东亚货币一体化博弈分析

东亚发展中国家与地区如何选择汇率制度一直是个颇有争议的话题。在“欧元”单一货币区成功实施的背景下,寻求货币一体化便成为东亚各国与地区关注的焦点。实际上,东亚货币一体化就是各参与方根据其参与的成本和收益,权衡利弊得失的决策博弈过程,该过程具有两阶段博弈的特征。     

From economic stability to social order: The debate about business cycle theory in the 1920s and its relevance for the development of theories of social order by Lowe,Hayek and Eucken∗

Abstract

The concepts of Adolph Lowe, Friedrich A. Hayek and Walter Eucken play an important role in the discussion of an adequate theory of economic and social order. It is noteworthy that at the beginning of their academic careers, these three economists dealt primarily with questions of business cycle theory. As we will show, this is not coincidental, but can be explained by economic history and the history of theory. Furthermore, all three economists agree that establishing a comprehensive social order would provide the basis for economic stability, although each postulates a different relationship between liberty and order.     

公司融资结构调整、部门异质性与中国信贷渠道的存在性

在理论总结与对中国经济环境分析的基础上,文章从两个新的视角对中国货币政策信贷渠道进行了重新探讨:一是特定货币政策环境下公司融资结构调整;二是产权异质性条件下的信贷配给。研究结果表明,中国的独立信贷渠道的确存在,然而,其作用机制并非是基于像上市公司这样的企业的微观融资结构调整效应,而是经济中国有与非国有并存的产权异质性所导致的信贷配给效应。对于上市公司,独立信贷渠道的作用是微弱的,这一结果对于公司行业及规模是稳健的。实证结果同时显示,与通常的预期不同,在获取银行信贷方面处于相对优势地位的国有投资受银行信贷变化影响更大。     

新“国五条”的两种可能结果：一个基于理性预期的分析——以天津市为例

2013年2月20日,国务院常务会议决定加强房地产市场调控力度,出台了新“国五条”。新“国五条“继承了中央紧缩的房地产市场调控思路,进一步打压房价,限制二手房交易并鼓励保障性住房建设,尤其是其规定的对个人二手房销售者按照销售收入征收20％的个税更是引起国内一片争论,许多二手房持有者急于在新政策实行前出手自己的房屋。事实上,新“国五条”是一把双刃剑,在取得房价可以预期的立竿见影的下跌的同时,为未来的房地产市场甚至中国经济埋下了隐患,这些隐患究竟是什么,如何做可以避免这些隐患,从这些问题出发,提出了一些建议,有一定的参考价值。     

中国创新政策的演进——基于扎根理论

将中国创新政策的发展历程分为3个阶段,即1978—1994年、1995—2005年和2006年以后。运用扎根理论分析了各阶段的创新政策,研究了中国创新政策的演进。结果显示:中国创新政策的范式并未发生根本变化;人才和环境营造一直是中国创新政策的重点;科技成果转化政策的加强使得科技与经济社会的联系越来越紧密;政府在创新中的作用发生了根本性变化。     

Monetary and banking policy transmission through interest rates: an empirical application to the USA,Canada, the UK and the Eurozone

The main purpose of this paper is an examination of the pass‐through interest rate transmission from the wholesale rates (central bank and/or money market rates) to the retail rates (deposit and lending rates) of the banking system. Knowledge of the transmission substantially helps us to calculate the pass‐through interest rate margin or mark‐up in the banking systems under examination (USA, Canada, the UK and the Eurozone). The selection of the wholesale interest rate is also an important part of this pass‐through transmission framework because it is related to the money supply process and therefore the central bank's policy capabilities. In the empirical part, a Johansen (1988) cointegration based error‐correction procedure (ECM‐GE) is implemented for the wholesale interest rate selection. Then an LSE–Hendry general‐to‐specific model (GETS) is applied, for the revelation of the banking sector pass‐through interest rate behaviour. In the empirical part, on the issue of the wholesale interest rate selection, the USA and the Eurozone seem to favour the Money Market rate while the UK and Canada favour the central bank policy rate. The results indicate two types of interest rate pass‐through behaviour, with market structure implication – namely, the US and UK banking systems contrasted with Canada–Eurozone.     

中国民营企业对外投资30年

当前,民营经济已经发展成为经济舞台上一股活跃而不可忽视的力量。民营经济"走出去"取得的巨大进展,蕴含着几代民营企业家的奋斗历程,也伴随着30年来国际国内环境的深刻变革。随着实力的壮大,越来越多的民营企业适应经济全球化潮流,对外投资势头越来越猛,取得了积极进展。与此同时,也给新时期支持民营企业参与国际竞争的政策环境提出了新要求。     

The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

Dilemmas of Social Reform (Poverty and Community Action in the United States)

During the last thirty years, one of the most remarkable trends in Western Europe and North America has been the increase in women’s labor force participation rates. However, there has been considerable variation among countries; rates in Southern European countries are markedly lower than in other regions. Standard welfare state regime typology is unable to explain this outcome. This paper tackles the issue by examining the institutional determinants of employment decisions in Spain. Family policies and tax policies greatly influence the labor force participation of women by either promoting or discouraging the employment of mothers. However, these policies do not affect women in the same way. Of particular importance is whether women can claim benefits on the basis of their citizenship, or whether their status as wives or mothers is the link to benefits. By pursuing this line of analysis, the paper explains the low female labor force participation in Spain, providing an important contribution to the welfare state regime literature.