How do European banks portray the effect of policy interest rates and prudential behavior on profitability?

European policy interest rates have been low and trending downwards for almost a decade now and expectations do not seem to change. Hence, in such an environment, this paper investigates whether and how banks’ prudential behavior has influenced profitability across the European banking sector from 1999 to 2015. Using a dynamic panel model, we clearly find that banks’ financial resilience, proxied by the asymmetric Z-score and two financial ratios, affects profits: more cautious banks record higher profits. This result is confirmed by the two overall measures of profitability, namely the Return on Average Assets and Equity, but not for the Net Interest Margins. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that monetary policy's main instrument adversely affects bank income. Nevertheless, when policy interest rates are particularly low, the effect on Net Interest Margin is still positive, while the effect on the overall profitability becomes negative. These results induce that European banks succeed in increasing their profitability despite a compression of their net interest income.     

Modeling exposure to losses on automobile leases

We present an integrated statistical model for assessing risk and projecting financial losses on automobile leases. The model employs nonstationary Markovian state transitions for active leases and hierarchical logistic and regression equations for different outcomes on termination. The model reveals that lower residual risks may partially offset higher credit risk for customers whose credit scores predict higher risk of default. It also reveals a risk profile that differs through time from other secured credits such as mortgages. A three-year follow-up of forecasts versus outcomes for 39,500 leasing contracts shows that the model predicted rates of repossession better than standard roll-rate models with stationary transition probabilities. It displayed similar accuracy in predicting unscheduled terminations and insurance settlements.      

论大学新生的心理健康问题

心理健康是培养高素质人才的必要条件和要求,而大学新生的心理正处于由不适应向适应的转变时期,他们的心理素质还不够成熟,不够完善,在这个关键时期必须加强心理素质的培养。本文从大学新生心理健康现状分析入手,分析了影响大学新生心理健康的因素,再对预防心理健康问题作了探析,提出了预防、解决方案,以期为学校思想政治教育、心理健康教育及有针对性地进行心理咨询与辅导等工作提供参考依据。     

United States oil and gas stock returns with multi-factor pricing models: 2008–2018

International oil demand is met by large government-owned producers, with remaining production divided between publicly traded Majors and Independents. This study compares publicly traded oil producer equity returns traded on the NYSE for the Majors and Independent US oil producers. Individual producer returns were related to equity and oil returns. Equity market risk is lower for large Majors and higher for smaller Independent rivals. Oil producers’ risk premiums associated with oil are smaller for large Majors and larger for smaller Independents. Natural gas returns generally do not affect producer returns. Major returns are inversely while smaller Independent returns are positively related to the size effect. Major oil producer returns are positively related to the value effect and negatively related to momentum.