Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm

This article draws from the experience of the ongoing drafting of the Regional Plan of the Centre Region of Portugal, and the empirical application of the Social Vulnerability Index proposed by Susan Cutter. It consists in the construction of an index of social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards and to social risks for all the municipalities of the region. Methodologically, it extends the vulnerability analysis to technological hazards and social risks, as a more encompassing view is necessary for the elaboration of prevention and civil protection policies. The results confirm the interactive nature of social vulnerability, and they also reflect the diffuse urbanisation and industrialisation patterns that characterise Portugal. The scattered nature of social facilities and security and health infrastructures pose specific challenges to planners concerning risk prevention and mitigation, and the elaboration of effective risk communication strategies adapted to specific hazards and risks in the studied municipalities. The article concludes with some reflections on the need to revise established paradigms of disaster analysis and emphasise the importance of pre‐event planning and the social cartography of vulnerable populations for effective prevention and security policies that take into account social inequalities and citizenship rights.     

Application of Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) and delineation of natural risk zones in Greater Lisbon,Portugal

Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) was applied to Greater Lisbon (Portugal). Based on the concepts used for the SoVI assessments in the US, 46 variables representing social vulnerability of the 149 civil parishes of Greater Lisbon were chosen. Thirty-eight variables were selected after application of correlation tests. They were standardized, and a Principal Component Analysis and a Varimax rotation were applied to them. Seven factors were extracted using the Kaiser criterion, which explain 79.5% of the variance, and the SoVI scores were then mapped using a standard deviation classification. Twelve of the 149 civil parishes of Greater Lisbon have a very high social vulnerability and 24 of them have a high social vulnerability. The map of SoVI was then integrated with susceptibility maps of earthquakes, floods, flash floods, landslides, tsunami, and coastal erosion, thus delineating risk zones. Twenty-two civil parishes of Greater Lisbon have a very high risk; among them, 17 belong to Lisbon Municipality, four belong to Loures Municipality, and one belongs to Vila Franca de Xira Municipality. Finally, exposed population was considered and combined with risk zones map in order to assess the number of people being potentially exposed to risk and their location.     

城乡二元结构、三农问题与城镇化关系研究

1954年,美国著名经济学家刘易斯（W.A.Lewis,1915-1991）首次提出了二元经济结构理论。后经费景汉、拉尼斯和乔根森等人加以修改和发展,被认为是研究发展中国家经济的普遍理论。中国是个传统的农业大国,二元经济结构既包括工业与农业的对立,也包括城市与农村的对立。本文综合分析我国城乡二元经济结构的形成、城乡二元经济结构带来的＂三农＂问题与城镇化关系。城乡二元经济是现代化经济发展的阻碍,城镇化是解决我国城乡二元经济结构的根本出路。本文最后为加快城镇化建设、解决＂三农＂问题提出有效的建议。     

The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: the case of Portugal

In this article, I analyse the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy on the Portuguese economy. I show that a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) a contraction of real GDP and a substantial increase of the unemployment rate; (ii) a quick fall in the commodity price and a gradual decrease of the price level and (iii) a downward correction of the stock price index. It also produces a ‘short-lived liquidity effect’ and helps explain the negative comovement between bonds and stocks. In addition, I find evidence suggesting the existence of a money demand function characterized by small output and interest rate elasticities. By its turn, the central bank’s policy rule follows closely the dynamics of the money markets. Finally, both the real GDP and the price level in Portugal would have been higher during almost the entire sample period if there were no monetary policy surprises.     

Measuring the natural yield curve

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the natural yield curve (NYC) – the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to directly affect long-term interest rates (e.g. via quantitative easing) the gap between the short-term real and natural rate is no more a good indicator of the monetary policy stance. We estimate the NYC on US data, document its main properties and show i.a. that in the period 2008 to 2011 the NYC allows to better capture the US monetary policy stance than the short-term natural rate.     

Economic structure and factor payments

There is a growing body of evidence that the labour payment share in national income varies across countries and over time, suggesting that the popular aggregate Cobb–Douglas production function may not capture income share dynamics. There remains conflicting evidence on the importance of natural resource rents among low income economies and on estimates of the rate of return to produced capital. This paper focuses on the structural differences among countries, confirming the importance of the agriculture sector in estimates of labour and land’s share of factor income based on 81 countries at diverse levels of economic development in the year 2005. I find that cross-country data are best modelled by a CES production function with an elasticity of substitution of 0.8 and that many low income countries have a higher return to capital than the United States.     

Overcoming environmental scarcity,inequality and structural imbalance in the world economy

The world economy faces two major threats: increasing environmental degradation and a growing gap between rich and poor. The root cause is that natural resources—or natural capital—is underpriced, and hence overly exploited, whereas human capital—the skills embodied in the workforce—is insufficient to meet demand. This outcome has three important consequences. First, all sectors of an economy will use too much natural resources relative to skilled labor. Second, the skilled workers throughout the economy will have higher real incomes and thus will be better off. Third, wealth inequality will increase, as the income gap between skilled and unskilled workers widens. Addressing this structural imbalance requires correcting the two underlying distortions, which are the chronic under-pricing of natural capital and the under-investment in human capital. This must be accompanied by a new suite of policies to provide improved incentives for more balanced wealth creation.     

On the origins of vertical unbundling: The case of the French transportation industry in the nineteenth century

Abstract

This paper retraces the origins of the unbundling of infrastructure, which is a monopoly, from services, which are subject to competition. Using the case of the railroad industry in France, I examine how both natural monopoly theorists and legislation dealt with this subject in the nineteenth century. I argue that the origins of vertical unbundling date to this period with legislation pertaining to inland waterways and railroads. This was particularly the case for the railroad industry due to pricing and competition rationales. I analyze the writings of Dupuit and Walras, and show that they both agreed that infrastructure and services had to be unbundled for the inland waterways. In contrast, they expressed different justifications to defend the monopoly for the railroad industry. Following a chronological progression, the first section explores the origins of unbundling in legislation. The second section analyzes how theorists approached the way railroads had to be managed. Throughout, I highlight the interplay between their work and legislation.     

Russia's Gas Sector: In Need of Liberalization in the Context of the Shale Gas Revolution and Energy Relations with the European Union

Rising gas production from nonconventional deposits in North America and the possibility of growth in the rest of the world pose a serious challenge to Russian energy interests. Although Russia has the largest proven gas reserves and is the number one exporter of fossil fuels, its position as a dominant gas supplier to the European Union (EU) is diminishing. This article examines the main problems of Russia's gas sector in the context of the shale gas revolution and the liberalization of the EU gas market. The article also analyses the perspectives of Russia's energy relations with EU countries and formulates some recommendations for them.     

两型社会建设背景下湖南农村生态消费发展对策研究

两型社会建设是生态文明建设的重要途径,生态消费是两型社会建设的基石。作为湖南最大的消费者群体,湖南农村消费者是湖南生态消费和两型社会建设的一支重要生力军,应当有所作为。但是现阶段湖南省农村生产消费中还存在着农业资源的高投入、非可持续发展、粗放式生产、资源浪费程度高等一些生产性消费问题和重消费、轻环保,消费观念相对落后、消费结构不合理等一些生活性消费问题,农村生态消费的建设和发展需要通过政府的引导和激励,也需要通过加强农村的消费教育吸引更多的农村消费者来参与。