股利政策市场效应的实证分析

采用超额收益法对深圳和上海股票市场的股利政策进行了实证研究,并探析了不同类型股利的市场效应及投资者行为。实证结果表明,投资者对现金股利的欢迎尤其是对连续现金股利偏好和对不分配股利的漠视效应。     

我国29个省市区利用外国直接投资的空间效应:1985-2007年

本文借鉴近年来兴起的主流空间统计分析方法,对1985-2007年期间我国29个省市区实际利用外资的空间自相关性进行了研究,并测量了空间集聚效应和空间辐射效应。研究结果表明:自1989年以来,我国29个省市区实际利用外资存在空间自相关性;从空间集聚效应来看,空间集聚逐渐从珠三角、长三角向环渤海地区扩散,从东部沿海地区向中部地区扩散,与我国对外开放的格局基本保持一致;从空间辐射效应来看,具有正向辐射效应的高高集聚型省市区日益集聚在东部和中部地区,具有负向辐射效应的低低集聚型省市区日益集聚在西部地区。     

Post-SARS tourist arrival recovery patterns: An analysis based on a catastrophe theory

In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) ravaged many Asian countries. The outbreak of SARS caused a crisis in the tourism industry in many parts of Asia in that year. The purpose of this study is to examine and to compare the post-SARS recovery patterns of inbound arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and USA in Taiwan. Taking the cusp catastrophe model as its foundation, this study proposes a well-grounded approach to understanding the nature of the recovery processes and to explaining the difference between the recovery patterns displayed by arrivals from Japan and those from Hong Kong and USA. Implications regarding tourism promotion policies are drawn from the analysis.     

Involvement theory in constructing bloggers' intention to purchase travel products

Blogs recently have demonstrated their enormous marketing potential, and more and more travel advertisements are being posted in blogs. In light of this observation, this study aims to provide insights into the structural relationship among travel bloggers' involvement level, the advertising effect from blog messages, and travel bloggers' intention to purchase travel products. A travel blogger's purchase intention model was constructed and empirically tested. A total of 900 questionnaires were distributed to identified travel bloggers; 398 valid responses were returned. The data were examined with Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results demonstrated the positive impact resulting from the ad effect as well as the ad effect on purchase intention, which could be verified in travel blog environments. It also indicated that high-involvement travel bloggers are more likely to form favourable impressions with regard to ads in travel blogs. Travel blogs play a positive role in the processing of ad messages; brand management is essential to business marketers since brand attitude is the most influential factor related to the ad effect on purchase intention. Meanwhile, while ad attitude is not significantly effective concerning purchase intention, it remains essential in forming brand attitudes. Several implications for posting advertisements in travel blogs will be discussed and suggested in this paper.     

The Effect of the Alternation in the Ruling Party on Three-Factor Risks and Returns in ETF: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan

This study discusses the effect of alternation in the ruling party in presidential elections on three-factor risks and returns of the three main exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Taiwan, which has an unclearly defined international status and whose citizens have the right to vote directly for the president. We find that after the ruling party has been determined, in the period between Election Day and inauguration day, both the stock market and ETFs show a slight rise in prices. This suggests that most investors are initially optimistic after the election results have been announced. Meanwhile, the reverse book-to-market risk value deteriorates significantly. These results indicate that political uncertainty increases the risk premium of market factors and reverse book-to-market factors for some ETFs.     

Revisiting Border Effect: Evidence from Taobao.com in China

Inherent home bias and trade barriers (particularly local protectionism in China), which are difficult to separate, are two main explanations of border effect. We attempt to solve this problem by analyzing online trade. Different from offline trade, inherent home bias is the only cause of online border effect because local governments are usually unable to restrict online trade. Thus, the difference between the border effect in online and offline trade can be reasonably interpreted as the existence of government protectionism in the offline market. We find a statistically significant difference between online and offline border effects in China, which can be interpreted as strong evidence that policy barriers remain significant and hinder interregional trade.     

风险分析体系在食品安全管理中的应用效果

全球经济一体化发展程度的加深使食品国际贸易得到了迅速发展,传统饮食上的地域限制逐渐被打破,在此发展背景下,影响食品行业的不安全因素也在不断增多。近年来,随着物质生活水平的不断提升,人们对食品安全的关注程度也在不断加深,在确保公平贸易、促进经济平稳高速发展的同时,做到有效规避风险、确保公众健康安全,是对食品安全的基本要求。本文主要分析了食品安全管理中,风险分析体系的作用及应用效果。     

西北地区房地产业关联效益分析及发展策略

基于西北地区2007年、2012年、2017年各省份投入产出数据,以投入产出法为理论依据,分别测算出西北地区房地产业后向关联系数、前向关联系数和环向关联系数。结果表明：西北地区房地产业发展受地区特征影响,经济总效应不够明显,对国民经济的推动作用并不大,整体关联效应由传统矿物产业转变为服务业;依赖程度由金融业、租贷和商务服务业为主的第三产业主导;从带动关系看,对金融业、批发和零售业的关联效益最大,而对第一产业的农林牧渔产品较低,体现了房地产业关联范围广但不全面的特点。基于研究结果提出规避房地产业金融风险、转变产业发展模式、完善各项房地产业制度体系、创新产业模式、制定因地制宜的调控政策等对策建议。     

数字经济对水资源利用效率的影响——以黄河流域73个地级市为例

为探究黄河流域数字经济与水资源利用效率之间的内在关联,基于2011—2019年黄河流域73个地级市数据,利用超效率SBM模型测算各城市水资源利用效率。运用个体固定效应和中介效应模型,实证分析数字经济对黄河流域水资源利用效率的影响及作用机制。研究表明：数字经济发展能够显著提升黄河流域水资源利用效率,整体上呈现倒“U”型非线性影响关系;绿色技术创新在数字经济提升黄河流域水资源利用效率过程中发挥中介作用。据此,建议应适度发展数字经济,推动数字化和绿色化协同发展。     

目标价格对新疆地方棉区棉花规模的调控效应研究

[目的]2014年起国家在新疆实施棉花目标价格试点工作,标志着新疆棉花价格正式由政府指导价时代进入市场主导时代。目标价格改革试点是完善农产品价格形成机制的一个重要举措,属于国家调控政策范畴,研究国家棉花目标价格政策对新疆棉区棉花种植规模的调控效应,对促进新疆棉花产业发展、保障国家棉花安全具有重要的意义。[方法]该研究选用新疆棉花种植面积和价格的多年时序数据,采用格兰杰因果关系检验模型和棉花价格敏感度系数,从定性与定量分析新疆棉花价格与种植规模之间关系入手,深入探讨目标价格对全疆棉区整体及各个地州棉花种植规模的调控效应。[结果]棉花价格对棉花种植规模具有滞后性影响,且对不同区域棉花种植规模的影响存在显著差异;适度的目标价格水平在一定程度上实现了调减新疆棉花种植规模、促进棉花生产向优势产区集聚、优化棉花类型结构的目标。基于此,提出新疆棉花生产发展的政策建议。[结论]目标价格政策对新疆地方棉区棉花规模调控效应显著。