Reproducibility investigation of elicitation techniques in risk assessment for hydraulic turbines

Abstract

Certain elicitation techniques exert some control on expert opinions by leading them to a consensus or to a specific choice. In the absence of such guidelines, experts rely on their own knowledge to formulate opinions. This can result in large dispersions and affects the decision maker’s judgment. In this situation, we wonder what the relevant elicitation techniques are and how we can help experts to express their knowledge. From literature review, it is hard to decide if elicitation techniques are equivalent or not, which justifies the reproducibility analysis that we carry out in this paper. In this study, multiple experts have been involved in order to predict the defect size in hydraulic turbines, according to four proposed elicitation techniques. The comparison between these techniques was performed based on a suggested algorithm using the area metric concept. Our Findings show that elicitation techniques with ‘support’ tend to limit variations between experts and might be suitable only when prior knowledge on the expected elicited variable is available. Otherwise, we can end up with a distorted opinion of the elicited variable and an erroneous risk assessment.     

“小汽车家庭化”与宏观交通决策

我国部分城市和沿海发达地区已经进入“小汽车家庭化”的阶段。家庭对私人小汽车的需求极大地推动了我国汽车工业及其相关产业链的发展,但也带来了一系列严重的交通问题。根据对国外不同城市交通发展模式的分析,结合我国的具体国情,我国的宏观交通决策仍应坚持公共交通为主导,适度鼓励发展节能环保的微型汽车,对私人小汽车的使用方式进行引导,同时通过城市道路系统的改造和建立先进的交通管理系统,应对“小汽车家庭化”带来的挑战。     

Global modelling revisited

Reasons for the great impact of World Dynamics and Limits to Growth include their addressing the correct audience (the public), and the ability of systems dynamics clearly to handle and communicate information on complex and often little understood areas. Modelling projects should usually be global or national (not regional), draw heavily on mental and not just written and numerical databases, and have time horizons of perhaps 100 years. Sadly, critics of Worlds 2 and 3 have yet to come to grips with the fundamental messages presented there, although these messages are becoming increasingly vital.     

Programming for the Internet and Experiential Learning: a New Approach Incorporating a Constructed World

This paper reports on a novel approach taken by the author to the teaching of an Internet programming course targeted at final year diploma and second year degree students. The uniqueness of engineers and their identity is discussed, as is the self-constructed world and ways of knowing in which humankind operates. The novel approach to teaching a software-coding course, and this course’s underlying philosophies of learning, the approach taken in class-contact time, and the methods of interaction with the students are presented, along with the conventional structure, quantitative measures, outline, and assessment of the course. The effects and observations of approaches employed are discussed, and the quantitative outputs achieved are presented alongside the unquantifiable impressions, comments and positive feedback.     

Incorporating sustainability criteria into credit risk management

Does a commercial debtor's economic, environmental and social performance in terms of sustainability affect its credit risk rating? Does adding criteria aimed at assessing a lender's environmental, social or sustainability practices provide added value to traditional financial rating criteria? Many analyses have reported that a correlation exists between companies' environmental and their financial performance. We checked out the assertion that it ‘pays to be sustainable’ by analyzing the role that criteria pertaining to sustainability and environmental orientation play in the commercial credit risk management process. Our results show that sustainability criteria can be used to predict the financial performance of a debtor and improve the predictive validity of the credit rating process. We conclude that the sustainability a firm demonstrates influences its creditworthiness as part of its financial performance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Tax reform and collective family decision-making

Traditional analysis of tax reform treats market behaviour as arising out of individual utility maximisation. In this paper, behaviour is modelled as the Pareto-efficient outcome of a family decision process. Conditions for the existence of a feasible, Pareto-improving tax change are presented and contrasted with those that obtain in the individualistic case. The consequences of treating households as a single individual are also discussed.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.     

Finite-dimensional utilities

Summary. Sufficient axioms are identified for the existence of a finite- dimensional quasilinear utility function whose lexicographically ordered vectors preserve a decision maker's preference order on a mixture set . It is shown that those axioms are also necessary for the linear lexicographic representation when the underlying set is a mixture space. Received: August 20, 1998; revised version: December 14, 1998     

Provision of Step-Level Public Goods with Uncertain Provision Threshold and Continuous Contribution

Common to most theoretical and empirical research on public goods is the assumption that the parameters of the game are common knowledge. Recent theoretical and empirical studies have questioned this assumption by arguing that many public goods situations are characterized by uncertainty regarding various aspects of the situation. In particular, Suleiman (1997) argued that members of production groups of step-level public goods are often uncertain about the value of the provision threshold. For this type of uncertainty he proposed three distinct models to account for the individual's contribution.The present study reports the results of an experiment designed primarily to test and contrast the predictions derived from two of these models – a subjective expected utility model and a cooperative model – regarding the effects of threshold uncertainty on contribution for the provision of step-level public goods. Other goals of the study were to test the joint effect of the threshold uncertainty level, and its mean (low vs. high), on contribution, and to examine the effect of threshold uncertainty on the individuals' estimates regarding the contributions of other group members.The results show that the effect of threshold uncertainty is moderated by the threshold mean: Contribution to the public good increased as a function of uncertainty for the lower threshold mean, and decreased (though not significantly) for the higher threshold mean. In contrast, for the two threshold means the subjects' estimates of the mean and variability of others' contribution increased with threshold uncertainty.The models' comparison revealed that the cooperative model was superior to the subjective expected utility model. This result adds to a substantial body of research on social dilemmas showing that under conditions of social (strategic) uncertainty, group members tacitly coordinate their choice behavior by anchoring their decisions on rules of fairness.     

The Moderating Effect of Individuals' Perceptions of Ethical Work Climate on Ethical Judgments and Behavioral Intentions

Dimensions of the ethical work climate, as conceptualized by Victor and Cullen (1988), are potentially important influences on individual ethical decision-making in the organizational context. The present study examined the direct and indirect effects of individuals' perceptions of work climate on their ethical judgments and behavioral intentions regarding an ethical dilemma. A national sample of marketers was surveyed in a scenario-based research study. The results indicated that, although perceived climate dimensions did not have a direct effect on behavioral intentions, there were significant moderating effects. Climates perceived as emphasizing social responsibility and rules/codes moderated the individual ethical judgment-behavioral intentions relationship such that individuals were less likely to say that they would engage in a questionable selling practice even when they themselves did not believe the practice to be unethical. Respondents were somewhat more likely to form intentions consistent with their judgment that the questionable practice was morally acceptable when the ethical climate was characterized by an emphasis on team/friendship.