资本流动、货币供给与价格总水平--一个理论分析框架

在国际收支的货币主义理论背景下，资本流动与货币供应量之间是一个循环反复的作用过程，二者的相互作用在内部经济与外部经济取得新的均衡时结束。借助IS—LM—BP模型可以将这种复杂的循环作用过程以及作用结果通过图形进行演绎。固定汇率制度下资本不完全流动时的IS—LM—BP模型与开放经济下的AS—AD模型分析表明，在固定汇率制度下，资本流出对国内货币供应量有紧缩效应，并使价格总水平下降；相反，资本流入对国内货币供应量有扩张效应．使价格总水平上升。     

A Semiparametric Method for Valuing Residential Locations: Application to Automated Valuation

This paper is motivated by automated valuation systems, which would benefit from an ability to estimate spatial variation in location value. It develops theory for the local regression model (LRM), a semiparametric approach to estimating a location value surface. There are two parts to the LRM: (1) an ordinary least square (OLS) model to hold constant for interior square footage, land area, bathrooms, and other structural characteristics; and (2) a non-parametric smoother (local polynomial regression, LPR) which calculates location value as a function of latitude and longitude. Several methods are used to consistently estimate both parts of the model. The LRM was fit to geocoded hedonic sales data for six towns in the suburbs of Boston, MA. The estimates yield substantial, significant and plausible spatial patterns in location values. Using the LRM as an exploratory tool, local peaks and valleys in location value identified by the model are close to points identified by the tax assessor, and they are shown to add to the explanatory power of an OLS model. Out-of-sample MSE shows that the LRM with a first-degree polynomial (local linear smoothing) is somewhat better than polynomials of degree zero or degree two. Future applications might use degree zero (the well-known NW estimator) because this is available in popular commercial software. The optimized LRM reduces MSE from the OLS model by between 5 percent and 11 percent while adding information on statistically significant variations in location value.     

Disclosure of Private Information and Reduction of Uncertainty: Environmental Liabilities in the Chemical Industry

We investigate the potential uncertainty-reducing role of accounting information in the context of contingent Superfund liability valuation. We first develop theoretical arguments for the way reduction of uncertainty regarding these contingent liabilities is expected to affect security prices. Empirical proxies are developed for two types of uncertainty surrounding contingent Superfund liabilities: site uncertainty and allocation uncertainty. In a valuation framework, we then investigate whether financial statement disclosures and accruals reduce uncertainty and thereby affect security valuation. Specifically, we analyze the interaction of private information contained in firm disclosures and accruals with inherent uncertainty surrounding contingent Superfund liabilities. Results suggest that in a regulatory environment allowing substantial reporting discretion, firm-provided financial statement information affects valuation of contingent Superfund liabilities by reducing uncertainty. Further, we find that information revealed through accruals versus disclosures is differentially effective at reducing site and allocation uncertainty.     

货币政策效果非对称性及"阀值效应"分析

本文基于1992年1季度至2005年2季度数据，运用LM检验和t检验，研究我国货币政策的非对称性以及“阀值效应”，得出我国货币政策的“阀值”在-0．08-0．05之间。货币政策的非对称性和“阀值”的存在是由于微观信贷市场上的信贷配给导致的。“阀值”和“阀值效应”的存在反映了信贷配给的强弱程度，“阀值”可以用作度量信贷配给程度的指标，它间接地反映了信贷市场的完善程度。     

小国得益于货币联盟

本文回顾了适用于严格固定货币汇率的技术方法，并从对货币联盟通过货币汇率严格固定所获得的利益与付出的代价的研究中给出证明。事实上，丧失货币主权而付出的代价由于有效资本市场和劳动力市场的形成而降低了。本文还讨论了一个被忽略的实行严格货币固定的好处，即小国因此而事受到更好的货币政策。完善的货币政策得以形成是因为小国将其货币主权交托于大型机构（大国央行或是货币联盟央行）后，其货币政策将免受政治因素的影响；另外部分原因在于大型机构拥有更多的金融和人力资源去设计和执行最佳的货币政策。由于在联盟内部实行区内贸易和资本流动，因此即便太央行的货币政策出错。对于它所服务的成员国来说，造成的影响也较小。     

资源类上市公司的价值评估方法探讨

现有“利润加储量”的评估方法应用于资源类公司仍在某些环节出现悖论。本文认为，资源类上市公司的价值构成应包括矿权重估溢价、正常开采投资收益及个别公司的超额利润。其中，采矿权重估溢价的潜在收益应是在矿权未市场化之前的资源类企业获得的特有收益，但其收益期和相应的折现期也因矿权的逐步市场化而受到采矿权有效期的限制。本文用简单模型估算了主要资源类上市公司的基本价值。     

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm‐quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricing‐error and return‐prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.     

Market Valuation of Research and Development Spending under Canadian GAAP*

Section 3450 of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA) Handbook requires Canadian firms to capitalize development costs that meet certain criteria and to expense those that relate to research. International Accounting Standard (IAS) No. 38 favours a similar approach. In the United States, Statement of Financial Accounting Standard (SFAS) No. 2 recommends the immediate expensing of all research and development (R&D) spending. The only exception is SFAS No. 86, which requires software development costs to be capitalized when a product successfully passes a technological feasibility test. Consequently, the Canadian financial disclosure regime provides a rich setting for testing the market valuation of capitalized R&D. Our primary research question asks whether capitalized R&D provides useful information to market participants investing in Canadian firms. We use price‐level and return models to assess the value relevance of capitalized R&D disclosed in the financial statements under Canadian GAAP. In line with expectations, using a price‐level model, we find that capitalized R&D and R&D expense as disclosed in the financial statements provide information that is value relevant to market participants. However, we find that R&D capitalized during the year helps explain returns while R&D expense does not. Thus we conclude that the application of section 3450 of the CICA Handbook produces value‐relevant information.     

浅谈我国企业工资制度

工资分配是企业人力资源管理的重要环节，是激励员工积极性、创造性，实现企业战略目标的经济杠杆。因此，对企业来说工资制度制定的正确、合理与否就显得非常重要，对企业的经营、发展具有深远的意义。工资制度改革必须加强宏观调控，确保每种生产要素的贡献与其报酬对称；必须贯彻按劳分配原则，确保劳动贡献与劳动报酬对称。     

Hot Money and Quantitative Easing: The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on the Chinese Economy

We develop a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FA‐VAR) model to estimate the effects that unanticipated changes in U.S. monetary policy and economic policy uncertainty have on the Chinese housing, equity, and loan markets. We find the decline in the U.S. policy rate since the Great Recession has led to a significant increase in Chinese housing investment. One possible reason for this effect is the substantial increase in the inflow of “hot money” into China. The responses of Chinese variables to U.S. shocks at the zero lower bound are different from those responses in normal times.