BLP模型发展及其在产业组织应用综述

产业组织理论问题的实证研究方面,以往简约式方法侧重于分析变量之间的因果关系,难以辨别问题背后的变化机理,从而影响其在政策评估、福利分析中的应用。近年来,随着新实证产业组织研究范式的兴起,结构模型的研究受到国内外学者的广泛关注,并成为新实证产业组织问题研究的前沿方法。BLP模型基于供需关系估计需求和成本参数,估计得到的结构参数更加贴近现实,能够进行均衡及福利分析,合理地评估产业政策,其应用是新实证产业组织研究的焦点问题。通过全面细致地解释BLP模型的原理、方法、发展脉络和研究现状,分析其特点和优势,梳理了BLP模型的应用领域,为产业组织理论问题的实证研究提供方法依据。最后,根据现有研究提出模型不足以及未来的研究方向。     

Animal Welfare and Eggs – Cheap Talk or Money on the Counter?

Our estimate revealed willingness to pay for animal welfare using a panel mixed logit model. We utilise a unique household level panel, combining real purchases with survey data on perceived public and private good attributes of different types of eggs. We estimate willingness to pay for organic eggs controlling for trust in a positive connection between the public good animal welfare and the organic label and the private good food safety also connected to the label. Our results suggest that in the real world, animal welfare plays a minor role in the demand for agricultural products.     

A behavioral urban recreation site choice model

Abstract

A multinomial logit site choice model (MNL) derived by utility maximization and based on reported travel distance and perceived site attributes was estimated for 21 forest‐related urban recreation sites in Chicago. Reported travel distance was the dominant explanatory variable. Perceived site attributes included stimulating/educational, quiet, safe, and forested. When estimated for subsets of the 21 sites, the coefficient for travel distance remained stable in sign, magnitude, and significance, while coefficients for “quiet” and “forested” changed in sign and significance. This supports the application of travel cost models at the urban scale, but suggests that site choice criteria may be sensitive to variables not included in the study.     

The adoption of photovoltaic systems in Wiesbaden,Germany

The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that determine the adoption of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Our case study of the city of Wiesbaden, Germany, is based on a geocoded data set of the grid-connected PV systems set up through 2009. We aim to determine whether the decision to install can be explained by peer effects measured by preexisting installations in the vicinity, i.e. the installed base which is determined for each decision-maker individually. We employ a binary panel logit model and control for spatial variations in buying power and population density. Our analysis reveals a significantly positive influence of previously installed systems located nearby on the decision to install a PV system.     

Occupational choices of working children in Bangladesh

The article looks into the determinants of occupational choices of working children in Bangladesh. Using data from 6668 Bangladeshi working children aged 5 through 14, the article estimates several binary and multinomial logit regressions, separately for boys and girls. The article confirms that most children work in the informal sector where formal sector’s jurisdiction and regulations are absent. Specifically, the article finds that children are least likely to work in the service occupation and are more likely to work in the textile sector. The findings highlight the diversity in the occupational distribution of child workers by gender and show how their individual and family characteristics influence occupational choices. The service sector, which comprises of mostly maids, is a hidden sector. This sector makes children vulnerable to abuse. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers need to come up with effective legislations that would protect the children who work in the ‘hidden informal’ sector.     

Integration of Spatial Correlation into a Combined Travel Model with Hierarchical Levels

Abstract

A combined travel model incorporating spatial correlation is derived from the optimality conditions of a multi-objective optimization framework, in which the trip generation and distribution steps are expressed as hierarchical logit functions. Different forms of spatial correlation are shown to be easily accommodated in combined models using hierarchical logit structures. An extension incorporates spatial correlation into combined models enabling analyses of the impacts of urban development policies on transportation systems as well as the effects of transportation projects on trip generation. A principal finding is that integration of spatial correlation into travel models significantly improves their explanatory power and forecasting abilities; indeed, its exclusion may lead to biased parameter estimates.

RÉSUMÉ Un modèle sur des déplacements mixtes, comprenant une corrélation spatiale, est dérivé des conditions d'optimalité d'un cadre d'optimisation multi-objectifs, dans lesquelles la production du voyage et les mesures de distribution sont exprimées sous forme de fonctions logit hiérarchiques. On démontre que différentes formes de corrélation spatiales sont facilement incorporées dans des modèles mixtes, en permettant l'exécution d'analyses des impacts de politiques de développement urbain sur les systèmes de transport, ainsi que les effets de projets de transport sur la génération d'un déplacement. Une des principales conclusions est que l'intégration d'une corrélation spatiale dans des modèles de déplacement renforce de façon significative leur pouvoir explicatif et leurs capacités de prévision, et son exclusion peut même porter à des estimations paramétriques faussées.

EXTRACTO Un modelo combinado de viajes que incorpora correlación espacial se deriva de las condiciones de optimalidad de un marco de optimización de objetivos múltiples, en el que los pasos de generación y distribución de viajes se expresan como funciones logit jerárquicas. Se muestra que diferentes formas de correlación espacial son fácilmente acomodadas en modelos combinados utilizando estructuras logit jerárquicas. Una extensión incorpora correlación espacial en modelos combinados, permitiendo el análisis del impacto de las políticas de desarrollo urbano sobre los sistemas de transporte, así como de los efectos de los proyectos de transporte sobre la generación de viajes. Un hallazgo importante es que la integración de correlación espacial en modelos de viaje mejora significativamente su poder explicativo y habilidades de pronóstico; de hecho, su exclusión podría producir estimaciones parciales de parámetros.

摘要:

本文从多目标优化系统的最优化条件中得到了一种包含空间相关性的复合旅行交通模型, 其中旅行线路生成和行程规划作为分层logit函数。使用分层logit结构 ' 复

合模型可以轻松提供不同形式的空间相关性 。将复合模型进行拓展 ' 融入空间相

关性后 ' 分析城市发展政策对交通系统的影响以及交通工程对旅行线路的效果成为可能 。一个基本结论是 ' 将空间相关性纳入旅行交通模型能够大大提高模型的解释功能和预测能力 ; 的确 ' 不考虑空间相关性可能会造成参数估计偏差 。     

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Dairy Products With the 100% Canadian Milk Label: A Discrete Choice Experiment

ABSTRACT

A component of the supply management policy governing the Canadian dairy sector is a requirement that all milk and cream sold in Canada be sourced from Canadian producers. Cheese, yogurt, and ice cream, however, can be made using imported milk components. Recently, the Dairy Farmers of Canada launched a 100% Canadian Milk label for products that contain only milk and milk ingredients produced in Canada. Featuring a discrete choice experiment, a Canada-wide survey of dairy consumers is used to elicit their willingness-to-pay for milk and ice cream carrying the 100% Canadian Milk label. The results show that Canadian consumers are willing to pay more for milk and ice cream products that carry the label. Consumer knowledge of the dairy sector affects their willingness to pay for this labeling information. Implications for the use of the Canadian origin label and suggestions for further research are discussed.     

Disability Retirement in a Welfare State

The increasing number of disability pensioners may put a strain on the welfare state. In this paper, we try to assess the effect of financial incentives on disability entrance. A sample of Norwegians on long-term sick leave at the beginning of 1989 is examined as of the end of 1989, and the exit routes are studied in a multinomial logit model. The results indicate that the incentive effects of wages are larger than the disincentive effects of benefits. Furthermore, there is no evidence that having a "subjective" diagnosis affects the probability of becoming a disability pensioner.
JEL Classification : H 55; I 18; J 26     

Consumers’ response to the EU Quality policy allowing for heterogeneous preferences

Using dry-cured ham as an anchor product, consumers’ preferences for EU Quality Certification schemes, region of origin and price have been investigated with conjoint analysis. In order to achieve this aim, a mixed rank-ordered logit which allows for the investigation of heterogeneous preferences and their sources has been estimated. In particular, we have analysed to what extent consumers’ socio-demographic traits affect their price-sensitiveness and whether consumers’ sensory (hedonic) valuations and attitudes towards ham with a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) affect the preferences for specific attributes. Results show that consumers with a low-medium age and income are more price sensitive. Consumers more inclined sensorially towards the regional specialty (with or without PDO) are more likely to purchase this product, and consumers with a more favourable attitude towards PDO ham are also more prone to purchase cured ham with quality certification. Findings also suggest that although the PDO scheme attracts a segment of consumers, the origin by itself is still a more powerful signal of quality, and more specifically the region of origin.     

Environmental Regulations and Plant Exit

A qualitative response model is applied to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. The data set is Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors that have high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the estimated exit probability of regulated establishments is, ceteris paribus, only one third of the exit probability of non-regulated establishments. We also find that the probability to change regulation status from being non-regulated to become regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability had the highest probability to come under environmental regulation.