业务外包风险分析及其识别研究

业务外包在当今全球化的背景下发展十分迅猛。各个机构通过确定自己的产业边界将非核心业务外包给服务供应商,以此来达到节约成本,聚集资源,发展核心业务,增加核心竞争力的目的。但各机构在享受外包带来好处的同时也承受着风险。本文在文献调研和自身研究积累的基础上对外包中存在的风险进行了分析和识别,为企业在外包过程中做出正确的决策提供借鉴。     

Arbitrators’ characteristics and decision-making records,gender of arbitrators and grievants,and the presence of legal counsel as predictors of arbitral outcomes

Labor arbitration helps define employee and employer rights and responsibilities. Evidence indicates that the advocates at arbitration tend to concern themselves with issues unrelated to the facts of the case or to the rights and responsibilities of the parties involved. More specifically, before the hearing, management and union advocates often dwell on issues such as the importance of the arbitrators’ personal characteristics and their decision-making history, the likely effects of the gender of arbitrators and grievants, and whether the presence of legal counsel impacts the arbitral outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine whether these non-case-related factors actually can be associated with differing awards by arbitrators. This study may be the first in which the arbitrators’ decision-making history (award orientation) is a primary issue. Of all the issues studied, the arbitrator’s disciplinary award orientation is the only one with a consistent impact on arbitral outcomes. We conclude that the energy and resources expended by the advocates concerning non-case-related issues would be better spent in preparing their cases for arbitration and in examining the potential impact of arbitration on the rights and responsibilities of management and its employees.     

基于产权的企业家人力资本定价探讨

文章介绍了企业家人力资本的产权特征,结合体制改革、效用变化分析了企业家人力资本定价的制度变迁,最后试图建立与产权相符的企业家人力资本定价制度。     

On the informational content of advice: a theoretical and experimental study

This paper examines the market for advice and the underlying perception that advice is useful and informative. We do this by first providing a theoretical examination of the informational content of advice and then by setting up a series of experimental markets where this advice is sold. In these markets we provide bidders with a demographic profile of the “experts” offering advice.The results of our experiment generate several interesting findings. The raw bid data suggest that subjects bid significantly more for data than they do for advice. Second, in the market for advice there appears to be no consensus as to who are the best advisors although on average economists demand the highest mean price and women suffer a discount. In addition, we find that whether a subject suffers from a representativeness bias in the way he or she processes data has an impact on how he or she bids for advice and on his or her willingness to follow it once offered. Finally, we find that on average people impute a low level of informativeness onto advice, consistent with their bidding behavior for data versus advice.This work was done under grant number SES-0425118 of the National Science Foundation. The authors would like to recognize the Center for Experimental Social Science at New York University for its additional support. We also acknowledge the help of Elizabeth Potamites for her research assistance.     

基于行为决策理论的投资决策研究：发展及实践意义

以“理性人”假设为基础的传统财务决策理论将决策者独立于投资决策过程之外，认为决策者完全能够依据理性决策模型做出最优的决策，但现实并非如此。本文对行为决策理论中关于投资决策的研究文献进行了梳理，揭示了决策者的行为特征会影响到投资决策及投资回报率的设定，展望了行为决策理论在我国的发展前景及实践意义。     

“60前”消费者玩转高科技产品基于反向代际影响调节作用的实证研究

针对1960年以前出生的50岁以上、居住在城市的消费者,研究了不同年龄、教育背景和月收入水平的年长消费者在高科技产品购买意愿方面的差异性,以及决策风格对于高科技产品购买意愿的影响。此外,本文还探讨了年轻一代对于年长消费者的影响,即反向代际影响对于研究人群的决策风格与高科技产品购买意愿之间关系的调节作用。本文通过研究发现不同年龄、教育背景和月收入水平的年长消费者在面对高科技产品时的购买意愿不同。同时,消费者的购物决策风格也会影响到消费者对于高科技产品的购买意愿。此外,反向代际影响对于决策风格和购买意愿之间的关系具有正向调节作用。最后,本文还根据研究结果给出了相应的管理建议。     

The impact of consumer decision‐making styles on consumer confusion in Mauritius: An empirical analysis

This article investigates the effects of consumer decision‐making styles on consumer confusion and harm. While consumer confusion has been well documented in the literature, this investigation attempts to bridge our understanding on its relationship with consumer decision‐making styles. Empirical data was collected from a field survey where 400 consumers selected at 20 supermarkets in Mauritius were asked to respond to a questionnaire measuring three variables under study: consumer confusion, consumer decision‐making styles, and situational factors. Findings from the MANOVA parametric test showed that there is a significant difference between consumer decision‐making styles and consumer confusion. Even when covariate situational factors were controlled through the parametric test MANCOVA, results still showed a significant difference between consumer decision‐making styles and consumer confusion. More specifically, ANCOVA tests showed that the findings were specifically significant for three types of confusion: product confusion, packaging confusion, and product complexity. The study tends to confirm that a consumer's style of decision making does impact on consumer confusion.     

An Intelligent Distributed System for Strategic Decision Making

The decision-making process in strategic planning is often too complex to be handled by conventional methods. Strategic planning problems (building new plans, new product planning, etc.) belong to the class of problems called ill-structured by H. Simon. They involve a decomposition of the main problem into a set of subproblems, a reasoning process at the subproblem level, and then a coordinated and aggregated process to build a global solution. Because partial solutions are generated without having a complete view of the global objective, this type of decision-making process very often generates incoherent and contradictory hypotheses and actions. Therefore, the main problem is to find a way to achieve coherence and coordination among decisions made locally by different agents, at different levels.Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence, particularly in the field of multi-agent theory, offer great promises in modeling strategic planning processes. In this article we present a general framework called 'A Coherent Plan of Coordinated Actions (CPCA)' for building intelligent distributed strategic decision making systems which integrates advances in both distributed decision making and Distributed Artificial Intelligence. We then describe a multi-blackboard system, ARISTOTE, which is aimed at helping corporate managers address the feasibility and coherence of a plan of actions.     

存在冲突证据下的证据推理多属性决策方法

针对传统的证据推理方法对证据冲突处理能力的不足,在引入冲突参数的基础上提 出了新的证据推理算法,通过证明,新算法完全满足证据合成的4个公理。基于方案集间冲 突参数对决策结果影响差异最小化原则,提出了新的冲突参数优化模型,最后通过实例仿真 ,论证了新算法对解决证据间存在冲突时的多属性决策问题的可行性和优越性。     

多边共赢的供应链契约

供应链上的成员通过建立契约关系来协调各方的利益,分配供应链上新增加利润。在供应链契约中,商品的价格、数量、提前期、退货以及对拖延期限的惩罚等都是契约中的主要内容以及契约双方谈判的焦点。通过对契约中订货的数量、价格等供应链契约的决策变量的研究,建立了以契约为枢纽的网状供应链上每个成员能够获得"多赢"的"度"的量化模型。