Information reduction via level crossings in a credit risk model

This paper provides an alternative credit risk model based on information reduction where the market only observes the firm’s asset value when it crosses certain levels, interpreted as changes significant enough for the firm’s management to make a public announcement. For a class of diffusion processes we are able to provide explicit expressions for the firm’s default intensity process and its zero-coupon bond prices.      

电力企业定量风险评估理论方法探讨

电力企业定量风险评估(QRA)是一项涵盖并以安全工程、可靠性工程、风险分析等为基础的综合研究。针对电力工业自身的特点及电力市场化改革的进程,阐述了电力企业QRA的基本思想、流程框架、主要工作内容及基本方法。通过实施QRA,可帮助电力企业全面识别风险,有利于电力企业将风险水平控制在规定水平之内,并针对风险作出正确、合理的决策。     

Strategic responsiveness and Bowman's risk–return paradox

One of the most enduring puzzles in the strategy literature is the negative association between risk and return known as the Bowman paradox. This paper formalizes a model of strategic conduct based on the concept of strategic fit and the heterogeneity of firm strategic capabilities. This model is shown mathematically to yield the negative association of the Bowman paradox. Furthermore, the model makes several other testable predictions. To examine these predictions, simulated data from the model are compared with a large empirical study of 45 industries during 1991–2000. The predictions of the model are consistent with the empirical data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国企业债券市场发展及其对商业银行的影响

本文通过对我国企业债券市场历史和现实的分析提出以下观点:企业债券市场发展有助于商业银行优化资产组合并提升资产收益和流动性,有助于提高商业银行利率定价水平并增强银行体系稳定性.与此同时,企业债券市场发展也使商业银行面临更复杂的信用风险和市场风险.而信用风险和市场风险相互作用和影响,形成风险"放大"效应.基于上述分析,本文认为:商业银行应认清优劣势,从发展战略角度为企业债券业务定位,将企业债券业务作为"入世"后银行业全面竞争的重点之一;商业银行应构建企业债券业务的全面风险管理框架,包括信用风险、市场风险等;商业银行应加强对企业债券创新产品的研究.     

"流程银行"的战略认知及操作风险管理研究

流程银行是当前国际先进银行普遍采用的经营管理模式。本文对流程银行的战略内涵进行了分析，并探讨了流程银行的操作风险管理问题。     

交叉上市、风险分散与溢出效应

本文从非交叉上市公司对交叉上市的市场反应入手，利用对比公司法（MatchedFirmApproach）和事件研究法，实证分析了交叉上市对国内非交叉上市公司带来的影响。分析表明，我国的交叉上市政策增强了国内股票市场的风险分散功能，给国内上市公司带来了正的净溢出效应。     

借鉴美国的监管方式强化我国的金融监管

全球金融市场面临越来越大的风险,监管日益成为重要课题。怎样把金融资源放到最有效的地方去,同时使风险得到最好的控制,这是我国金融体制改革亟待解决的问题。因此,借鉴美国的监管方式,研究我国金融现状,提出完善金融监管的措施,是当前金融体制改革的重点。     

中国银行业经济资本管理的实施路径——从巴塞尔新资本协议获得的启示

经济资本是加强商业银行内部资本管理和风险管理的重要手段.借助经济资本和其他基于风险的管理工具,金融机构可以对其面临的风险进行量化,计算应对这些风险所需的资本及得出根据实际风险进行调整后的收益.对大多数国内银行而言,经济资本的应用已经落后于其他先进国家,本文试图从新资本协议IRB方法的基本思路入手,提出国内银行业在现有条件下提升经济资本计量水平的解决方案.并提出在目前条件下,为实现有效资本管理的最终目标,要尽快开发关键风险参数的量化模型,加强资本管理IT系统建设以及建立资本计划的制定和实施程序.     

Pricing of swaps with default risk

In this paper, I study the valuation of interest rate and currency swaps with default risk under the contingent claim analysis framework. I demonstrate that the traditional approach of pricing swap contracts as exchanges of loans underestimates the value of such contracts to the counterparty with higher credit rating and exaggerates the credit spread required to guard against default risk. Numerical simulations show that the swap rate is not sensitive to counterparty credit rating: for a ten year interest rate swap, a one hundred basis point increase in counterparty bond yield spread results in only about one basis point increase in the swap rate. (JEL G10, G12, G13)This paper is based on Chapter 2 of my Ph.D. dissertation at Yale University. I would like to thank my dissertation committee, Kenneth French, Roger Ibbotson, and Jonathan Ingersoll, Jr. (chairman), for helpful advice and guidance. I would also like to thank Keny Back, Richard Lindsey, N. R. Prabhala, Ming Huang, Marti Subrahmanyam, three anonymous referees and especially Bob Jarrow, the editor, for helpful comments and suggestions. Any errors that remain are solely mine. This paper won the 1996 Trefftzs Award for best student paper from the Western Finance Association.     

Pricing the risks of default

This paper decomposes default risk into timing and recovery risks. The two default components are explicitly priced as if they were traded in the futures market. We develop estimation strategies evaluating recovery risks and then construct implicit prices of contingent securities reflecting purely the timing risk. The models are estimated on monthly data for rates on certificates of deposit offered by institutions in the Savings and Loan Industry, during the 1987–1991 period. Empirical results support market expectations of lower likelihoods of default after 1989.