Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.     

A LITERATURE SURVEY ON PROPOSED AFRICAN MONETARY UNIONS

This study provides a survey of recent advances in the literature on proposed African monetary unions. The survey comprises about 70 empirical papers published during the past 15 years. Four main strands are discussed individually and collectively. They comprise the proposed: (i) West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), (ii) East African Monetary Union (EAMU), (iii) Southern African Monetary Union (SAMU) and (iv) African Monetary Union (AMU). We observe a number of issues with establishing the feasibility and/or desirability of potential monetary unions, inter alia, they are variations in: choice of variables, empirical strategies, sampled countries and considered periodicities. We address this ambiguity by reviewing studies with scenarios that are consistent with Hegelian dialectics and establish selective expansion as the predominant mode of monetary integration. Some proponents make cases for strong pegs and institutions as viable alternatives to currency unions. Using cluster analysis, disaggregating panels into sub-samples and distinguishing shocks from responses in the examination of business cycle synchronisation provide more subtle policy implications. We caution that for inquiries using the same theoretical underpinnings, variables and methods just by modifying the scope/context and periodicity may only contribute to increasing the number of conflicting findings. Authors should place more emphasis on new perspectives and approaches based on caveats of, and lessons from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and CFA zones.     

Is there decentralization in North Korea? Evidence and lessons from the sloping land management program 2004–2014

In the 1990s, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) suffered from severe food shortages and large-scale deforestation, which triggered a stage of rural conservation reform. Since 2004, with support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), North Korea’s Ministry of Land and Environmental Protection (MoLEP) has implemented a Sloping Land Management Program (SLMP). The SLMP established sloping land user groups and granted these groups the right to use marginal land for agroforestry development. This devolution of land rights from state control onto local groups is a landmark in North Korea, and this decentralization initiative has now expanded to over eight counties to involve thousands of households. It has also led to the launch of a National Agroforestry Policy and Strategy. Drawing from both qualitative and quantitative data collected from 2008 to 2014, this paper documents the process and effects of the SLMP. It argues that the decentralization reform in land management has contributed to not only food security with increased food crop diversity and productivity, but also notably forest recovery through an expansion of tree plantations and agroforestry practices on degraded sloping lands. However, an insufficient power transfer in the form of a lack of timber rights granted to the local user groups has hampered the effectiveness of the SLMP. There are also institutional and geopolitical challenges that are limiting further scaling-up of land-use decentralization across the country. The policy implication calls for more international investment as well as national land-use policy reforms in order to promote and facilitate further decentralization of sloping land management and to secure greater use rights for sloping land user groups.     

广东万绿湖生态旅游集聚区旅游新业态发展研究

生态旅游产业集聚区是旅游产业转型的一种创新型产业形态,有利于实现旅游产业规模经济效应,丰富区域旅游品牌,促进地方旅游经济的发展。广东省河源市拥有良好的生态旅游区景色及国家一级地表饮用水源,是具有较强的旅游吸引力的地接型城市,作为广东水源保护地,生态屏障区,应从循环经济、可持续发展、生态学角度,构建生态旅游集聚区经济模式,并采取切实措施,使生态旅游与环境保护平衡发展。     

The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output

The European Commission follows a harmonized approach for calculating structural (potential) output for EU member states that takes into account labour as an important ingredient. This article shows how the recent huge migrants’ inflow to Europe affects trend output. Due to the fact that the immigrants immediately increase the working population but effectively do not enter the labour market, we illustrate that the potential output is potentially upward biased without any corrections. Taking Germany as an example, we find that the average medium-term potential growth rate is lower if the migration flow is modelled adequately compared to results based on the unadjusted European Commission procedure.     

亚热带地区国有林场可持续经营指标体系研究

通过实地调查研究,借鉴已发布的国际、国家、地区、经营单位层面森林可持续经营标准和指标,以森林可持续经营为主要内容,对亚热带地区国有林场森林经营、人力资源、社会资源等方面进行研究,构建出亚热带地区国有林场可持续经营指标体系,为亚热带地区国有林场可持续经营提供理论借鉴,期盼为制定亚热带地区森林可持续经营指标提供借鉴。     

Stakeholder perceptions and governance challenges in urban protected area management: The case of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area,Philippines

The conservation and management of protected areas in urban settings has become increasingly challenging with dynamics over land use change in adjacent urban areas being highly relevant to, but at times conflicting with, the protected area. This study seeks to better understand the implications of land use change processes to urban protected area management through the case study of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area (LPPCHEA) in Metro Manila, Philippines. Factors and processes influencing land use change and protected area management and the impact of stakeholders’ perceptions on protected area were analyzed. The urban protected area in itself has limited influence on its surrounding urban areas, as land use change in these areas is shaped more by social, economic and policy/institutional factors occurring within the context of urban-regional development. The study also found that land use conflict is evident in an urban protected area due to the competing ecosystem services derived by various stakeholders. This discord is deepened by the lack of coordination between land use planning and protected area management. Integrating protected area management with land use planning through legally binding instruments, specific timeframes and clear internal procedures can help resolve land use conflict for an urban protected area at the strategic or policy level.     

新时期秦巴地区发展电子商务物流现状分析及对策研究

近年来,电子商务发展迅速,但由于历史原因,秦巴地区由于各方面条件欠缺,电子商务物流发展缓慢.因此,我们必须根据实际,找准问题,推动秦巴地区电子商务物流跨越式发展.     

阿联酋粮食战略储备项目的先进性和创新性

阿联酋粮食战略储备项目，筒仓仓容276760 t，粮食品种为小麦和稻谷，项目建设点储粮环境恶劣，图纸审查严格，整个项目设计均采用最先进的技术，并严格遵循欧美规范和标准进行设计。     

关于建设国际化大都市的若干思考——基于西安的经济和产业发展情况进行分析

本文通过研究国际化大都市的定位和特征,以西安为例探讨如何建设国际化大都市,并进一步分析西安高新区作为要建成世界一流科技产业园区的高新技术产业开发区,如何发挥其示范引领作用。