Urban air pollution in China: destination image and risk perceptions

Inbound tourist arrivals into China have been declining in recent years, possibly in response to increasing levels of urban air pollution. To examine Westerners’ contemporary views on China as a travel destination, with a particular focus on air pollution, this research surveyed 600 US and Australian residents. An online panel survey collected data on cognitive and affective destination image, cognitive and affective risk perceptions, intention to visit China and key demographic variables. The findings show that, while China's cognitive image attributes were perceived positively, potential travellers expressed negative views about travel risks in China in general and about air quality in particular. Importantly, feelings towards the risk of air quality had a significant negative impact on destination image as well as intention to visit China. The research contributes to theory by highlighting the importance of considering affective risk perceptions in destination image studies. While some market segments seemed less sensitive to air pollution than others, this paper concludes that unless China proactively addresses the problem of air pollution, for example by seeking to stimulate positive feelings, international arrivals may continue to be compromised.     

Portfolio Optimization under Lower Partial Risk Measures

Portfolio management using lower partial risk (downside risk) measures is attracting more attention of practitioners in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to review important characteristics of these riskmeasures and conduct simulation using four alternative measures, lower semi-variance, lower semi-absolute deviation, first order below targetrisk and conditional value-at-risk.We will show that these risk measures are useful to control downside risk whenthe distribution of assets is non-symmetric. Further, we will propose a computational scheme to resolve the difficultyassociated with solving a large dense linear programming problems resulting from these models. We will demonstrate that this method can in fact solve problems consisting of10⁴ assets and 10⁵ scenarios within a practical amount of CPU time.     

中国经济转型时期商业银行信贷退出问题研究

信贷退出要遵循两个基本原则:一是风险—收益对称原则,二是成本—收益均衡原则。退出成本最低、收益最大、能够较好地掌控风险的时期是信贷退出的最佳时机。判断何时为最佳退出时机必须准确把握行业经济周期、产业结构演进规律、企业生命周期、产品生命周期以及企业信用等级和财务等相关指标的变化。商业银行应该根据信贷进入的行业、区域、企业以及信贷产品制定相应的退出策略。信贷退出路径包括直接退出和间接退出,商业银行应首先考虑间接退出。商业银行信贷退出机制的构建主要包括转换观念,建立行业信贷分析预警退出机制、区域信贷退出机制、客户退出机制、信贷退出激励约束机制等内容。     

死亡率免疫理论及其在长寿风险对冲中的应用

基于死亡率免疫理论探讨保险公司长寿风险的自然对冲问题,研究年龄、性别与保险期限等因素与保单久期和凸性之间的关系,发现保险公司欲达到长寿风险的完全对冲,其寿险业务和年金业务必须达到的最小ρ比例应该等于年金和寿险保单的久期之比,表明保险公司可以通过选择调整寿险和年金业务的比例来对冲长寿风险的影响。     

电费回收的风险与防范措施

电费回收是供电企业经营成果的综合反映,在电力市场的营销过程中,电费的有效回收与管理是电力销售环节中的重要一环,也是电力系统完成生产的最为关键的一个环节,可以说电费回收的好与坏,直接关系到供电企业的经济效益和正常运营,然而用电户拖欠电费的情况也成为目前困扰供电企业经营和发展的重要问题之一,如何有效地回收当期和陈欠电费,降低不良债权,有效防范和化解电费回收风险,是摆在我们面前亟待解决的重要课题。     

中小企业信用风险管理机制探析

制约我国中小企业发展的一个重要因素就是企业内部信用管理水平低,抗风险能力弱。而中小企业出现信用风险的主要原因在于其缺乏必要的信用风险管理机制。要提高中小企业内部信用风险管理水平,必须在设立独立的信用机构的基础上．重点建立和完善前期的资信调查和评估机制、中期的债权保障机制和后期的应收账款管理机制、业绩评价机制。     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与成熟度的影响路径

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中,公众是重要的参与主体,个体间生活环境、知识背景及心理素质的差异性会直接影响稳评结果。公众参与成熟度是公众参与的衡量要素,由能力成熟度和心理成熟度两个方面构成。从能力与心理两个角度设计调查问卷,运用结构方程模型,探究内部影响路径。结果表明,公众参与心理成熟度直接影响能力成熟度,而能力成熟度又通过参与意愿影响着心理成熟度,两者间存在相互影响的关系。政府可以通过开展道德素质教育,改善公众参与动机,以提高公众参与心理成熟度及能力成熟度,最终整体提高公众参与成熟度,保证稳评工作的质量,提升重大水利工程项目决策科学性。     

Young tourists visiting strip clubs and paying for sex

Little is known about young adults’ use of strip clubs and prostitution during their holidays abroad. This study examined this issue with a sample of 1125 Danish tourists between the ages of 16 and 34, and sought data about the frequency with which they paid for sex and attended strip clubs while they were on holiday. The tourists were surveyed at a Bulgarian airport before their return trip home. The incidence of strip-club patronage during holiday was 48% for men and 8% for women. Of the men, 12.5% reported paying for sex during their holiday. Among the men paying for sex, 47% reported having done it for the first time. Among the men who attended strip clubs, 32% reported having done it for the first time. Strip-club patronage and paying for sex were both associated with higher levels of drinking, use of Viagra^®, and with having done the same thing before the holiday. Paying for sex was uniquely associated with non-use of condoms with one or more sexual partners. The results of this study can be interpreted as part of a wider culture of commodified debauchery, which predominates many nightlife resorts.     

Relationship between Perceived Risk,Evaluation, Satisfaction,and Behavioral Intention: A Case of Local-Festival Visitors

This study analyzes the relationship between perceived risk, evaluation, satisfaction, and behavioral intention of tourists attending a local festival. Based on a survey with a sample of 465 respondents attending a local festival in South Korea, a structural equation model (SEM) is proposed that involves festival-related perceived risk, perceptual evaluation, overall satisfaction, and behavioral intention for future attendance at this and other festivals. Firstly, the results show that while risk may lead to a negative perception of a festival, it has no effect on satisfaction or subsequent behavioral intention. Secondly, the results show that direct causality exists between perception, satisfaction and future intention. Thirdly, a demand for diversity in programs determines perceptions of risk, which in turn permits a segmentation of visitors based on these characteristics. The findings of this study contribute to successful planning and marketing strategies to meet the demands of psychologically segmented tourists, especially in festival studies.     

保险公司市场风险经济资本度量研究

经济资本(EC)是在既定期间和置信水平下,公司根据实际承担的风险计算的用以吸收非预期损失的资本额度,目前市场风险是整体经济资本测算体系中最为突出的风险.根据当前保险运营与资产投资的比例特征,同时对资产端与负债端建立市场风险投资模型,采用嵌套随机模拟方法进行两阶段情景生成,度量未来一年内不同风险测度下的市场风险经济资本需求,并对比不同情景数量下的测算稳定性.结果证明:随着内部或外部情景模拟次数的增加,市场风险经济资本测算结果对于极端风险的预测趋于稳定,在内外部情景数量乘积相同时运算时间基本一致.当内外部两阶段情景生成参数差异较大的情形下,应适当增加情景生成数量,以确保对于极端风险预测的准确性.