基于DEA模型的河南省物流产业效率评价

以物流业投资的固定资产、物流业从业人数作为投入指标,以物流业的增加值、货物周转量作为产出指标,构建了河南省物流产业效率评价指标体系,运用DEA效率评价模型对河南2004-2012年物流系统的相对有效性、技术有效性、规模效益有效性和超效率进行分析,结果显示,河南物流投入、产出总体有效性为44%,在此结果基础上分析了物流产业效率制约因素,并提出了物流产业效率提升要点及提升策略。     

“十五”期间中部六省流通竞争力的比较分析——以湖南省的视角

采用因子分析法全面分析了"十五"期间中部地区流通产业竞争力的发展状况,指出流通产业竞争力指标主要可以分解为流通产业规模水平因子、流通基础设施因子和流通人力资本因子;分析了"十五"期间中部各省份的流通产业竞争力的变动状况,从湖南省的视角出发,深入分析了影响湖南省流通产业竞争力的各项因素,提出了一些有针对性的对策。     

Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey

Dynamic factor models have been the main “big data” tool used by empirical macroeconomists during the last 30 years. In this context, Kalman filter and smoothing (KFS) procedures can cope with missing data, mixed frequency data, time-varying parameters, non-linearities, non-stationarity, and many other characteristics often observed in real systems of economic variables. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a comprehensive updated summary of the literature on latent common factors extracted using KFS procedures in the context of dynamic factor models, pointing out their potential limitations. Signal extraction and parameter estimation issues are separately analyzed. Identification issues are also tackled in both stationary and non-stationary models. Finally, empirical applications are surveyed in both cases. This survey is relevant to researchers and practitioners interested not only in the theory of KFS procedures for factor extraction in dynamic factor models but also in their empirical application in macroeconomics and finance.     

The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve

The term structure of real yields and expected inflation are two unobserved components of the nominal yield curve. The primary objectives of this study are to decompose nominal yields into their expected real yield and inflation components and to examine their behaviour using state-space and regime-switching frameworks. The dynamic yield-curve models capture three well-known latent factors – level, slope, and curvature – that accurately aggregate the information for the nominal yields and the expected real and inflation components for all maturities. The nominal yield curve is found to increase slightly with a slope of about 120 basis points, while the real yield curve slopes upward by about 20 basis points, and the expected inflation curve is virtually flat at slightly above 2 per cent. The regime-switching estimations reveal that the nominal yield, real yield and expected inflation curves have shifted down significantly since 1999.     

基于要素禀赋的上海金融外包行业发展可行性研究

大量的海内外实践表明,发展金融外包对于一个国家、一座城市具有重要意义和强大吸引力.本文先从理论层面上,构建了"基于要素禀赋的外包行业发展可行性评价体系",之后通过问卷调研的方法,结合对应分析,研究了各要素禀赋对于上海发展金融外包的关联度,并对其匹配情况进行分析.实证研究表明:上海大力发展金融外包具有可行性.     

3M公司汽车市场新产品扩散模型分析

基于BASS模型,对3M公司历年来汽车相关产品销售历史数据利用非线性最小二乘法拟合扩散系数和创新系数。通过对扩散系数和创新系数的分布特性的研究,发现3M公司不同类别新产品有各自类似的市场扩散特性。     

铁路危险品运输过程中不安全因素的识别与控制

通过对铁路危险品运输过程的分析,从人、机、货、环境、管理五个方面对不安全因素进行了识别。从工程技术、教育、强制三个方面提出了控制措施,提出构建铁路危险品运输监测系统框架,为铁路危险品的安全运输提供了依据。     

技术中介市场作用机制及其声誉的模型探讨

随着我国技术市场的不断完善和发展,技术中介的作用日益凸现。本文从技术中介的重要作用出发,探讨了客户在选择技术中介时中介机构声誉的重要性、影响技术中介声誉的因素以及技术中介与客户相互作用的机制。     

土质边坡分析中的极限平衡法与有限元强度折减法的研究

介绍边坡分析的极限平衡法与有限元强度折减法原理,比较两者优缺点。对均质土坡分别采用有限元强度折减法与极限平衡法进行计算,得到相应的安全系数和潜在破坏面,得到两种方法所得安全系数和破坏面一致的结论,应用有限元强度折减法计算是合理可行的。     

影响农民专业合作社融资因素分析——基于海南屯昌县的问卷调查

农民专业合作社在促进农民增收,农村建设和农业经济发展方面发挥了重要的作用。但是融资难问题已经严重制约了农民专业合作社的发展壮大,本文通过对海南屯昌县的农民专业合作社进行实地调查,分析合作社融资难的原因,提出解决问题的对策。