中国半导体产业链GVC嵌入度与全要素生产率

构建双向固定效应模型,检验半导体产业链GVC嵌入度对全要素生产率的影响及作用机制。结果显示：半导体产业链GVC嵌入度与全要素生产率具有先升后降的倒U形关系,在这两者之间,进口中间品质量起部分中介作用,市场竞争具有显著调节作用,且半导体产业链GVC嵌入度与全要素生产率的非线性关系在不同环节存在差异。鉴于此,应抓住GVC重构和区域化机会,拓宽进口中间品合作渠道,改善市场竞争环境,提升半导体产业链全要素生产率。     

Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy

Some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns, while others appear to be isolated to financial markets. We identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macro‐economic outcomes. The stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection. Our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with NBER recessions. An exogenous deterioration in our financial conditions index has strong negative effects in economic activity, and negative amplification effects on inflation in the stress regime. These results are obtained with a novel factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model with smooth‐transition regimes (FASTVAR).     

Model-driven statistical arbitrage on LETF option markets

In this paper, we study the statistical properties of the moneyness scaling transformation, which adjusts the moneyness coordinate of the implied volatility smile in an attempt to remove the discrepancy between the IV smiles for levered and unlevered ETF options. We construct bootstrap uniform confidence bands which indicate that the implied volatility smiles are statistically different after moneyness scaling has been performed. An empirical application shows that there are trading opportunities possible on the LETF market. A statistical arbitrage type strategy based on a dynamic semiparametric factor model is presented. This strategy presents a statistical decision algorithm which generates trade recommendations based on comparison of model and observed LETF implied volatility surface. It is shown to generate positive returns with a high probability. Extensive econometric analysis of the LETF implied volatility process is performed including out-of-sample forecasting based on a semiparametric factor model and a uniform confidence bands' study. These provide new insights into the latent dynamics of the implied volatility surface. We also incorporate Heston stochastic volatility into the moneyness scaling method for better tractability of the model.     

Human approach in the quality management system of manufacturing SMEs in Mexico Theoretical review and proposal of a conceptual model

Currently, globalization and competitiveness exert an enormous pressure on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector in Mexico, for that reason they must be more effective and flexible to meet customer demand. In this article, we reviewed the literature on the subject according to the level of significance of variables like human factor, quality culture, quality management system (QMS) and innovation, considered as key elements of a latent competitive scale as from their exploration and explanation. The main objective of this research is to carry out a critical analysis by relating the importance of the human factor of QMS, through research on socio-emotional, intellectual factors and ethics values for achieving the effectiveness of QMS at all organization levels; it also provides a link between variables of quality culture, value propositions, and innovation. Finally, this work discusses the design of a human factor-based quality model to ensure the value propositions for customer and stakeholders’ satisfaction.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Motivating Factors and Policy Issues

Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) foreign direct investment (FDI) share has persistently averaged 1% of global flows. The location decision and perceptions of investors are therefore instructive for policy making. This article factor analyses a survey of perceptions, operations, and motivations of 758 foreign investors in 10 SSA countries. We find that the provision of transaction cost–reducing information on industries and markets and utility services to investors before and after a firm's FDI decision are significant factors. FDI location decision in SSA is influenced strongly by political economy considerations. Labor and production input variables are not influential.     

跨国零售商海外市场进入模式及其选择

本文认为,并购、特许、合资、有机增长与战略联盟是目前跨国零售商进入海外市场的常用模式,这几种模式具有不同的优势与劣势以及不同的适用条件;跨国零售商海外市场进入模式选择应综合考察东道国环境因素(包括市场因素、经济环境因素、法律政治因素和社会文化因素等)与零售商特定因素(包括零售商规模、零售商专业技能和国际化经验)等。     

The residual market factor,the APT,and mean-variance efficiency

The rapidly increasing volume of both published and unpublished work on the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) of Ross (1976) has given rise to a number of misunderstandings at the interface of theoretical and econometric work. In this article we extend the theoretical structure of our previous work (McElroy and Burmeister, 1985, 1988; Burmeister and McElroy, 1987, 1988) to provide a broad yet rigorous framework both for econometric estimation and for better economic interpretation of new empirical results. We begin with the case where allK factors are observed, and then present the second case ofK−1≡J observed APT factors and one unobserved factor, theresidual market factor introduced in McElroy and Burmeister (1985). The economic interpretations for equivalent specifications of this model are discussed, and we enumerate several immediate payoffs to these specifications. The main new results are concerned with the sometimes intricate relationships among APT models withK factors and APT models withK factors that are constrained to satisfy mean-variance efficiency restrictions. These results are not only of theoretical interest, but more importantly they provide the basis for econometric estimation and testing of nested hypotheses. These econometric issues are discussed in detail.     

International Housing Markets and the U.S. Subprime Crisis

We propose a novel decomposition approach to study the degree of co-movement of international housing markets while distinguishing among different economic drivers. We find that the housing market variability for an average country was mainly driven by the common housing risk premium components during the years leading up to the 2007–08 subprime financial crisis. A decrease in the common housing risk premium was followed by a housing boom and economic expansion in the United States prior to the crisis. Our findings add to the understanding of the role of common risk factors across international housing markets before the crisis.     

牧民生产行为影响因素的实证分析

本文根据对阿勒泰和昌吉牧民的调查,并结合前人研究成果,选取了影响牧民生产行为的7大因素。通过建立logistic二元选择模型,对影响牧民生产行为的因素进行了系统分析。结果表明,生活方式、政策、牧业收入、单位人工草场载畜量对牧民生产行为产生显著性影响,尤其是政策。而年龄、劳动力、牧业收入占家庭总收入比重对其的影响不显著。     

如何看待我国民营上市公司EVA与MVA的反差问题

通过对2001年EVA与MVA反差最大的20家民营企业的统计数据进行了相关分析与因子分析,提出使用第一主成分作为投机炒作的度量,弟二主成分反映了股本与业绩的背离程度,并对2001年EVA与MVA反差最大的20家企业进行分析并排序。