The predictability of security returns with simple technical trading rules

Technical traders base their analysis on the premise that the patterns in market prices are assumed to recur in the future, and thus, these patterns can be used for predictive purposes. This paper uses the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1897 to 1988 to examine the linear and nonlinear predictability of stock market returns with simple technical trading rules. The nonlinear specification of returns are modelled by single layer feedforward networks. The results indicate strong evidence of nonlinear predictability in the stock market returns by using the past buy and sell signals of the moving average rules.     

可再生能源发电开发利用及经营情况实证分析——以江苏省为例

江苏省是能源消耗大省,又是资源小省,能源需求增长压力大,能源自给率不足20%。突破能源瓶颈,实现经济和社会发展主要有两个途径：一是节能降耗,二是增加供应。大力发展可再生能源,不失为江苏经济可持续发展的战略选择。     

宏观投资的影响因素与实证分析

在界定宏观投资的基础上，选择储蓄、价格、利润和利率等影响因素的代表变量，建立固定资产投资的理论模型；以1985－1999年为样本区间，采用SPSS统计分析软件包，对变量数据进行相关性分析和主成分分析，构建我国固定资产投资的回归模型；通过实证分析得出我国固定资产投资各影响因素的结论并给出相应的政策含义。     

基于不对称需求信息的激励机制模型研究

针对由单制造商和单销售商组成的供应链,提出了供应链双方需求信息对称情况下的激励机制模型,并在此基础上建立了供应链双方在需求信息不对称情况下的运作策略模型。制造商通过折扣,运用激励相容机制使销售商诚实申报需求信息,使得供应链利润最大化的同时供应链成员实现双赢。数字试验结果表明:①所提策略是有效的;②该策略不仅能提高制造商利润,而且也能改善销售商的利润。     

货币政策为何及如何关注食品价格

食品价格是通货膨胀压力的灵敏反映指标,且由于食品部门供应价格弹性、存货缓冲能力、需求价格弹性和生产效率相对较低,产品同质化程度相对较高,食品价格的弹性明显高于非食品价格,加之在通货膨胀和经济周期过程中,食品部门具有需求顺周期和供给逆周期的特征,食品价格波动幅度往往远高于非食品价格,存在一定程度的超调。因此,文章建议货币政策应充分关注食品价格,同时适当提高对食品价格波幅的容忍程度。     

From economic stability to social order: The debate about business cycle theory in the 1920s and its relevance for the development of theories of social order by Lowe,Hayek and Eucken∗

Abstract

The concepts of Adolph Lowe, Friedrich A. Hayek and Walter Eucken play an important role in the discussion of an adequate theory of economic and social order. It is noteworthy that at the beginning of their academic careers, these three economists dealt primarily with questions of business cycle theory. As we will show, this is not coincidental, but can be explained by economic history and the history of theory. Furthermore, all three economists agree that establishing a comprehensive social order would provide the basis for economic stability, although each postulates a different relationship between liberty and order.     

我国旅行社行业发展的几个理论问题——对我国旅行社行业制度变迁的考察

简要地回顾和评述了二十多年来我国旅行社行业的发展历程,对一些长期困扰旅行社行业发展的诸如旅游业发展与制度化环境、政府主导与市场主导、“政策失灵”问题,行业垄断还是行业竞争等理论问题提出了独立的见解,并就我国旅行社业的发展趋势与路径选择提出了建设性的意见。     

浅析绩效政策在高校行政管理中的应用

针对目前我国高校绩效评价工作中存在的一些实际问题,提出了在高校建立科学的绩效评价体系,并将其与管理岗位教师考核相结合的策略。指出绩效考核的应用重点应在薪酬和绩效的结合上,在设定薪酬时,应将薪酬分解为固定工资和绩效工资,绩效工资可以通过绩效体现,而对员工进行绩效考核也要表现在薪酬上,同时考核可以按时间、评价主体和考评结果形式等多层次进行。实践证明该方法切实可行,值得推广。     

Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone: an SVAR analysis

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import taxes) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2000Q1-2016Q4), in order to understand how the values can vary according to the public debt level, the pace of economic growth, and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks, the results showed that government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.44, whereas tax multipliers presented negative signs: the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at ?0.11 and ?0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the spending multiplier showed a higher value for countries with lower levels of public debt, during recessions, and in countries with negative output gaps. On the other hand, tax shocks seemed to be recessive in highly indebted countries and those facing positive output gaps.