绿色供应商选择研究

绿色供应商的选择应符合循环经济和绿色供应链的发展要求,运用直觉模糊多属性决策的方法,选择绿色供应链管理中绿色供应商可以使评选出的结果更加符合实际。     

Cluster Analysis in Data‐Driven Management and Decisions

Clustering plays an important role in management and decision‐making processes. This paper first discusses three types of cluster analysis methods—centroid‐based, connectivity‐based, and density‐based. Then the challenges to traditional clustering in new business environments are highlighted, with algorithmic extensions and innovative efforts for coping with data that is dynamic, large‐scale, representative, non‐convex, and consensus in nature. In addition, three application cases are illustrated, where clustering is incorporated into the overall solution in the contexts of management support, business of sharing economy, and healthcare decision assistance.     

Holiday taking decisions – The role of spouses

Grounded in part the previous literature on household decision making and in part in the literature on tourism decision making, this paper tries to add to the literature by surveying Turkish academics with respect to spousal purchase decisions. In particular, the study assesses the decision tactics used for several consumer goods including vacation and travel and the link between decision tactics and consumer satisfaction/likelihood to produce positive word of mouth. The study findings confirm that spousal opinions matter and that compromise is a commonly used tactic, regardless of their features of durability (e.g. car, furniture) or non-durability (e.g. vacation, eating out), followed by the introduction of persuasion as the next most powerful tactic. Compromise is also positively associated with the level of consumer/tourist satisfaction with the product and the intention to recommend.     

日（班）计划编制智能系统的研究

结合日（班）计划编制工作现状及问题，对日（班）计划编制及智能调整的必要性、可行性和效益进行分析，从系统的架构、功能及关键技术进行了阐述。     

Making Good Decisions with Minimal Information: Simultaneous and Sequential Choice

The adaptive pressures facing humans and other animals to make decisions quickly can be met both by increasing internal information-processing speed and by minimizing the amount of information to be used. Here we focus on the latter effect and ask how, and how well, agents can make good decisions with a minimal amount of information, using two specific tasks as examples. When a choice must be made between simultaneously-available options, minimal information in the form of binary recognition (whether or not each item is recognized) can be used in the recognition heuristic to choose effectively. When options are encountered sequentially one at a time, minimal information as to whether or not each option is the best encountered so far is sufficient to guide agents using a simple search-cutoff rule to high performance along several choice criteria. Both of these examples have important economic as well as biological applications, and show the power of simple fast and frugal heuristics to produce good decisions with little information. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Dynamic decision trees for building resilience into future eco-cities

Intensifying global urbanization and environmental changes bring about the imperative of sustainable urban development and decisions upon inescapable pressures and risks, but knowledge integration between disciplines is a limiting contextual challenge. This paper proposes a reformulation, in terms of urban risk management, of an earlier developed ontological scenario generation method. The procedure consists of several steps: (i) identification-and-prioritization of main pressures, (ii) paired discussion of pressures using four-cell matrices, (iii) re-visit of the pressures' priority order, (iv) articulation of short-listed pressures as decision-making questions, and (v) generation of scenarios via “yes/no” responses to each question, in their order of priority. In this article, the method feeds upon the general context described in recent multi-disciplinary urban studies and public strategic plans in the city of Iasi (Romania), to propose a formal procedure for enabling the acceleration of productive decision making towards city sustainability. Answering three top priority questions, namely “Implement a business-friendly and efficient governance system?”, “Develop a resource management system?”, and “Carry out a human capital accelerator strategy?” results in a 4-scenario set: Receding City, Wanting City, Promising City, Inspiring City. The scenarios are discussed in terms of systemic risks at the end of post-communist transition and beginning of the socio-economic convergence with Western Europe.     

多层次综合择优决策模型及应用

本文在对“模糊决策”进行深入研究的基础上,给出了多层次综合择优决策数学模型。首先提出了“效果值”的概念,解决了模糊排序中的一个难题,从而使决策结果择优更具科学性与合理性。该模型可广泛应用于社会、经济诸领域.     

民办教育税收问题探讨

民办教育的税收待遇应综合考虑其公益性、营利性、非营利性而定。我国民办教育存在的税收问题有:民办教育与公办教育税收待遇差别较大、民办教育税收政策营利性与非营利性不分等。应从完善教育法制、对税收政策进行营利性与非营利性区分、加强教育税收管理等方面进行完善。     

Reproducibility investigation of elicitation techniques in risk assessment for hydraulic turbines

Abstract

Certain elicitation techniques exert some control on expert opinions by leading them to a consensus or to a specific choice. In the absence of such guidelines, experts rely on their own knowledge to formulate opinions. This can result in large dispersions and affects the decision maker’s judgment. In this situation, we wonder what the relevant elicitation techniques are and how we can help experts to express their knowledge. From literature review, it is hard to decide if elicitation techniques are equivalent or not, which justifies the reproducibility analysis that we carry out in this paper. In this study, multiple experts have been involved in order to predict the defect size in hydraulic turbines, according to four proposed elicitation techniques. The comparison between these techniques was performed based on a suggested algorithm using the area metric concept. Our Findings show that elicitation techniques with ‘support’ tend to limit variations between experts and might be suitable only when prior knowledge on the expected elicited variable is available. Otherwise, we can end up with a distorted opinion of the elicited variable and an erroneous risk assessment.