的贸易结构并不显著影响经济增长。     

浅析具象油画语言中“光”的抽象性运用

作为具象油画语言重要语汇要素的“光”,在西方油画艺术中占有特殊的地位,在油画发展的不同阶段传达出不同的“语义”,从崇尚科学真实的“再现之光”到标榜个体意识“内在需要”的“心灵之光”,体现了西方油画由“客观”追求到“主观”彰显的转变轨迹,这种轨迹的梳理使我们认识到油画语言从自发抽象到自觉抽象的演变规律,从某种角度来说,绘画语言的日益抽象化导致了二十世纪西方现代美术的发展与变革.     

Estimating Early Exercise Premiums on Gold and Copper Options Using a Multifactor Model and Density Matched Lattices

We use the standard geometric Brownian motion augmented by jumps to describe the spot underlying and mean regressive models of interest rates and convenience yields as state variables for gold and copper prices. Estimates of parameters of the diffusion processes are obtained by the Kalman filter. Using these estimates, jump parameters are estimated in the second stage by least squares. Early exercise premia on puts and calls are computed using a lattice with probabilities assigned by the density matching technique. We find that while deep in the money options have greater absolute early exercise premiums, the early exercise premium is roughly constant as a percent of option price. Our findings also confirm that gold behaves like an investment asset and copper behaves like a commodity.     

Negative real interest rates

Standard textbook general equilibrium term structure models such as that developed by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross [1985b. “A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Econometrica 53 (2): 385–407], do not accommodate negative real interest rates. Given this, the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross [1985b. “A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Econometrica 53 (2): 385–407] ‘technological uncertainty variable’ is formulated in terms of the Pearson Type IV probability density. The Pearson Type IV encompasses mean-reverting sample paths, time-varying volatility and also allows for negative real interest rates. The Fokker–Planck (i.e. the Chapman–Kolmogorov) equation is then used to determine the conditional moments of the instantaneous real rate of interest. These enable one to determine the mean and variance of the accumulated (i.e. integrated) real rate of interest on a bank (or loan) account when interest accumulates at the instantaneous real rate of interest defined by the Pearson Type IV probability density. A pricing formula for pure discount bonds is also developed. Our empirical analysis of short-dated Treasury bills shows that real interest rates in the UK and the USA are strongly compatible with a general equilibrium term structure model based on the Pearson Type IV probability density.     

On the first hitting time density for a reducible diffusion process

In this paper, we study the classical problem of the first hitting time density to a moving boundary for a diffusion process, which satisfies the Cherkasov condition, and hence, can be reduced to a standard Wiener process. We give two complementary (forward and backward) formulations of this problem and provide semi-analytical solutions for both. By using the method of heat potentials, we show how to reduce these problems to linear Volterra integral equations of the second kind. For small values of t, we solve these equations analytically by using Abel equation approximation; for larger t we solve them numerically. We illustrate our method with representative examples, including Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with both constant and time-dependent coefficients. We provide a comparison with other known methods for finding the hitting density of interest, and argue that our method has considerable advantages and provides additional valuable insights. We also show applications of the problem and our method in various areas of financial mathematics.     

Local corporate misconduct and local initial public offerings

This paper investigates the cost of going public through initial public offerings (IPOs) for firms located in regions with significant fraud density. We find that companies in regions with a high proportion of nearby firms that have committed corporate misconduct have more pronounced underpricing, experience higher post-IPO stock return volatility, and are more likely to withdraw their offerings. Overall, our results show that local corporate misconduct is associated with the pricing of IPOs, and the breach of trust is related to costly IPOs for newcomers.     

全要素生产率构成与中国地区经济差距演进的核密度分析

本文利用随机前沿生产函数模型测算了中国28个省区1985~2007年的全要素生产率,并将其分解为技术进步、技术效率及规模经济性,同时利用核密度估计刻画了中国地区差距的演进机制。研究结果表明,全要素生产率对中国地区差距的影响要大于要素投入,在全要素生产率的组成部分中,技术效率是导致地区经济差距扩大的最主要原因,其次是技术进步的影响,而规模经济性对地区差距的影响非常有限。最后本文给出了相关对策建议。     

Public policy dilemma—gender equality mainstreaming in UK policy formulation

The UK government has committed itself to improving the representation of women in public service and has introduced a number of legislative measures, policies and development programmes to do this. In 2006, the government enacted a regulatory duty, placed on public sector organizations, to mainstream gender equality in policy and service delivery. This article explores the extent to which this duty could promote gender equality and makes some recommendations for improving the representation of women.     

关于平底球形密度瓶质量可靠性分析

应用产品质量可靠性分析方法对目前实验室常用的平底球形密度瓶存在故障及影响因素进行了分析.分析结果表明：平底球形密度瓶在使用过程中存在重复使用性差,质量可靠性低等现象.在此基础上,提出了改进建议.     

Contribution to the study of grouped observation. II. Loss of information caused by grouping of normally distributed observations

Abstract

1. Introduction

(a) Maximum Likelihood.—In a previous paper (THIS JOURNAL, vol. XXXII, 1949, pp. 135–159) the author gave tables of the functions and where ?(x) denotes the normal law of distribution, φ(x) its integral and ?′(x) its first derivative. With the aid of these tables it is practicable to solve the maximum likelihood equations for coarsely grouped normal observations. The procedure was illustrated by examples.