Valuation by Simulation of Contingent Claims with Multiple Early Exercise Opportunities

This paper introduces the application of Monte Carlo simulation technology to the valuation of securities that contain many (buying or selling) rights, but for which a limited number can be exercised per period, and penalties if a minimum quantity is not exercised before maturity. These securities combine the characteristics of American options, with the additional constraint that only a few rights can be exercised per period and therefore their price depends also on the number of living rights (i.e., American-Asian-style payoffs), and forward securities. These securities give flexibility-of-delivery options and are common in energy markets (e.g., take-or-pay or swing options) and as real options (e.g., the development of a mine). First, we derive a series of properties for the price and the optimal exercise frontier of these securities. Second, we price them by simulation, extending the Ibáñez and Zapatero (2004) method to this problem.     

实物期权评价方法及波动率全周期估算研究

在不确定性投资中,实物期权评价方法充分考虑了项目投资中的管理灵活性、不确定性和不可逆性,因而更能准确地评估项目投资的价值。项目建设期的现金流出和经营期可能出现的亏损使得现行波动率估算方法难以应用于项目评价中。在分析波动率性质的基础上,以净现值法为基础,应用蒙特卡洛原理,提出了在现金流随机变动条件下实物期权模型中基于全周期的波动率参数估算方法,该方法适用于项目投资且易于操作。     

什么样的评论更可信？心理模拟视角下在线评论类型对感知在线评论可信性的影响研究

在线评论及其可信性已成为消费者网购决策重要的依据。以往研究多关注在线评论自身属性对在线评论可信性的影响,忽视了消费者心理认知的作用。文章从消费者心理角度,结合爬虫数据和实验研究发现,消费者对搜索品属性型评论感知可信性更高,对体验品体验型评论感知可信性更高;心理模拟在感知在线评论可信性影响过程中具有中介作用,搜索品属性型评论通过结果模拟引发更高的感知评论可信性,体验品体验型评论则通过过程模拟引发更高的感知评论可信性。研究结论对网络购物平台及商家制定更精准的营销策略和评论管理机制有帮助。     

经济管理仿真实验系统开发分析——基于模块化与柔性化设计

国内高校经济管理实验室普遍存在资源配置缺乏系统规划、资源重置度高、资源共享度差、仪器设备及软件利用率低、科研潜力无从挖掘、实验活动偏离实际等问题。针对这些问题并结合国内外高校经济管理实验室运作的成功典范建立的仿真实验系统平台,可以优化和改造传统的经济管理实验室运作模式,即通过模块化、柔性化设计来增进经济管理类实验室系统的功能效用。     

略论如何在会计模拟实验教学中运用合作学习教学方法

本文针对会计模拟实验课程的特点,提出如何在会计模拟实验教学中运用合作学习教学方法,培养学生合作精神和团体意识,提高学生的综合能力.     

工程管理综合实验研究及实验室设计与建设

工程管理专业培养目标要求学生具备很强的实践能力,针对目前国内各高校缺乏工程管理综合实验平台的现状,我们设计了工程管理综合实验内容及综合实验室建设方案。设计实验内容是在建立强大的案例库基础上,使用先进的项目管理沙盘、项目管理软件、招投标模拟系统、工程造价软件等硬件及软件实验设施,最终可实现两大类九项实践训练课程,基本上覆盖了工程管理专业的主干课程。为教师的授课提供有利的途径和手段,使学生充分理解并贯通课程内容。     

Governing collaborative activity: interdependence and the impact of coordination and exploration

We examine the performance implications of selecting alternate modes of governance in interorganizational alliance relationships. While managers can choose from a range of modes to govern alliances, prior empirical evidence offers limited guidance on the performance impact of this choice. We use an agent‐based simulation of interfirm decision making to complement empirical studies in this area. Our results point to a complex interplay between interdependencies, governance structures, and firms' search capabilities. Different patterns of interdependence create varying needs with respect to coordination and exploration, while at the same time different governance modes, coupled with organizational search capabilities, supply varying degrees of these factors. Firm performance in an alliance relationship improves when the needs and supplies of coordination and exploration are matched. We find situations in which stronger organizational search capabilities can backfire, leading to lower exploration within the alliance relationship, and hence to lower firm performance. Moreover, we show that for higher levels of interdependence, coordination can become more critical for firm performance than exploration: unless it is tied to coordination, exploration can be ineffective in alliance settings. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

国际工程承包市场竞争环境分析方法

后金融危机下国际工程承包市场开始复苏,国际承包商之间的竞争正越演越烈。为了深入分析国际工程承包市场竞争环境,构建了基于市场结构的指标体系,结合蒙特卡洛模拟分析市场竞争态势。比较传统分析结果与模拟分析结果发现,模拟分析结果为判断国际工程承包市场竞争态势提供了更多的信息。趋势图分析指出了市场稳定与否及其外部影响因素,敏感性分析识别出对市场竞争环境影响较大的承包商,获得了承包商基于市场占有率的相关系数矩阵,并据此提出了国际承包商之间的竞合关系模型。应用实例验证了提出方法的有效性,具有较好的实用价值。     

Estimation strategies for the regression coefficient parameter matrix in multivariate multiple regression

We consider improved estimation strategies for the parameter matrix in multivariate multiple regression under a general and natural linear constraint. In the context of two competing models where one model includes all predictors and the other restricts variable coefficients to a candidate linear subspace based on prior information, there is a need of combining two estimation techniques in an optimal way. In this scenario, we suggest some shrinkage estimators for the targeted parameter matrix. Also, we examine the relative performances of the suggested estimators in the direction of the subspace and candidate subspace restricted type estimators. We develop a large sample theory for the estimators including derivation of asymptotic bias and asymptotic distributional risk of the suggested estimators. Furthermore, we conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to appraise the relative performance of the suggested estimators with the classical estimators. The methods are also applied on a real data set for illustrative purposes.