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91.
92.
This paper proposes an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, which extends the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1998). The asymmetry consists of letting the duration process depend on the state of the price process. If the price has increased, the parameters of the ACD model can differ from what they are if the price has decreased. The model is applied to the bid-ask quotes of two stocks traded on the NYSE and the evidence in favour of asymmetry is strong. Information effects (Easley and O'Hara 1992) are also empirically relevant. As the model is a transition model for the price process, it delivers `market forecasts' of where prices are heading. A trading strategy based on the model is implemented using tick-by-tick data.While remaining responsible for any error in this paper, the authors would like to thank R. Anderson, G. Le Fol, C. Gouriéroux, J. Jasiak, W. Pohlmeier, A. Roell, O. Scaillet, S. Wei and three anonymous referees for useful remarks and suggestions on previous versions. The authors would also like to thank A. Ruttiens from KBC-CBC for useful discussions on practical issues related to trading. Support of the European Commission Human Capital and Mobility Program through the network `Econometric inference using simulation methods' is gratefully acknowledged. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Program on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Minister's Office, Science Policy Programming. The scientific responsibility is assumed by the authors. 相似文献
93.
In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated. 相似文献
94.
Joseph C. Cooper 《Environmental and Resource Economics》1993,3(6):563-579
This paper presents a dynamic model that determines the optimal number of deer hunting permit sales, subject to the objective of maximizing the discounted economic benefits stream from both the consumptive and nonconsumptive uses of deer. This bioeconomic model integrates economic benefits estimated using the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method with biological growth constraints on deer. Using a hunting zone in California as a case study, the model found that the optimal levels of buck hunting permits sold should change on a rotational basis over time and that the current practice of not selling doe hunting permits for that zone is non optimal. 相似文献
95.
Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form
of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable
where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions
such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards
an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates
these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s Sb distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions
are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume
at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions. 相似文献
96.
The paper attempts to identify the telecom-sector performance indicators, relevant economic variables, and institutional characteristics
of a country that effect the process of privatization of state-owned telecom enterprises. Using standard duration analysis
of a panel data, we demonstrate that the privatization incentives are not only shaped by the mobility of financial capital
in a country but are also influenced by the degree of competitiveness of private sector participation in policy-making process.
The empirical results also reveal the significant impact of productive efficiency in telecom service provision on its course
to privatization.
We thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. We are solely responsible for all mistakes. 相似文献
97.
The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the
last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the
current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of
the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The
results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current
account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted
expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account.
First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001 相似文献
98.
循环经济认知误区的实证分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
王文中 《生态经济(学术版)》2006,(4):94-98
随着传统经济增长模式危机的出现,世界各国纷纷提出并开始建立循环经济。循环经济作为一种崭新的社会经济发展模式,人们对其认识还存在种种误区,其中认为循环经济是一种最终实现“全新的封闭式的零排放的资源利用方式”、“可解决一切环境问题”的观点最为典型。那么,是否真的存在完美的全社会物质循环呢?实现这种循环的代价是什么?本文以物质循环为基本假设条件,应用扩张环境分析用投入产出模型对社会实现全循环的可能性进行了理论探讨.并以日本为例应用该模型对日本物质循环现状和在现有条件下实现全循环的可能性及其成本进行了实证分析,论证了在现有条件下实现全社会完美的物质循环的难点。 相似文献
99.
物流发展IGJAHP评价模型及空间格局分析--以安徽省为例 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
采用模糊区间层次分析法(IGJAHP),构筑物流产业发展综合评价模型,对安徽省物流发展的总体水平进行测算,并将其进程划分为恢复建设、缓慢发展、快速发展以及现代物流发展等四个阶段;在综合分析的基础上,把安徽省物流划分为皖江物流发展轴,合肥、蚌埠、阜阳物流大三角,东部外围和中西部等四大空间格局;而后,对安徽省17个地市历年物流发展水平进行评估,并计算物流发展地域差异系数,结果显示安徽省物流发展在空间上呈现地域差异扩大的趋势,在时间上经历了分散阶段和集中化阶段两个过程;然后,对安徽省物流生成量进行科学测算,分析显示其空间分布比较均匀。最后,从综合物流网络、物流信息通道、物流企业再造以及物流法规等方面提出发展对策。 相似文献
100.
The Bank of England first acquired a macroeconomic model of the UK economy in early 1973, and used it for forecasting in June and July of that year. The initial model was obtained from the London Business School (LBS), but the last 14 years or so have, on the part of both the Bank and the LBS, led to developments which now make the models no closer to each other than to other large scale models of the UK. This article describes the structure and central properties of the current version of the Bank model, which has some 663 variables, 134 of which are modelled by behavioural equations, 153 by technical equations, 212 identities and 164 exogenous variables. In order to provide a transitional step between the kind of models with which most macroeconomists are familiar and the full scale version of the Bank model, one part of the article presents a very simple stylized version of the full model. This is a stepping stone to the full model which is described and analysed on a sectoral basis in Part 3, with a complete listing of equations in Part 4. Some of the simulation properties, and hence full model dynamic responses, are considered in Part 5. 相似文献